Winter 2021-2022 | Outlooks and Discussion

[Hiramite]

It's been a somewhat unexpected winter season so far for some areas.  Where do we go from here?

2-17-22 outlook from the CPC.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html

[Central Illinois]

[so_whats_happening]

Yay nice setup!

So it does not look like we will have a split SPV.😔 There were talks and the models definitely tried to show some potential of this alas we go with a stretched SPV and a nice wave 1 displacement to take place. So it looks like a decent cold shot going into the last couple days of February into the first week of March that still looks to target much of the Midwest and western GL this go around with below average reaching into the east with some anomalies trying to push -15 during that timeframe. Our average of 43/44 and 24/25 at the end of the month should feel chilly. Unfortunately this amount of cold push tends to keep us dry so going to have to watch that down the road. Think of it comparatively to what would happen in the middle of winter if we got those -10 to -15 anomaly pushes the storm track gets pushed further SE. There is one caveat here and this could bode well for the region as the natural progression of the baroclinicity is to push further NW in time but needs to be watched for just how intense the cold may or may not be as to where that sets up and allows the storm track.

One thing to take note though is the potential of troposphere/ stratosphere connection. Again just one run but the models have been showing this here and there taking place in the near term as it shows the wave activity just south of Greenland helps induce the warming taking place into the stratosphere. This warming gets re-enforced but the constant wave activity. Once this slows down though we lose that warming taking place you can see this take place further in the run. That warming circles around the SPV as a wave and goes into the region of Northeast Asia where at the end of the 240 time frame you can see a nice ridge trying to take hold at not only the surface but up to 10mb. Nothing within Day 10 is ever final especially the surface depiction, but the activity that goes on aloft (10mb) is usually fairly reasonable to assume will hold in time. There will be continual changes that do take place but less overall change will happen in the stratosphere as compared to 500mb going through time. This was meant to just show the connection of how surface/500mb plays a role sometimes in the Stratosphere and our sensible weather down the road.

Theoretical Section:

I decided to include this as we seem to have folks in general taking this portion of the discussion as absolute so to nip that issue real quick I figured let me add this.

If I included further on in the run we have a really impressive ridge that gets cut off from flow at 500mb over the northern Alaska western Arctic ocean (from our perspective) this is in the same spot as a large ridge that takes hold at 10mb so this may have some staying power if this is correct. The Scandi ridge also pops up close to the end of the run these two are usually the pinch that is needed for a split scenario to take place but personally I find a split scenario, if it were to occur, into mid March would mean we continue colder conditions into April and beginning of May. Not ideal for anyone outdoor plans or severe weather but still we are talking at least 2 weeks to see if we get the cold to hold around the area through the first week of March, just under a month for that scenario to take place, again if it did. 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

How bout a -7 lol.

[StretchCT]

Euro weeklies - seems we're cycling at the right time. 

 

[MaineJay]

On 2/21/2022 at 9:41 AM, Sentenza said:

Hmm i wonder what a -4 EPO would mean for us on east coast? 🤔 

 

Got the same graph for PNA? I suspect the monster ridge poking into the Arctic is a player here. Coupled with a +PNA would likely bring plenty of cold, even neutral would likely be enough, but if the PNA goes negative, we probably have the same pattern we are in now. 

Beyond a week this forecast has some very wide spread too.

It could really go either way.

[so_whats_happening]

On 2/20/2022 at 8:50 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Yay nice setup!

So it does not look like we will have a split SPV.😔 There were talks and the models definitely tried to show some potential of this alas we go with a stretched SPV and a nice wave 1 displacement to take place. So it looks like a decent cold shot going into the last couple days of February into the first week of March that still looks to target much of the Midwest and western GL this go around with below average reaching into the east with some anomalies trying to push -15 during that timeframe. Our average of 43/44 and 24/25 at the end of the month should feel chilly. Unfortunately this amount of cold push tends to keep us dry so going to have to watch that down the road. Think of it comparatively to what would happen in the middle of winter if we got those -10 to -15 anomaly pushes the storm track gets pushed further SE. There is one caveat here and this could bode well for the region as the natural progression of the baroclinicity is to push further NW in time but needs to be watched for just how intense the cold may or may not be as to where that sets up and allows the storm track.

One thing to take note though is the potential of troposphere/ stratosphere connection. Again just one run but the models have been showing this here and there taking place in the near term as it shows the wave activity just south of Greenland helps induce the warming taking place into the stratosphere. This warming gets re-enforced but the constant wave activity. Once this slows down though we lose that warming taking place you can see this take place further in the run. That warming circles around the SPV as a wave and goes into the region of Northeast Asia where at the end of the 240 time frame you can see a nice ridge trying to take hold at not only the surface but up to 10mb. Nothing within Day 10 is ever final especially the surface depiction, but the activity that goes on aloft (10mb) is usually fairly reasonable to assume will hold in time. There will be continual changes that do take place but less overall change will happen in the stratosphere as compared to 500mb going through time. This was meant to just show the connection of how surface/500mb plays a role sometimes in the Stratosphere and our sensible weather down the road.

Theoretical Section:

I decided to include this as we seem to have folks in general taking this portion of the discussion as absolute so to nip that issue real quick I figured let me add this.

If I included further on in the run we have a really impressive ridge that gets cut off from flow at 500mb over the northern Alaska western Arctic ocean (from our perspective) this is in the same spot as a large ridge that takes hold at 10mb so this may have some staying power if this is correct. The Scandi ridge also pops up close to the end of the run these two are usually the pinch that is needed for a split scenario to take place but personally I find a split scenario, if it were to occur, into mid March would mean we continue colder conditions into April and beginning of May. Not ideal for anyone outdoor plans or severe weather but still we are talking at least 2 weeks to see if we get the cold to hold around the area through the first week of March, just under a month for that scenario to take place, again if it did. 

Can we call this a split? I mean im not sure I consider a little lobe like this one but interesting to see show up. Repeated large warming events seem to continue after this timeframe. Again having a potential of a split into mid march is not necessarily ideal lets continue to watch.

Edited February 23, 2022 by so_whats_happening

[Hiramite]