ElectricStorm Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 (edited) Went ahead and started a new thread for the next system coming through. Marginal risk tomorrow out west, looking at the models this doesn't look like anything major, but I'd say an upgrade to slight risk is certainly possible. Day 3 marginal up for Thursday over most of OK, could see scattered severe storms and maybe an MCS coming through overnight. We'll see what the CAMs look like but I think we'll see an upgrade to slight risk at some point. Friday should be interesting with a MCS moving along the cold front and looks more widespread than the previous days. Edited June 3, 2023 by ElectricStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 16, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 16, 2023 18z NAM would be absolutely magical for the drought across southern Kansas. Would make things more interesting as we head into June as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 17, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 17, 2023 (edited) Bulk of the models have shifted south with the QPF unfortunately, would be a shame if we barely missed again. That said, the Euro, UKMET, FV3(kind of) and the RRFS aren't as far south and would still have beneficial rainfall for Wichita and points southward. The RRFS has done a great job lately so hopefully it continues to perform. Edit: Should have mentioned the 15z RAP as well. Edited May 17, 2023 by Ingyball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 17, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 17, 2023 (edited) Finally starting to see thunderstorm/severe chances stack up around here like I expected for this time of year. Gotta be some impressive rainfall totals in the northwest here. But what I’ve been saying is the east has a better shot at severe weather today. Better winds aloft and better moisture. Had a plausible reason to suspect storms would develop because they’re in the right entrance region of a weakish jet streak. Shear is still too weak in the east for supercells but should be enough for at least some storm organization… as opposed to what we’re seeing in the western OK Panhandle/NW Texas Panhandle Edited May 17, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 3 hours ago, Ingyball said: Bulk of the models have shifted south with the QPF unfortunately, would be a shame if we barely missed again. That said, the Euro, UKMET, FV3(kind of) and the RRFS aren't as far south and would still have beneficial rainfall for Wichita and points southward. The RRFS has done a great job lately so hopefully it continues to perform. Edit: Should have mentioned the 15z RAP as well. I hate to say this, but when you're in a drought, then the 4" of rain predicted by the NAM probably won't happen. The dry pattern loves to repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2023 1.75" hail report from just south of Miami (TX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 18, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2023 2 hours ago, Chinook said: I hate to say this, but when you're in a drought, then the 4" of rain predicted by the NAM probably won't happen. The dry pattern loves to repeat. Yup, but it's also our wet season so we can still cash in like we did last week. 3 storms gave us about 2.5" of rain all together we may have gotten like a tenth outside of that, but this time of year one storm can make it a good event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2023 Not a bad convective/rain event for a marginal. Tomorrow has some greater severe potential imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2023 (edited) Borger recorded 0.13" of rain in 5 mins which is a rate of nearly 2"/h. Edited May 18, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2023 (edited) Interesting possible scenario tomorrow. Easterly surface winds with 60 dew points with initial convection in the late afternoon. Edited May 18, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2023 Sounds like SPC is seeing the potential in the Plains but won't act on it yet. Greatest severe-weather potential will likely reside over the High Plains, evolving Day 5 to 6, and then lingering there with a noted diurnal (afternoon/evening) peak. This will occur as modest moisture leaks northward across the High Plains on southerly flow on the back side of the broad area of surface high pressure. With weak westerly/southwesterly flow aloft across the Rockies, a lee trough will likely be maintained. As such, subtle disturbances in the flow aloft will likely focus favored areas along the lee trough for afternoon convective development, that would then tend to progress southeastward given the low-level southeasterly flow regime. With elevated mixed-layer air/steep lapse rates in place, modest instability, and a wind profile veering from southeasterly to southwesterly with height and a nocturnal low-level jet evolving each evening, it would appear that clusters of strong/severe storms will be possible each afternoon which would then spread southeastward toward lower elevations. With that said, picking out areas/days where risk may be greater than the background low-level threat is difficult, given the subtle forcing, and thus no risk areas will be included at this time. GFS has been inconsistently hinting at something like this. Won't be surprised if chasers start flocking to the Texas Panhandle/western Kansas area soon if we see some more consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2023 (edited) I need to get out more. These were right in my back yard.. Edited May 18, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2023 This should make my first mid of the week more interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2023 (edited) Got 5 hours til my shift starts. Probably gonna drive north shortly and see what I can see. Gonna play it super safe though because I still don’t really know the area well enough Edited May 18, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 Tornado warning just north of Amarillo with rotating wall cloud spotted. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Amarillo TX 623 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 TXC375-190015- /O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-230519T0015Z/ Potter TX- 623 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL POTTER COUNTY... At 622 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 9 miles southeast of Valley De Oro, or 14 miles northwest of Amarillo, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a rotating wall cloud. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Amarillo and Valley De Oro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 18, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 18, 2023 Right now 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Amarillo TX 701 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Carson County in the Panhandle of Texas... Southeastern Potter County in the Panhandle of Texas... * Until 800 PM CDT. * At 700 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 11 miles north of Amarillo, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a rotating wall cloud. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Amarillo and Pantex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2023 (edited) Storm is moving more north… looks like it’s weakening but also the LLJ is kicking in. Still out here though. Pic as of right now looking northwest My favorite so far but this was earlier. Edited May 19, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2023 Watching a new cell to my west. Doesn’t look like it’ll be much and everything is trending linear. I’m calling it quits… too much lightning to actually be able to enjoy it outside anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Watching a new cell to my west. Doesn’t look like it’ll be much and everything is trending linear. I’m calling it quits… too much lightning to actually be able to enjoy it outside anyway. No tornado, but that is some beautiful structure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted May 19, 2023 Moderators Share Posted May 19, 2023 definitely could use a inch or two of rain right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2023 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: No tornado, but that is some beautiful structure. Plan was to stay 15+ miles away from the supercell so this was definitely more of a structure chase. Don’t know the area enough to pull sneaky maneuvers. Back at my apartment… work in an hour and a half. Looks like the cell I gave up on looks more supercellular now. Oh well. Under a severe warning now. Edited May 19, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 24 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Plan was to stay 15+ miles away from the supercell so this was definitely more of a structure chase. Don’t know the area enough to pull sneaky maneuvers. Back at my apartment… work in an hour and a half. Looks like the cell I gave up on looks more supercellular now. Oh well. Under a severe warning now. Under a flash flood warning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19, 2023 (edited) Just got called in to work. Flash flood warning now… dang. Not surprised based on radar I guess. Edited May 19, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19, 2023 Share Posted May 19, 2023 Tornado warning near Panhandle TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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