Iceresistance Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 The models are showing an unusually strong signal for severe storms 7-10 days from now. SPC has marginal risks in scattered, broad areas in the next few days, including the Carolinas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 I'll be back home in NE OK for most of this next week. While it's been an intense storm season in the OKC metro areas, this has been one of the least active seasons I can remember for NE OK. Hopefully that can change with this upcoming system next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted June 6, 2023 Author Share Posted June 6, 2023 Interesting discussion from the SPC for Today Upper troughing over the eastern states should move into the western Atlantic on Day 4/Friday, with upper ridging remaining prominent from western Canada into the Rockies and much of the Plains. Some guidance indicates that a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within a southern-stream mid/upper-level jet may advance eastward from the Southwest and northern Mexico across the southern High Plains by Friday evening. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop along a sharpening dryline across the southern High Plains in response. Instability and shear appear adequate for some severe threat with any convection that can form. However, confidence in thunderstorm coverage is not high enough to include a 15% severe area at this time. Isolated severe thunderstorms also appear possible Friday across parts of north FL along/south of a weak front, and across parts of the northern/central Plains as a separate cold front advances southward. An upper trough/low should approach the West Coast on Day 5/Saturday, and move slowly eastward across the western CONUS through Day 6/Sunday. While upper ridging will likely be maintained over the Rockies and High Plains, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen this upcoming weekend across the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture should also return northward over the southern/central Plains in this time frame. In general, upper ridging will prevail over the warm sector; but, weaknesses in the ridging associated with weak mid-level perturbations are evident in model guidance across the southern Plains through the weekend. Any thunderstorms that can develop along the length of the dryline, or perhaps near a front/dryline intersection, should be capable of producing severe hail/winds. Due to nebulous large-scale forcing, too much uncertainty currently exists in the placement and coverage of robust convection to include any severe areas this weekend across the southern Plains, but model trends will be closely monitored. Differences in the synoptic-scale pattern across the CONUS become more substantial in medium-range guidance from Day 7/Monday onward. Regardless, upper troughing should advance slowly eastward from the western to central CONUS early next week. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper-level flow should overlap the warm sector and pose a risk for severe thunderstorms. Exactly where the greatest threat will develop remains highly uncertain given current model spread. But, an increasing threat for severe thunderstorms is evident across parts of the southern/central Plains to the MS Valley early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: Interesting discussion from the SPC for Today Upper troughing over the eastern states should move into the western Atlantic on Day 4/Friday, with upper ridging remaining prominent from western Canada into the Rockies and much of the Plains. Some guidance indicates that a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within a southern-stream mid/upper-level jet may advance eastward from the Southwest and northern Mexico across the southern High Plains by Friday evening. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop along a sharpening dryline across the southern High Plains in response. Instability and shear appear adequate for some severe threat with any convection that can form. However, confidence in thunderstorm coverage is not high enough to include a 15% severe area at this time. Isolated severe thunderstorms also appear possible Friday across parts of north FL along/south of a weak front, and across parts of the northern/central Plains as a separate cold front advances southward. An upper trough/low should approach the West Coast on Day 5/Saturday, and move slowly eastward across the western CONUS through Day 6/Sunday. While upper ridging will likely be maintained over the Rockies and High Plains, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen this upcoming weekend across the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture should also return northward over the southern/central Plains in this time frame. In general, upper ridging will prevail over the warm sector; but, weaknesses in the ridging associated with weak mid-level perturbations are evident in model guidance across the southern Plains through the weekend. Any thunderstorms that can develop along the length of the dryline, or perhaps near a front/dryline intersection, should be capable of producing severe hail/winds. Due to nebulous large-scale forcing, too much uncertainty currently exists in the placement and coverage of robust convection to include any severe areas this weekend across the southern Plains, but model trends will be closely monitored. Differences in the synoptic-scale pattern across the CONUS become more substantial in medium-range guidance from Day 7/Monday onward. Regardless, upper troughing should advance slowly eastward from the western to central CONUS early next week. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper-level flow should overlap the warm sector and pose a risk for severe thunderstorms. Exactly where the greatest threat will develop remains highly uncertain given current model spread. But, an increasing threat for severe thunderstorms is evident across parts of the southern/central Plains to the MS Valley early next week. Starting to watch this period more closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted June 6, 2023 Author Share Posted June 6, 2023 (edited) 16 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Starting to watch this period more closely Yeah, especially since this has been showing up on the GEFS, I even made sure that this signal was not contaminated. This is for @ElectricStorm Edited June 6, 2023 by Iceresistance More Images 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted June 6, 2023 Author Share Posted June 6, 2023 @Ingyball You had Quarter Sized Hail yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 6, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 6, 2023 (edited) Storms are struggling to develop for once here. A cap in June, imagine that Edited June 6, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 Day 4 slight risk is up for OK/TX. And so it begins... