Admin MaineJay Posted March 19, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 19, 2023 Guess we'll go through the motions. Have been distracted by some other stuff lately, but seems like the models agree on a system in this time period. As of now, northern NY and northern NE have the potential to see some wintry precip. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 20, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 20, 2023 GEFS trend. Some interesting solutions in there. EPS Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 20, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 20, 2023 Maine maple Sunday is this weekend, hopefully, could make for a pretty day, but also a PITA. I don't think anyone wants to clear anymore snow on gravel driveways. I know I don't, I already got grab some more shear pins. WPC Quote The past 12 hours of model runs are finally attempting to converge regarding the details of the upper shortwave tracking out of the West and through the Plains, along with the associated low pressure evolution. The prior wide array of guidance is generally gravitating toward recent ECMWF mean runs that have been depicting the surface system reaching the vicinity of the Ohio Valley by 12Z Saturday and near the New England coast or Canadian Maritimes 24 hours later, corresponding to some sharpening and possible closing of shortwave energy. Operational ECMWF runs have been a bit on the northwestern side of the spread at the surface. Having the current/recent solutions finally look more similar is definitely progress, though exact track is still an issue and quite a bit of spread still exists for how strong the system will be by the time it affects New England. From the 12Z/18Z cycles that were used for the updated forecast, the main consideration was to lean away from the more suppressed 12Z UKMET by the end of its run early Saturday. Despite some decent melting, still a solid 12" around my place. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted March 20, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 20, 2023 5 hours ago, MaineJay said: GEFS trend. Some interesting solutions in there. EPS Ukie That would be perfect for most of the northeast if this was late Feb. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 (edited) Whites holding the snowpack this year. I remember last year was rough, we canned a trip in March because it was thin. pics from last year, from FB. Lion head winter route/summit sign… I’ve seen that spot many times and never so bare in winter. Doing much better this year ☃️ Spoiler Edited March 20, 2023 by TLChip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 20, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 20, 2023 Pretty typical trend for this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 again winter is over its a spring storm not saying it cant snow but 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 20, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Brodozer1 said: again winter is over its a spring storm not saying it cant snow but It has winter-type precipitation, hence the title. Arbitrary calendar dates don't mean a heck of a lot to me in regards to actual weather. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 20, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 20, 2023 EPS GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 20, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 20, 2023 EFI even gives northern PA a roughly 1 in 10 chance at something significant. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley8778 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 13 hours ago, MaineJay said: EFI even gives northern PA a roughly 1 in 10 chance at something significant. Someday (hopefully) you'll post one of these that shows something for southern PA... One can dream. 😃 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Harley8778 said: Someday (hopefully) you'll post one of these that shows something for southern PA... One can dream. 😃 Next year hopefully 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 21, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 21, 2023 (edited) 12z Euro OP seems to be in pretty good agreement with its Ensembles. Could be a moderate front-end thump before going to rain...best chance to stay frozen is off to my northeast. I've still got my eye on the 28-29th timeframe. Definitely seems my best chance to put skis back on my feet...if snowpack can hold out. Edited March 21, 2023 by telejunkie 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 chilly mornings warm days nice and sunny love it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinmama08 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 16 hours ago, telejunkie said: 12z Euro OP seems to be in pretty good agreement with its Ensembles. Could be a moderate front-end thump before going to rain...best chance to stay frozen is off to my northeast. I've still got my eye on the 28-29th timeframe. Definitely seems my best chance to put skis back on my feet...if snowpack can hold out. My kids did closing day at Hidden Valley, PA on Sunday. It was their favorite day of the whole winter! The place was empty- they probably did 80 runs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 24, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 24, 2023 Interesting development on this one. Again based on elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 24, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 24, 2023 NAM is north like 0z Euro 6z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 24, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 24, 2023 Kinda surprised no thread yet for the 28-29th. I'll open tomorrow if I have find the time. This one feels like 90% of the storms this winter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted March 24, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 24, 2023 A winter storm watch issued for tomorrow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 24, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 24, 2023 Advisories in the towns to my north. Hoping I don't have to try and snow blow this. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 25, 2023 Despite temps being in the mid to upper 30's we did have a morning of sleet snow and rain. Mostly sleet, which did cover the surfaces. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 25, 2023 (edited) 20 hours ago, telejunkie said: Kinda surprised no thread yet for the 28-29th. Finally dug in and see why....looks like it's pretty much a non-event as the shortwave gets torn in two. Oh well.... Have some lepton-sized flakes flying here Edited March 25, 2023 by telejunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 25, 2023 It's kinda windy out there. Told everyone last night it would be nasty though. And it's gotta be one of the worst weather days so far this year. 39, gusty, mostly rain. 925s just aren't warming up that much as opposed to the 700 layer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 25, 2023 36.5° DP 24.6° It got below freezing last night, so the ground isn't particularly warm, still a foot of snow in most of my yard, but sunny areas are thin, or open in some cases. Septic tank cleared a square. Sun should be low enough so that most that falls will benefit from the time of day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 25, 2023 Temps right at 32F...coming down at a good clip. Looks like a band of sleet working its way in. This is a quick hitter...back end us already about to clear Albany 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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