Admin MaineJay Posted February 20 Admin Share Posted February 20 Buckle up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 hours ago, MaineJay said: Buckle up. Looks like another active season this year. Though the major question is, how many of them will hit the NE coast? We were very lucky last year. But luck only goes so far. For LI is not the # of storms that comes up here, its that one major one that does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 26 Moderators Share Posted February 26 Some perspective over the last few years 2023 El Nino season (1.3 ONI for JAS) had 20 named storms and ACE of 146 2022 La Nina season (-0.9) had 14 named storms and ACE of 95 but was the third costliest season 2021 La Nina season (-0.5) had 21 named storms and ACE of 146 and was the fourth costliest 2020 Early La Nina season (-0.6) had 30 named storms Ace of 180 and was the 7th costliest 2019 Neutral (0.1) had 18 named storms, ACE of 132 Models are hinting at a stronger La Nina which could maybe mitigate some of the damage similar to the 2022 season. Although 2010 had a -1.3 ONI and was a pretty bad season with 19 storms and 165 ACE. It's funny (not funny) that I went to look up the average ACE and the first answer I got was 93, but that was until 2000. The 2020 revised mean/average is below that quoted section. So technically 2022 was below normal ACE. NOAA definitions of above-normal, near-normal, and below-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons The 1950-2000 mean value of the ACE index is 93.7, and the median value is 86.0 Above-normal season: An ACE index value well above 103 (103 corresponds to 120% of the median ACE value or 110% of the mean), or an ACE value slightly above 103 combined with at least two of the following three parameters being above the long-term average: number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Near-normal season: An ACE index value in the range 66-103 (corresponding to 76%-120% of the median or 70%-110% of the mean), or an ACE index value slightly above 103 but with less than two of the following three parameters being above the long-term average: numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Below-normal season: An ACE index value below 66, corresponding to below 76% of the median or 70% of the mean. UPDATED ACE METRICS Measuring total overall seasonal activity: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index The phrase "total overall seasonal activity" refers to the combined intensity and duration of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes occurring during the season. The measure of total seasonal activity used by NOAA is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The ACE index is a wind energy index, defined as the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed (knots) measured every six hours for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity. The 1991-2020 mean value of the ACE index is 122.1 x 104 kt2, and the median value is 129.5 x 104 kt2. With most of 1991-2020 being in an active era, using ACE values from 1951-2020 is more representative of the possible ranges of activity that can result in similar ACE values. The 1951-2020 ACE median is 96.7 x 104 kt2 The following classifications are based on an approximate tercile partitioning of seasons based on the ACE index, combined with the seasonal number of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. Extremely active season: An ACE index above 159.6 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to 165% of the 1951-2020 median). Above-normal season: An ACE index above 126.1 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to the 67th percentile of the ACE values from 1951-2020). Below-normal season:An ACE index below 73.0 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to less than 33rd percentile of the values from 1951-2020 median). Near-normal season: Neither the above- nor below-normal season criteria are met. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 26 Moderators Share Posted March 26 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organicforecasting Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Quote Number of Named Storms: 26 Tropical Storms: 15 Category 1-2: 6 Category 3-5: 5 Regional (where they will form): West Atlantic (to 45° W): 12 East Atlantic (to 45° W): 7 Gulf of Mexico: 3 Caribbean: 4 The above will be Mizzou's entry to the website provided by CSU for multiple entities to show off their predictions. Speaking of which...they have 11 entries right now. https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/forecast/seasonal-predictions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 Came upon this article today. https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/a-look-at-how-the-hurricane-forecast-cone-will-be-different-in-2024/ar-AA1nCkxo?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=b59f3fff5f8a4e2caf115111be5feff1&ei=189 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 20 Moderators Share Posted May 20 Dr Cowans outlook - more storms than normal, not sure of where they go though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 20 Moderators Share Posted May 20 NHC director on the upcoming season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 20 Moderators Share Posted May 20 MJO on the other side for now. But GFS with this quasi TS that has persisted for days now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 24 Moderators Share Posted May 24 https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 24 Moderators Share Posted May 24 On 5/20/2024 at 9:58 AM, StretchCT said: MJO on the other side for now. But GFS with this quasi TS that has persisted for days now. First hash of the season. Only 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 11 Moderators Share Posted June 11 Another hash... This one has been modeled for a while, weak. Meanwhile parts of FL are going to be soaked, and then the central Gulf coast will get soaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 12 Moderators Share Posted June 12 You could argue this is a tropical storm. Winds over 40kts, Sfc temps around 26c, closed circulation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 14 Moderators Share Posted June 14 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 14 Moderators Share Posted June 14 (edited) On 6/11/2024 at 10:33 AM, StretchCT said: Meanwhile parts of FL are going to be soaked, and then the central Gulf coast will get soaked. Parts of FL over 2 feet of rain. Edited June 14 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 First tropical depression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Starting to get busy out there 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Interesting forecast. Though I doubt anything right now will come up through FL and hit Long Island right now. If that did happen, it would be just rain, remnants of a long past storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 28 Moderators Share Posted June 28 Busy in the MDR for late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 28 Moderators Share Posted June 28 2 hours ago, clm said: I doubt anything right now will come up through FL and hit Long Island right now. If that did happen, it would be just rain, remnants of a long past storm. Ahh - you don't know that I bought a boat and its on a mooring in Long Island Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 29 Moderators Share Posted June 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 29 Moderators Share Posted June 29 MJO really isn't in a good place to support this activity. Nevertheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 30 Moderators Share Posted June 30 GEM has two hitting Jamaica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 30 Moderators Share Posted June 30 If recon finds circulation, the winds for 94L in Campeche are there for a TS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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