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 7, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 7, 2023 GFS and Euro are both showing what could be a very active day on Monday. Seasonably strong deep layer shear... effective shear around 55-75 kts here in the Texas Panhandle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 Appears to be the beginning of a pretty active June. 2 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: GFS and Euro are both showing what could be a very active day on Monday. Seasonably strong deep layer shear... effective shear around 55-75 kts here in the Texas Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2023 (edited) Gotta be some small hail with this storm that just popped to my north Edited June 8, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 Outflow boundary moving in here with some small cells popping up. Hearing some decent thunder now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2023 (edited) Nothing like some post-sunset intensification Spoiler Edited June 8, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2023 Definitely have some strong winds and I hear some small hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2023 (edited) Radar is picking up on some borderline severe winds (55-57 mph) just 200-300 feet above ground. Based on what I'm hearing, not surprised. Will be interested to see what the KAMA ASOS registers. Edited June 8, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2023 (edited) Very impressive updraft south of Canyon. Very weak reflectivity at the surface but 70-75 dBz at 20k feet aaaaand there's another flash flood warning Loop… including that Canyon cell Spoiler Spoiler Edited June 8, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2023 (edited) Looking at 1-2” radar estimates over the past hour. Of course, most if not all happened in 30 minutes. Rain and rain rates we don’t need. I was gonna go out and look at the flooding around the area today, but decided to do it tomorrow. Turned out to be a good idea Edited June 8, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2023 To give an idea of how low the bar is for flash flooding at this point... vFlash Flood Warning National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1229 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southwestern Hutchinson County in the panhandle of Texas... * Until 330 AM CDT. * At 1229 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 1 inch of rain has fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.5 to 1.5 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Borger, Fritch and Sanford. Main concern will be the Borger area that picked up 1 inch in 14 minutes, but other areas included have received significant rain rates as well in an short period of time and may have flash flooding as a result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely. && LAT...LON 3572 10146 3572 10142 3571 10138 3569 10135 3566 10133 3564 10134 3563 10138 3563 10140 3562 10149 3563 10162 3564 10162 3565 10162 3571 10154 FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.5-1.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted June 8, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2023 On 6/6/2023 at 11:56 AM, Iceresistance said: @Ingyball You had Quarter Sized Hail yesterday. I have been away on vacation so I didn't get to see it. My car was parked at the office tho so hopefully no hail damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 Rare Day 3 outlook update is out. Looks like morning convection will ruin the afternoon severe event across C/W OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2023 (edited) Just spent almost 3 hours driving around the southwest Texas Panhandle looking for high water and I guess just sight seeing. Went south to Canyon, west to Hereford, north to Vega. Worst flooding in general was around Amarillo, but I’m sure I didn’t go to the right parts of Canyon and Hereford. I could tell that most of the road I drove on in Hereford was probably under at least a few inches of water because there was dirt spread out everywhere. Mcdonald Lake in Amarillo Spoiler No pics taken in Canyon. Driving west from Canyon to Hereford: Spoiler No pics taken in Hereford. Driving north to Vega. Don't think there's supposed to be lakes here. Spoiler No pics taken in Vega. Near my apartment in southwest Amarillo Spoiler Edited June 8, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 Things are going to be getting very active in the next week or two.. stay weather aware everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted June 9, 2023 Moderators Share Posted June 9, 2023 13 hours ago, Neoncyclone said: Things are going to be getting very active in the next week or two.. stay weather aware everyone. lets hope! its been beyond boring for the last month here lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 9, 2023 (edited) I didn't realize how bad the flooding is around me. I guess the overnight MCS a night or two ago really put Lawrence Lake over the top. This is walking distance from where I live and I've seen some roads closed and some low-end standing water but I had no idea it was this bad further up the road. Latest from the news is "hundreds" have been displaced from their homes, though yesterday they said something like 245. Flood insurance isn't too common around here because things like this just don't happen often, so a lot of people are hurting real bad. In retrospect, I was hearing intermittent police and/or fire sirens for a couple hours after the storms rolled through. That makes sense now. Edited June 9, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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