Social Media Crew Penn State Posted March 14, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted March 14, 2023 (edited) As most of you know.. I rather enjoy a storm potential with some historical context. For our more seasoned folks from Pennsylvania, Maryland, and New Jersey on this forum, they may remember March of 1958. According to Arcfield Weather, A strong winter storm intensified off the Mid-Atlantic coast and slowly advanced northward; resulting in a long-duration, high impact event. As a matter of fact, parts of eastern Pennsylvania received record snowfall totals. Lancaster recorded 34”.. and Morgantown recorded a staggering 50” of snow. An article from the Washington Post indicated that temperatures during the event were slightly above freezing.. which makes such high snowfall totals even more impressive; yet reasonable, considering that between 3-5” of liquid precipitation was recorded for the event in high impact areas. A YouTube video was created that highlights images, video, and some commentary from this historic event. So, what does this impactful winter storm from Match of 1958 have to do with this upcoming March 21st-23rd? It just so happens that it’s the #3 analog for this timeframe according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Now.. This analog is far from an endorsement of this speculative winter storm threat. History is sure to repeat itself someday, but there’s no evidence to suggest an event as impactful as that fateful storm in March of 1958. The justification for this winter storm is evident on the ensemble forecasts of the GEFS, EPS, and CMCE; the most aggressive of which is the EPS at the present time. In terms of the operational models, each has a storm; however, the ECMWF looks the most intense and is furthest west with the storm track. The GFS is furthest east, and the GDPS is the weakest. If you look at the ECMWF 500mb (In the spoiler) it sure looks close to a triple phase..🧐😳 In terms of teleconnections, the MJO is screaming potential; however with the exception of a favorable NAO, the AO and PNA look unfavorable during this timeframe. So.. the credit for this thread goes to.. @JDClapper who proclaimed that I scare the storms away 😱🫣😂. I mean.. it’s hard to argue against that notion lol, but I refuse to give up! Happy Tracking! 🤓 12z Ensemble Comparison | Hour 192 12z ECMWF | Hours 156-228 #3 Analog | March 18-21, 1958 Spoiler 12z Operational Model Guidance | Hours 156-228 GFS ECMWF GDPS 12z 500 MB Guidance | Hours 156-228 GFS ECMWF GDPS 12z Ensemble Guidance | Hours 156-228 GEFS EPS CMCE Teleconnections MJO AO NAO PNA Analog | March 18-21, 1958 Edited March 15, 2023 by Penn State 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 14, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 14, 2023 Im just waiting for the inevitable NW shift lol jk. Well all I know is it usually storms around my bday whether it be rain or snow could be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 (edited) Lol gmao last night had a crush job on the 23rd Edited March 14, 2023 by Poco 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Nooooo! Why PennState, whyyyyyy? Lol How sad that things looks so loaded with potential every week, at this time of the year. But hey, lets gooooo! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted March 14, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted March 14, 2023 18 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Nooooo! Why PennState, whyyyyyy? Lol How sad that things looks so loaded with potential every week, at this time of the year. But hey, lets gooooo! Oh.. It was on after you posted that. I was on the fence, and then I was like.. I'm doing it! 🤣 There is a lot of potential rolling around, and my more successful threads are usually ones that have a historical tie-in. This one does, which I'll mention when I have time for the write-up, but it's a March 1958 storm.. it's the one that dumped 50" on Morgantown, PA. The operational look has a similar look to the old maps too. It's pretty cool, and would love to see history repeat. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 14, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 14, 2023 Oh well looks like rain in CT. Why even talk about it. 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 14, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: Oh well looks like rain in CT. Why even talk about it. 😆 Yep exactly my thoughts. Luckily they are getting some snow now lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 12z eps mslp members w/ mslp spread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 14 minutes ago, Poco said: 12z eps mslp members w/ mslp spread There are some delicious members in there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 One more for good old times sake 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: There are some delicious members in there. Then we can head into our cold spring. I’m in. Let’s get it over with! 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 14, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 14, 2023 EFI just getting into range GEFS 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 15, 2023 Crap. It’s 11:20pm and the gfs hasn’t even started yet. Guess I’ll go to bed. The only good thing about standard time imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 15, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 15, 2023 ^^ This lol throwing me off at work too. Anyway still far out but im not liking the backing up of the southern energy. What has been steady though is the trough exiting the mountains that is a bit worrisome. Maybe steps toward a Euro like outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Not saying no, but please, no. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 12 hours ago, MaineJay said: EFI just getting into range GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 6z GFS.. and 48 hr trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 my temps are forecasted to be in the 50 for the next 10 days. not buying into another snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 15, 2023 EPS is still giving some in the area a chance. Ukie looks like EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 There’s sone changes going on being this is so far out. last nights Gmao loads up for what I can only explain as a season finale on the 25th it basically skips the 21-23 period and holds back to put itself in harmony with the next nothern surge. I still don’t know the verification on this model but from watching it I must say it has been leading the way operationally quite often. So I wouldn’t be Surprised if we shift this back a couple days as Tylor mentioned the trend has been to hold back the southern stream, gmao just seems to be ahead of the trend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 15, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Poco said: There’s sone changes going on being this is so far out. last nights Gmao loads up for what I can only explain as a season finale on the 25th it basically skips the 21-23 period and holds back to put itself in harmony with the next nothern surge. I still don’t know the verification on this model but from watching it I must say it has been leading the way operationally quite often. So I wouldn’t be Surprised if we shift this back a couple days as Tylor mentioned the trend has been to hold back the southern stream, gmao just seems to be ahead of the trend Yea im starting to think that is the more likely timeframe for something. Euro was even pointing that out, just wayyy too much confluence going on and flat ridging across the western Atlantic doesn't help amplify the shortwave for this timeframe, by 12z tomorrow we start the less than 120 hours routine before storm formation. Could this change sure can but would like to see that resolved in the next 2-3 days if we were to get an early system, could pave the way for a southern Mid Atlantic storm? wouldn't that be something if VA and NC end up with more snow lol. The 24th-26th opens up the possibility with much more ridging potential in eastern Canada only thing would be is lack of cold but again super far away. Maybe we can come to a nice middle ground this may be a little bit easier for models to read if something does take hold with the lack of northerly energy getting intertwined. Will watch but I have been ready to call this winter already lol less than 1 inch is quite the year to say the least. Edited March 15, 2023 by so_whats_happening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 15, 2023 Why not go back to the playbook since it worked so many times recently. How about a would be cutter headed to the lakes that gets blocked and reforms off the coast. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Why not go back to the playbook since it worked so many times recently. How about a would be cutter headed to the lakes that gets blocked and reforms off the coast. yup Edited March 15, 2023 by Poco 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 16, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 16, 2023 5 hours ago, StretchCT said: Why not go back to the playbook since it worked so many times recently. How about a would be cutter headed to the lakes that gets blocked and reforms off the coast. Would surely fit the them this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 16, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 16, 2023 5 hours ago, Poco said: iyup I'm not opening a new thread for this. But even the EPS has a low at day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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