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June 5th-September 1st, 2023 | Severe Storm Sequence


Iceresistance

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I'll be back home in NE OK for most of this next week. While it's been an intense storm season in the OKC metro areas, this has been one of the least active seasons I can remember for NE OK. Hopefully that can change with this upcoming system next week. 

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Interesting discussion from the SPC for Today

Upper troughing over the eastern states should move into the western
   Atlantic on Day 4/Friday, with upper ridging remaining prominent
   from western Canada into the Rockies and much of the Plains. Some
   guidance indicates that a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded
   within a southern-stream mid/upper-level jet may advance eastward
   from the Southwest and northern Mexico across the southern High
   Plains by Friday evening. Isolated thunderstorms will probably
   develop along a sharpening dryline across the southern High Plains
   in response. Instability and shear appear adequate for some severe
   threat with any convection that can form. However, confidence in
   thunderstorm coverage is not high enough to include a 15% severe
   area at this time. Isolated severe thunderstorms also appear
   possible Friday across parts of north FL along/south of a weak
   front, and across parts of the northern/central Plains as a separate
   cold front advances southward.

   An upper trough/low should approach the West Coast on Day
   5/Saturday, and move slowly eastward across the western CONUS
   through Day 6/Sunday. While upper ridging will likely be maintained
   over the Rockies and High Plains, mid-level flow is forecast to
   gradually strengthen this upcoming weekend across the southern
   Plains. Rich low-level moisture should also return northward over
   the southern/central Plains in this time frame. In general, upper
   ridging will prevail over the warm sector; but, weaknesses in the
   ridging associated with weak mid-level perturbations are evident in
   model guidance across the southern Plains through the weekend. Any
   thunderstorms that can develop along the length of the dryline, or
   perhaps near a front/dryline intersection, should be capable of
   producing severe hail/winds. Due to nebulous large-scale forcing,
   too much uncertainty currently exists in the placement and coverage
   of robust convection to include any severe areas this weekend across
   the southern Plains, but model trends will be closely monitored.

   Differences in the synoptic-scale pattern across the CONUS become
   more substantial in medium-range guidance from Day 7/Monday onward.
   Regardless, upper troughing should advance slowly eastward from the
   western to central CONUS early next week. As this occurs,
   strengthening mid/upper-level flow should overlap the warm sector
   and pose a risk for severe thunderstorms. Exactly where the greatest
   threat will develop remains highly uncertain given current model
   spread. But, an increasing threat for severe thunderstorms is
   evident across parts of the southern/central Plains to the MS Valley
   early next week.

 

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1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Interesting discussion from the SPC for Today

Upper troughing over the eastern states should move into the western
   Atlantic on Day 4/Friday, with upper ridging remaining prominent
   from western Canada into the Rockies and much of the Plains. Some
   guidance indicates that a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded
   within a southern-stream mid/upper-level jet may advance eastward
   from the Southwest and northern Mexico across the southern High
   Plains by Friday evening. Isolated thunderstorms will probably
   develop along a sharpening dryline across the southern High Plains
   in response. Instability and shear appear adequate for some severe
   threat with any convection that can form. However, confidence in
   thunderstorm coverage is not high enough to include a 15% severe
   area at this time. Isolated severe thunderstorms also appear
   possible Friday across parts of north FL along/south of a weak
   front, and across parts of the northern/central Plains as a separate
   cold front advances southward.

   An upper trough/low should approach the West Coast on Day
   5/Saturday, and move slowly eastward across the western CONUS
   through Day 6/Sunday. While upper ridging will likely be maintained
   over the Rockies and High Plains, mid-level flow is forecast to
   gradually strengthen this upcoming weekend across the southern
   Plains. Rich low-level moisture should also return northward over
   the southern/central Plains in this time frame. In general, upper
   ridging will prevail over the warm sector; but, weaknesses in the
   ridging associated with weak mid-level perturbations are evident in
   model guidance across the southern Plains through the weekend. Any
   thunderstorms that can develop along the length of the dryline, or
   perhaps near a front/dryline intersection, should be capable of
   producing severe hail/winds. Due to nebulous large-scale forcing,
   too much uncertainty currently exists in the placement and coverage
   of robust convection to include any severe areas this weekend across
   the southern Plains, but model trends will be closely monitored.

   Differences in the synoptic-scale pattern across the CONUS become
   more substantial in medium-range guidance from Day 7/Monday onward.
   Regardless, upper troughing should advance slowly eastward from the
   western to central CONUS early next week. As this occurs,
   strengthening mid/upper-level flow should overlap the warm sector
   and pose a risk for severe thunderstorms. Exactly where the greatest
   threat will develop remains highly uncertain given current model
   spread. But, an increasing threat for severe thunderstorms is
   evident across parts of the southern/central Plains to the MS Valley
   early next week.

