Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 31, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted December 31, 2023 (edited) There’s an opportunity here.. and this might be the most interesting of the bunch. More to come! Happy Tracking! 🤓 Operational Model Inspiration | 18z GFS (12/30) Ensemble Members | Hour 240 GEFS EPS CMCE Spoiler 12z Ensembles | Hour 240 GEFS EPS CMCE 12z Operational | Surface & 500MB (Continental) GFS ECMWF GDPS GraphCast Teleconnections AO (-) NAO (-) PNA (-) Organic Forecasting BSR WPC | Day 7 Forecast Analog | 500MB Trend & Comparison (‘96) Check out this trend on the GFS! You can see in the 500MB a split of the trough. The midwestern cutter (primary) evolves into a coastal (secondary). An analysis of some more notable January storms (‘96 and ‘16) led to a comparison, which ultimately may be a stretch! 18z GFS 500MB Trend 18z GFS Surface Trend 500MB Reanalysis (Blizzard of ‘96) John Homenuk.. a meteorologist from New York completed a re-analysis of the Blizzard of 2016 in comparison to the Blizzard of 1996. You can read about it here. Below is the 500MB pattern leading into the famed storm from ‘96. As compared to today, you can see both similarities and differences, but with some adjustments, a similar pattern may present itself. Of course, that doesn’t mean that it will! 18z GFS 500 MB Analysis Edited January 11 by Penn State 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 31, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 31, 2023 I’m thinking that 00z is a step in the wrong direction for the east on the GFS.. at least from the 18z.. but maybe a step forward from the 12z on both the GFS and Canadian. Obviously.. there’s a ton to be resolved before this, so the expectation is for variance. For parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic, I am curious what this looks like if there’s fresh snowpack from the event on or around the 7th. Looks like a wintry mix to rain type of scenario at the moment.. with a primary low going well to the west, and potentially a secondary towards the coast. Could also just be a FROPA.. which would be blah. 00z GFS 00z GDPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 8 hours ago, Penn State said: I’m thinking that 00z is a step in the wrong direction for the east on the GFS.. at least from the 18z.. but maybe a step forward from the 12z on both the GFS and Canadian. Obviously.. there’s a ton to be resolved before this, so the expectation is for variance. For parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic, I am curious what this looks like if there’s fresh snowpack from the event on or around the 7th. Looks like a wintry mix to rain type of scenario at the moment.. with a primary low going well to the west, and potentially a secondary towards the coast. Could also just be a FROPA.. which would be blah. 00z GFS 00z GDPS This will wash away all my digital snow from the 7th storm. Shucks… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 31, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 31, 2023 Canadian with a step towards a more wintry solution in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 31, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 31, 2023 Euro takes a small step towards a more wintry solution.. Fantasyland.. but I have a residence there 😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 31, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 31, 2023 Pretty widespread 6”+ snowfall.. Imagine this would make a lot of folks happy. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 31, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 31, 2023 Powerful.. Lots of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 50 minutes ago, Penn State said: Euro takes a small step towards a more wintry solution.. Fantasyland.. but I have a residence there 😂 I just happened to take a peek at this one and was like .. what planet am I living on right now. After nearly 2 straight months of endless barf runs ,, these past 24ish hours have flipped so hard I can't mentally deal with it lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 31, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted December 31, 2023 18z GFS is farther north and doesn’t develop the secondary. More wintry than before.. but not as wintry as the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Snow to rain but still nice hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 1 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 1 I think folks are going to like the GFS… 👀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 1 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 1 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 1 (edited) If that were to successfully transfer to the coast and maintain the cold air.. the totals would be insane in parts of VA, WV, MD, PA and points NE. Look at the QPF. Edited January 1 by Penn State 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 getting closer to this afternoons EUro run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 1 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 1 ECMWF takes a step backward at 00z.. still has a wintry component in the east, just not as pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 1 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 1 06z GFS also a step back.. but once again, a wintry component is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 1 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 1 Meh.. sort of a push. Certain areas of the NE do well, not so much for the Mid-Atlantic at the moment. GFS GDPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, Penn State said: Meh.. sort of a push. Certain areas of the NE do well, not so much for the Mid-Atlantic at the moment. GFS GDPS But that front end thump isn't terrible on either, for interior Mid-Atl. yeah, it switches over. but in a world full of near 0 snow so far.. beggars can't be choosers? 😞 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 1 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 1 31 minutes ago, JDClapper said: But that front end thump isn't terrible on either, for interior Mid-Atl. yeah, it switches over. but in a world full of near 0 snow so far.. beggars can't be choosers? 😞 Oh, I’d definitely take it.. if the 7th works out.. that fresh snowpack will hold the cold air in. Wouldn’t surprise me to see quite the icing event in the valleys. But.. need the 7th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 1 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 1 (edited) And the Euro from 12z.. decent interior and SNE. Edited January 1 by Penn State 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 1 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 1 More of the same here at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 YEah, general theme remains the same. Front end interior/NE snow to changeover. Depending on intensity of thump.. 1-3" or 3-6" .. very typical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Surprised at this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 2 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 2 26 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: Surprised at this Oh! I didn’t read the dates.. this is quite interesting. I mean.. front end thump with snow on the ground.. I can see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Big improvements 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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