May 17-June 3, 2023 | Severe Weather

[ElectricStorm]

Went ahead and started a new thread for the next system coming through. Marginal risk tomorrow out west, looking at the models this doesn't look like anything major, but I'd say an upgrade to slight risk is certainly possible. Day 3 marginal up for Thursday over most of OK, could see scattered severe storms and maybe an MCS coming through overnight. We'll see what the CAMs look like but I think we'll see an upgrade to slight risk at some point. 

Friday should be interesting with a MCS moving along the cold front and looks more widespread than the previous days. 

 

Edited June 3, 2023 by ElectricStorm

[Ingyball]

18z NAM would be absolutely magical for the drought across southern Kansas. Would make things more interesting as we head into June as well. 

 

[Ingyball]

Bulk of the models have shifted south with the QPF unfortunately, would be a shame if we barely missed again. That said, the Euro, UKMET, FV3(kind of) and the RRFS aren't as far south and would still have beneficial rainfall for Wichita and points southward. The RRFS has done a great job lately so hopefully it continues to perform.

 

Edit: Should have mentioned the 15z RAP as well. 

Edited May 17, 2023 by Ingyball

[ClicheVortex2014]

Finally starting to see thunderstorm/severe chances stack up around here like I expected for this time of year. 
 
Gotta be some impressive rainfall totals in the northwest here. But what I’ve been saying is the east has a better shot at severe weather today. Better winds aloft and better moisture. Had a plausible reason to suspect storms would develop because they’re in the right entrance region of a weakish jet streak. Shear is still too weak in the east for supercells but should be enough for at least some storm organization… as opposed to what we’re seeing in the western OK Panhandle/NW Texas Panhandle

Edited May 17, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Chinook]

3 hours ago, Ingyball said:

Bulk of the models have shifted south with the QPF unfortunately, would be a shame if we barely missed again. That said, the Euro, UKMET, FV3(kind of) and the RRFS aren't as far south and would still have beneficial rainfall for Wichita and points southward. The RRFS has done a great job lately so hopefully it continues to perform.

 

Edit: Should have mentioned the 15z RAP as well. 

I hate to say this, but when you're in a drought, then the 4" of rain predicted by the NAM probably won't happen. The dry pattern loves to repeat.

[ClicheVortex2014]

1.75" hail report from just south of Miami (TX)

[Ingyball]

2 hours ago, Chinook said:

I hate to say this, but when you're in a drought, then the 4" of rain predicted by the NAM probably won't happen. The dry pattern loves to repeat.

Yup, but it's also our wet season so we can still cash in like we did last week. 3 storms gave us about 2.5" of rain all together we may have gotten like a tenth outside of that, but this time of year one storm can make it a good event. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Not a bad convective/rain event for a marginal. Tomorrow has some greater severe potential imo.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Borger recorded 0.13" of rain in 5 mins which is a rate of nearly 2"/h. 

Edited May 18, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Interesting possible scenario tomorrow. Easterly surface winds with 60 dew points with initial convection in the late afternoon.

Edited May 18, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Sounds like SPC is seeing the potential in the Plains but won't act on it yet.

  Greatest severe-weather potential will likely reside over the High
   Plains, evolving Day 5 to 6, and then lingering there with a noted
   diurnal (afternoon/evening) peak.  This will occur as modest
   moisture leaks northward across the High Plains on southerly flow on
   the back side of the broad area of surface high pressure.  With weak
   westerly/southwesterly flow aloft across the Rockies, a lee trough
   will likely be maintained.  As such, subtle disturbances in the flow
   aloft will likely focus favored areas along the lee trough for
   afternoon convective development, that would then tend to progress
   southeastward given the low-level southeasterly flow regime.  With
   elevated mixed-layer air/steep lapse rates in place, modest
   instability, and a wind profile veering from southeasterly to
   southwesterly with height and a nocturnal low-level jet evolving
   each evening, it would appear that clusters of strong/severe storms
   will be possible each afternoon which would then spread
   southeastward toward lower elevations.  

   With that said, picking out areas/days where risk may be greater
   than the background low-level threat is difficult, given the subtle
   forcing, and thus no risk areas will be included at this time.

GFS has been inconsistently hinting at something like this. Won't be surprised if chasers start flocking to the Texas Panhandle/western Kansas area soon if we see some more consistency.

[ClicheVortex2014]

I need to get out more. These were right in my back yard..

 

Edited May 18, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

This should make my first mid of the week more interesting

[ClicheVortex2014]

Got 5 hours til my shift starts. Probably gonna drive north shortly and see what I can see. Gonna play it super safe though because I still don’t really know the area well enough 

Edited May 18, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

Tornado warning just north of Amarillo with rotating wall cloud spotted.

Quote

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
623 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

TXC375-190015-
/O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-230519T0015Z/
Potter TX-
623 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
POTTER COUNTY...

At 622 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 9 miles southeast of Valley De Oro, or 14 miles northwest
of Amarillo, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a rotating wall cloud.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Amarillo and Valley De Oro.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Right now

[snowlover2]

Quote

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
701 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Carson County in the Panhandle of Texas...
  Southeastern Potter County in the Panhandle of Texas...

* Until 800 PM CDT.

* At 700 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 11 miles north of Amarillo, moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a rotating wall cloud.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Amarillo and Pantex.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Storm is moving more north… looks like it’s weakening but also the LLJ is kicking in. Still out here though.

Pic as of right now looking northwest 

My favorite so far but this was earlier.

Edited May 19, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Watching a new cell to my west. Doesn’t look like it’ll be much and everything is trending linear. I’m calling it quits… too much lightning to actually be able to enjoy it outside anyway.

[Neoncyclone]

8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Watching a new cell to my west. Doesn’t look like it’ll be much and everything is trending linear. I’m calling it quits… too much lightning to actually be able to enjoy it outside anyway.

No tornado, but that is some beautiful structure.

 

[Central Illinois]

definitely could use a inch or two of rain right now 

[ClicheVortex2014]

23 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

No tornado, but that is some beautiful structure.

 

Plan was to stay 15+ miles away from the supercell so this was definitely more of a structure chase. Don’t know the area enough to pull sneaky maneuvers. 
 

Back at my apartment… work in an hour and a half. Looks like the cell I gave up on looks more supercellular now. Oh well. Under a severe warning now.

Edited May 19, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

24 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Plan was to stay 15+ miles away from the supercell so this was definitely more of a structure chase. Don’t know the area enough to pull sneaky maneuvers. 
 

Back at my apartment… work in an hour and a half. Looks like the cell I gave up on looks more supercellular now. Oh well. Under a severe warning now.

Under a flash flood warning now.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Just got called in to work. Flash flood warning now… dang. Not surprised based on radar I guess.

Edited May 19, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

Tornado warning near Panhandle TX.