 

Starting to watch this period more closely 

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Appears to be the beginning of a pretty active June.

2 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

GFS and Euro are both showing what could be a very active day on Monday. Seasonably strong deep layer shear... effective shear around 55-75 kts here in the Texas Panhandle.

aJ6Nnn9.png

3hqFeUF.png

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  • Meteorologist

Radar is picking up on some borderline severe winds (55-57 mph) just 200-300 feet above ground. Based on what I'm hearing, not surprised. Will be interested to see what the KAMA ASOS registers.

image.thumb.png.60c78820cb76e1f52de3391481cb2c2a.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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  • Meteorologist

Very impressive updraft south of Canyon. Very weak reflectivity at the surface but 70-75 dBz at 20k feet

aaaaand there's another flash flood warning

kama_20230608_0426_BR.png
 

Loop… including that Canyon cell

 

 

Spoiler

animated.gif

 

 

Spoiler

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-local-Panhandle-14-04_41Z-20230608_counties-map-plot-glm_flash_noBar-48-1n-5-100.gif

 

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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  • Meteorologist

Looking at 1-2” radar estimates over the past hour. Of course, most if not all happened in 30 minutes. Rain and rain rates we don’t need. I was gonna go out and look at the flooding around the area today, but decided to do it tomorrow. Turned out to be a good idea

IMG_7684.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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  • Meteorologist

To give an idea of how low the bar is for flash flooding at this point...

vFlash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1229 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southwestern Hutchinson County in the panhandle of Texas...

* Until 330 AM CDT.

* At 1229 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
  thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 1
  inch of rain has fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.5 to 1.5
  inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Borger, Fritch and Sanford.

Main concern will be the Borger area that picked up 1 inch in 14
minutes, but other areas included have received significant rain
rates as well in an short period of time and may have flash flooding
as a result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 10146 3572 10142 3571 10138 3569 10135
      3566 10133 3564 10134 3563 10138 3563 10140
      3562 10149 3563 10162 3564 10162 3565 10162
      3571 10154

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.5-1.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

 

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On 6/6/2023 at 11:56 AM, Iceresistance said:

@Ingyball You had Quarter Sized Hail yesterday.

I have been away on vacation so I didn't get to see it. My car was parked at the office tho so hopefully no hail damage

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  • Meteorologist

Just spent almost 3 hours driving around the southwest Texas Panhandle looking for high water and I guess just sight seeing. Went south to Canyon, west to Hereford, north to Vega. Worst flooding in general was around Amarillo, but I’m sure I didn’t go to the right parts of Canyon and Hereford. I could tell that most of the road I drove on in Hereford was probably under at least a few inches of water because there was dirt spread out everywhere.

Mcdonald Lake in Amarillo

Spoiler

IMG_7687.thumb.jpeg.b3c9c7a51ba4a3dfa2357e0a4b1231b2.jpeg

IMG_7690.thumb.jpeg.f3dfbf1a219d0801fdd86a36ebcdf0bd.jpeg

IMG_7691.thumb.jpeg.dfb0f7b9bbf360bfb306ec4797d4ae3c.jpeg

No pics taken in Canyon. Driving west from Canyon to Hereford:

Spoiler

 

IMG_7697.thumb.jpeg.f2c998782b1aea28d77ef23d18dabd20.jpeg
IMG_7698.thumb.jpeg.6870a726a0a899bb467abcf64279b93f.jpeg

 

 

No pics taken in Hereford. Driving north to Vega. Don't think there's supposed to be lakes here.

Spoiler

IMG_7704.thumb.jpeg.5626815230ae7aec0e7459edd9744679.jpeg

IMG_7706.thumb.jpeg.4a6d1398a5b014578ec781c234bb9e97.jpeg

IMG_7707.thumb.jpeg.715038dc3b2f6f584fd45ac59f1881c9.jpeg

No pics taken in Vega. Near my apartment in southwest Amarillo

Spoiler

 

IMG_7719.jpeg

 

IMG_7720.jpeg

IMG_7721.jpeg

IMG_7723.jpeg

 

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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  • Meteorologist

I didn't realize how bad the flooding is around me. I guess the overnight MCS a night or two ago really put Lawrence Lake over the top. This is walking distance from where I live and I've seen some roads closed and some low-end standing water but I had no idea it was this bad further up the road. Latest from the news is "hundreds" have been displaced from their homes, though yesterday they said something like 245. Flood insurance isn't too common around here because things like this just don't happen often, so a lot of people are hurting real bad. 

In retrospect, I was hearing intermittent police and/or fire sirens for a couple hours after the storms rolled through. That makes sense now.

 

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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