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January 23-26, 2024 | Upper MA/NE Sloppy Winter Weather Potential


MaineJay

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It's a minor event, but for the few of us in the far north of the region, we might squeeze something out of this.

Is more of an overrunning/SWFE type situation.   A little slug of moisture is gonna bump into a mid 1040s high pressure.  GFS with more juice than the ECMWF.

 Another NADS type event,  thought of extending three dates for a similar follow up event,  but there's enough time for that one to change. 

gfs_midRH_us_23.thumb.png.be0b535683077e09d6b0f81954281291.png

ecmwf_midRH_us_46.thumb.png.4a04581a69be17baa5c19a5a29d05acd.png

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Oh good - Jay made a thread for this.  Hoping this is just a front end thump then nothing!  Nice position of the high.

Screenshot2024-01-19at1_49_07PM.thumb.png.fedce88e6a9992b387994fe6781eb8f9.pngimage.thumb.png.ea2bca6ae0f20f832f70eb180d7805de.png

Screenshot2024-01-19at1_50_46PM.thumb.png.3fb1ec7ab65cebb8de57b9a18ee89f73.pngScreenshot2024-01-19at1_51_37PM.thumb.png.e0349e58430183cadda51881bb5d49fb.png

 

Edited by StretchCT
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Not much on the Euro

image.thumb.png.8f286bbcb25b21e884147179ae1793af.png 

GFS misses SNE, gets Boston north

image.thumb.png.737a3366f191c63d51874499f57b34d2.png

image.thumb.png.4bc419d6b06b914631914bbe79c50ad0.png

UKIE has some love as does the GEM

image.thumb.png.ed583dedf0ec9e8a922bc8138bc203ef.png 

image.thumb.png.f64ca05b26a9ff3acd931d80dcfa416f.png

ICON - misses me but gets most of us N or E of NYC

image.thumb.png.834c1f8c39171f3d0d97a825ca455508.png

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2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Not much on the Euro

image.thumb.png.8f286bbcb25b21e884147179ae1793af.png 

GFS misses SNE, gets Boston north

image.thumb.png.737a3366f191c63d51874499f57b34d2.png

image.thumb.png.4bc419d6b06b914631914bbe79c50ad0.png

UKIE has some love as does the GEM

image.thumb.png.ed583dedf0ec9e8a922bc8138bc203ef.png 

image.thumb.png.f64ca05b26a9ff3acd931d80dcfa416f.png

ICON - misses me but gets most of us N or E of NYC

image.thumb.png.834c1f8c39171f3d0d97a825ca455508.png

The 1040+ high pressure with meager, but sufficient moisture could mean a ZR situation, exact location TBD, but as @MDBlueridgeoften says, know you microclimate.

Could be a protracted event with several waves.

download(23).thumb.png.2b7c8fc2dfe8d53b83aa999bbd33a961.png

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53 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Some of the ensembles

models-2024012115-f075.sn10_024h-mean-imp.us_ne.gif.50f9227079406c25a5b1cdabf73dafee.gif

And the ops

models-2024012118-f072.sn10_024h-imp.us_ne.gif.f95c9749bddf017dd6d049ccfa5d6e18.gif

One of those situations where a degree or two can make or break.

image.thumb.png.b04b556b67ac8699488a13bd1e72c08d.png

 

Looking prettty good north of I90 all of a sudden, Will take a few inches for sure... before the switch over to rain that is

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0z HRRR long range makes this really interesting for I-80 north .. not much ZR, mostly a sleet/snow fest.  QPF not too bad either.  Up to 1" of sleet potential just on the north side of I-80 in PA, if this verified.

 

floop-hrrr-2024012200.ref1km_ptype.us_ne.gif

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CTP:

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models prog the aforementioned vort lobe to dampen/shear out
as it tracks to the north of PA within confluent flow extending
from the southern Great Lakes into the New England on Tuesday.
However, favorable RRQ upper jet dynamics combined with surging
moisture (PW anomalies reaching +2 sigma) driven by intensifying
WAA and isentropic upglide overrunning a retreating cold sector
will result in a stripe of frozen/freezing precip over the
northern tier of CPA Tuesday morning into the afternoon.

The expected light intensity of the precip is conducive for an
ice glaze with the highest probs across the northern tier/along
and north of I-80. Quick ptype transition from snow/sleet to
sleet/zr is anticipated with WPC/NBM/HREF FRAM ice accretions
of 0.01-0.10 inch. We anticipate a gradual transition to light
rain/drizzle over northern PA Tuesday night with some lingering
pockets of zr possible over the elevated terrain in the
north/east zones adjacent to the Endless Mtns and Poconos where
sfc temps hover near the freezing mark/32F. Rather mild Tuesday
night by late January standards with lows +10 to +20F above
climo. Expect low overcast with occasional light rain,
drizzle/mist and area of fog as relatively warm air moves over
cold, snow covered ground.

We will continue to highlight the icy mix and potential travel
impacts in the HWO. Consideration was given toward an advisory
with this forecast cycle, but decided to wait another shift
after collaborating with WFOs PBZ, BUF and BGM.

Cloudy, damp and relatively mild through midweek with periods
of light rain expected. Highs Wednesday reach the upper 30s to
lower 40s or +5 to 10F above climo with even larger departures
from normal for min temps in the 35-40F range or +15 to +25F.

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8 hours ago, Rickrd said:

Could be nasty for my friends up north and west. 
0z NAM and RDPS

 

 

 

 

 

IMG_8774.png

 

What is RGEM seeing that brings freezing rain so far south?  None of the others are showing anything but a whole lot of rain?

Edited by twinmama08
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