2024 Tropical Atlantic Discussion and Pre-invest thread

[MaineJay]

Buckle up.

 

[clm]

3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Buckle up.

 

Looks like another active season this year.  Though the major question is, how many of them will hit the NE coast?  We were very lucky last year.  But luck only goes so far.  For LI is not the # of storms that comes up here, its that one major one that does.  

 

[Iceresistance]

 

[StretchCT]

Some perspective over the last few years

2023 El Nino season (1.3 ONI for JAS) had 20 named storms and ACE of 146

2022 La Nina season (-0.9)  had 14 named storms  and ACE of 95 but was the third costliest season

2021 La Nina season (-0.5) had 21 named storms and ACE of 146 and was the fourth costliest

2020 Early La Nina season (-0.6)  had 30 named storms Ace of 180 and was the 7th costliest

2019 Neutral (0.1) had 18 named storms, ACE of 132

Models are hinting at a stronger La Nina which could maybe mitigate some of the damage similar to the 2022 season.  Although 2010 had a -1.3 ONI and was a pretty bad season with 19 storms and 165 ACE.

It's funny (not funny) that I went to look up the average ACE and the first answer I got was 93, but that was until 2000.  The 2020 revised mean/average is below that quoted section. So technically 2022 was below normal ACE. 

NOAA definitions of above-normal, near-normal, and below-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons

The 1950-2000 mean value of the ACE index is 93.7, and the median value is 86.0

Above-normal season: An ACE index value well above 103 (103 corresponds to 120% of the median ACE value or 110% of the mean), or an ACE value slightly above 103 combined with at least two of the following three parameters being above the long-term average: number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.

Near-normal season: An ACE index value in the range 66-103 (corresponding to 76%-120% of the median or 70%-110% of the mean), or an ACE index value slightly above 103 but with less than two of the following three parameters being above the long-term average: numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.

Below-normal season: An ACE index value below 66, corresponding to below 76% of the median or 70% of the mean.

 

UPDATED ACE METRICS

Measuring total overall seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index

The phrase "total overall seasonal activity" refers to the combined intensity and duration of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes occurring during the season. The measure of total seasonal activity used by NOAA is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The ACE index is a wind energy index, defined as the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed (knots) measured every six hours for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity. The 1991-2020 mean value of the ACE index is 122.1 x 10⁴ kt², and the median value is 129.5 x 10⁴ kt². With most of 1991-2020 being in an active era, using ACE values from 1951-2020 is more representative of the possible ranges of activity that can result in similar ACE values. The 1951-2020 ACE median is 96.7 x 10⁴ kt²

The following classifications are based on an approximate tercile partitioning of seasons based on the ACE index, combined with the seasonal number of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.

• Extremely active season: An ACE index above 159.6 x 10⁴ kt² (corresponding to 165% of the 1951-2020 median).
  
• Above-normal season: An ACE index above 126.1 x 10⁴ kt² (corresponding to the 67th percentile of the ACE values from 1951-2020).
  
• Below-normal season:An ACE index below 73.0 x 10⁴ kt² (corresponding to less than 33rd percentile of the values from 1951-2020 median).
  
• Near-normal season: Neither the above- nor below-normal season criteria are met.

[StretchCT]

[Organicforecasting]

Quote

Number of Named Storms: 26
Tropical Storms: 15
Category 1-2: 6
Category 3-5: 5

Regional (where they will form):
West Atlantic (to 45° W): 12
East Atlantic (to 45° W): 7
Gulf of Mexico: 3
Caribbean: 4

The above will be Mizzou's entry to the website provided by CSU for multiple entities to show off their predictions. Speaking of which...they have 11 entries right now.

 

https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/forecast/seasonal-predictions

[clm]

Came upon this article today.  

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/a-look-at-how-the-hurricane-forecast-cone-will-be-different-in-2024/ar-AA1nCkxo?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=b59f3fff5f8a4e2caf115111be5feff1&ei=189