February 27-28, 2023 | NE/Mid-Atl Winter Storm

[MaineJay]

Pattern is active, with waves moving through every 24-48 hours it appears.   Ukie is slowest and least phased, GFS fastest and most phased.

 There's also an appetizer a day previous to this that dives SE through the north east.

This system grad into the roughly 50/50 type low near Newfoundland.  This should keep the storm from gaining much latitude.

The problem for folks south of say, 42°N, is that the storm starts at a relatively high latitude, with a fair amount of warmth already plowed up ahead of it.  And in fact, some solutions are quite warm for most of us. 

 Work so many waves moving through, there will be lots of subtle changes.  Just have to see how things evolve.

[MaineJay]

You don't often see storms strengthen as they slide SE, generally for our region. Some type of Miller B redevelopment I guess.

ECMWF

 

[JDClapper]

12z EPS .. seeing a few clusters.  The obvious "no white" cluster.. then a "nuisance" cluster and also a "something to give a crap about" cluster.  EPS has had a bit of a bump for this one in Central PA for a few runs now.  Maybe it's actually gaining some traction down this way.  We'll see in 12 hours lol

[MaineJay]

GEFS.  I think this trend a little cooler.

[Rush]

I don't know about everyone else but I am ready for one final heartbreak this season.  

[MaineJay]

17 minutes ago, Rush said:

I don't know about everyone else but I am ready for one final heartbreak this season.  

Maybe more.

 

[MaineJay]

Ukie indicating a strong 50/50 in this time frame.

 

[MaineJay]

You want to see values above 0.8 for a significant event, but this is still 5-6 days out   it does suggest some show starved areas are in play, though likely low probabilities.

 

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

Tuesday - Wednesday: Shortwave trough over the Four Corners region
on Sunday will eject ENE in the progressive flow aloft with robust
surface low heading into the Great Lakes region on Monday night. As
the mid level flow flattens and surface low pressure reaches
anchoring high downstream of New England...there is good agreement
across the GEFS/CMC-EPS/ECMWF-EPS of triple-point redevelopment
south of New England.  Given this solid agreement on a precipitation
event Monday night - Tuesday will continue to boost PoPs esp over
NH.  Biggest questions center around how much warm air can work in
aloft and how far to the east heavy precipitation will fall as the
low redevelops to our south and remains south of the Gulf of
Maine...with some guidance members showing a sharp drop off to the
east.  High pressure returns to end the forecast Wednesday with
seasonable temperatures.

&&

 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

This is no doubt looking like the best shot this year for my area in the HV and SE NY and into SNE. First time it's looked this good on models and agreement In the 5 day range now. Euro and gfs basically the same right now.

Euro

[TheComet]

There's decent agreement among various members of the ensembles this far out. Of course things will/might change, but:

Edited February 23, 2023 by TheComet

[telejunkie]

1 hour ago, TheComet said:

There's decent agreement among various members of the ensembles this far out. Of course things will/might change, but:

Looks like @Mainiac is finally sharing some of his winter with us.

Feeling that just like with the current system, the dry NW flow will probably have a big impact on qpf compared to what is modeled.

[telejunkie]

12z GFS total snow out through March 1....👁️🍬

[StretchCT]

I think it was December the last time a storm still looked solid at 5 days.  Even the NBM has snow for NYC north. Euro, GFS, Ukie, NBM keeping the column cool.  CMC warming it a bit. 

[Sentinel]

[StretchCT]

Thought there'd be more buzzzz but it seems like it's only really affecting New England and Upstate NY. The SW extent of it is still not far enough to draw everyone in.  But I'll take 4" on the low side to 12" on the high side anyday.

[TheComet]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Thought there'd be more buzzzz but it seems like it's only really affecting New England and Upstate NY. The SW extent of it is still not far enough to draw everyone in.  But I'll take 4" on the low side to 12" on the high side anyday.

NEPA/Poconos seems to be on the fringe. We might be able to squeak out an inch at least, more if the cold can hold its ground. This is soooo typical for this area during La Niña years: front end thump with an ice topping.

[JDClapper]

2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Thought there'd be more buzzzz but it seems like it's only really affecting New England and Upstate NY. The SW extent of it is still not far enough to draw everyone in.  But I'll take 4" on the low side to 12" on the high side anyday.

It's intriguing how consistent Boston-ish area is being bullseye'd the past couple days.  I'd be sad if I was them, b/c we all know how it USUALLY works out beging 4-6 days out.  Now... where will it actually bullseye .. farther south, or father north?

[JDClapper]

[Penn State]

2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

I'll take 4" on the low side to 12" on the high side anyday.

🤣 That’s what she said.. lol.. Couldn’t resist. Also.. share the wealth you people. Us Mid-Atlantic folk would like some of the action. 

[PA road DAWG]

1 hour ago, TheComet said:

NEPA/Poconos seems to be on the fringe. We might be able to squeak out an inch at least, more if the cold can hold its ground. This is soooo typical for this area during La Niña years: front end thump with an ice topping.

Man, idk what is is, but i find it so hard for me to get excited for these type of systems.  Front end snow thump to mix and rain.  

[TheComet]

8 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Man, idk what is is, but i find it so hard for me to get excited for these type of systems.  Front end snow thump to mix and rain.  

Meh, 18Z GFS looks wack. Not much precip at all. But I'll take it instead of slop/ice/rain. New England and upstate NY have your snow.

Edited February 24, 2023 by TheComet

[MaineJay]

EFI these values between 0.7-0 8are borderline for a significant event.

[MaineJay]

Two lows competing, though eventually, the coastal will win out, but that timing is still up in the air.

ECMWF has trended a little weaker with the inland low, ceding some strength to the coastal.

GEFS don't have a lot of variability, unless you are on the fringe.

The main shortwave isn't particularly deep, and the SE ridge is forcing it up and over, but there is a little sharpness and some negative tilt going on. There is some interaction with the northern branch, not really phasing at our longitude, but some type of inverted like troffing could extend NW of the coastal as the energy progresses through.

 

[JDClapper]

Best EPS run yet for interior Central PA. 50-60% chance of measursble white (~1"+)