Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

[telejunkie]

Don't have time to get into it right now...but wanted to create space for the potential threat in this timeframe some have mentioned in the other thread. CPC weighing in on the potential for a late forming coastal storm to affect northern Mid-Atlantic and New England. Trough tilt will be key here.

[Penn State]

This is another good timeframe.. The NOAA CPC 6-10 day analogs have some notable dates.. including January 5th, 1996. Of course, this preceding one of the more famed events that we discuss. I also read that this was a transition period out of the -NAO, which also adds support. 

[Pghsnow]

CMC

[Penn State]

Feels a bit better with the H's to the north.. looks promising on the GFS.

[Penn State]

Now showing on the Euro too.. Good recognition! @telejunkie

[Penn State]

I hope.. especially if the other threat bites the dust.. that it opens this door. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 hour ago, Penn State said:

Feels a bit better with the H's to the north.. looks promising on the GFS.

This is the more classic look for sure, Almost a banana High

1 hour ago, Penn State said:

I hope.. especially if the other threat bites the dust.. that it opens this door. 

I hope it also shuts the winter door. LOL. I'm good to wait for the MJO response in early Feb to deliver better prospects

[Wnwniner]

10 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I hope it also shuts the winter door. LOL. I'm good to wait for the MJO response in early Feb to deliver better prospects

OK Newbie question-I lurk in the NE forums a lot because, well, i love snow and there is A LOT of knowledge here.  I've read a few times about how different metrics/teleconnections sometimes take a while to influence weather, is that not the case with the ocean temps and MJO?  Is there not a response lag between when the indicator moves into the next phase and when the pattern "changes"?  

[Penn State]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

This is the more classic look for sure, Almost a banana High

I hope it also shuts the winter door. LOL. I'm good to wait for the MJO response in early Feb to deliver better prospects

The pattern does look to reload the second half of January… I’m feeling a Super Bowl weekend storm. You know.. so we can have that Monday off lol.. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

12 minutes ago, Wnwniner said:

OK Newbie question-I lurk in the NE forums a lot because, well, i love snow and there is A LOT of knowledge here.  I've read a few times about how different metrics/teleconnections sometimes take a while to influence weather, is that not the case with the ocean temps and MJO?  Is there not a response lag between when the indicator moves into the next phase and when the pattern "changes"?  

Yes, generally there is a 2-3 day lag on the teles (which is why we stress looking at transitions themselves as much as the actual values) and ~7D for the MJO. 

These are not absolutes, but guidelines. 

 

[RobB]

Just now, Penn State said:

The pattern does look to reload the second half of January… I’m feeling a Super Bowl weekend storm. You know.. so we can have that Monday off lol.. 

I like that type of thinking 🙂

[telejunkie]

15 minutes ago, Wnwniner said:

OK Newbie question-I lurk in the NE forums a lot because, well, i love snow and there is A LOT of knowledge here.  I've read a few times about how different metrics/teleconnections sometimes take a while to influence weather, is that not the case with the ocean temps and MJO?  Is there not a response lag between when the indicator moves into the next phase and when the pattern "changes"?  

Teleconnection are often rather rapid at influencing weather pattern...for example, the EPO flips from negative to positive around the 20th and by the 23rd, the eastern US is flooded by Pacific air. 

You are probably more thinking about stratospheric connections to the troposphere and how those two interact...?

Edit: Go with UTs response

Edited January 12 by telejunkie

[Penn State]

12 minutes ago, Wnwniner said:

OK Newbie question-I lurk in the NE forums a lot because, well, i love snow and there is A LOT of knowledge here.  I've read a few times about how different metrics/teleconnections sometimes take a while to influence weather, is that not the case with the ocean temps and MJO?  Is there not a response lag between when the indicator moves into the next phase and when the pattern "changes"?  

Yes! It’s not an exact science.. but I usually use a rule of thumb around 10-14 days from the intersection of phases 7 and 8. So.. if that cross happens in early February, impacts should be around Valentine’s Day. 

[Wnwniner]

Thanks @Undertakerson2.0 @telejunkie @Penn State!

[Poco]

O I just dropped some stuff in the January thread I’ll move it over including the BSR 

 

[MaineJay]

1 minute ago, Poco said:

O I just dropped some stuff in the January thread I’ll move it over including the BSR 

 

I know you've seen that retrograding storm near the Aleutian Islands in some of medium - long range modeling.

[Poco]

O crap I hid the post and now I can’t see it 

fudge , do my best to retype it all on here. 
 

WPC tropical hazards tidbit from their disco on the 9th 

“The precipitation outlook for weeks 2 and 3 are based on a historical skill weighted blend of the GEFS, CFS, ECCC, and ECMWF models, MJO precipitation composites (phases 4, 5, and 6), and the influence from El Nino. During week-2 (January 17-23), constructive interference between the MJO and a Kelvin wave is expected to overcome the El Nino base state and above-average precipitation is favored for the Maritime Continent. By week-3 (January 24-30), forecast uncertainty on the precipitation outlook across this region becomes higher due to the model differences on how fast the MJO propagates eastward. By the end of January, a more canonical El Nino precipitation pattern is expected to return to the global tropics. 

Based on multi-model ensemble output, there is a greater than 65 percent chance of below-average temperatures across much of the central and eastern United States during week-2 (January 17 to 23). The upcoming Arctic air outbreak is related to high latitude blocking and a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). Lagged MJO composites, using phase 3, would favor a moderation of temperatures by the final week of January.“

 

AO forecast, mean is hardly even positive at this point. 

blocking charts 17-26st

given the exteme HLB over Alaska I wouldn’t be too surprising if the AO remained in the tank for week 3 

the 20th still has ofm blessing and climatologically speaking you wouldn’t want it to happen any other time.  
 

BSR 20th 

 

and don’t fear we have the MJO coming round the mountain to start February off so even if we can’t make the donuts with this one, we will eventually be seeing a coherent phase 7 MJO which I like to think of as the nor’easter phase.  Dont want to get to ahead of myself here as this is the thread for the 20th and not the January/February obs thread.  If a mod wants to move my hidden post in the Ohio valley January thread to our January obs thread feel free. Cheers! 

Edited January 13 by Poco

[Poco]

10 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I know you've seen that retrograding storm near the Aleutian Islands in some of medium - long range modeling.

Is this what Australia feels like?  
 

Lol in all seriousness not sure how it will translate via the rossby wave train.  I do normally think a retrograde flow in the bsr point correlation location f the east coast is always normally a period one should watch for. 
 

of course this could possibly coincide with the next mjo phase 7 which ya know…. “It’s all connected” or something like that.  Simple but wildly true in this realm 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Poc be watching this one. 

It's a hot tamale or something like that

High over Low, forecast for snow

[Undertakerson2.0]

Yikes!

[Poco]

That energy coming out west exceptional Looking this run.  Reminds me of Stella type of energy with a rising ridge 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Benchmark Boomer run

 

Edited January 13 by Undertakerson2.0

[Phillyfan]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Benchmark Boomer run

Interesting... Fingers crossed, cause it looks to warm up some after next weekend.

[TLChip]

I spy a banana.

[Penn State]

👀