Admin MaineJay Posted February 22, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 22, 2023 Pattern is active, with waves moving through every 24-48 hours it appears. Ukie is slowest and least phased, GFS fastest and most phased. There's also an appetizer a day previous to this that dives SE through the north east. This system grad into the roughly 50/50 type low near Newfoundland. This should keep the storm from gaining much latitude. The problem for folks south of say, 42°N, is that the storm starts at a relatively high latitude, with a fair amount of warmth already plowed up ahead of it. And in fact, some solutions are quite warm for most of us. Work so many waves moving through, there will be lots of subtle changes. Just have to see how things evolve. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 22, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2023 You don't often see storms strengthen as they slide SE, generally for our region. Some type of Miller B redevelopment I guess. ECMWF 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 12z EPS .. seeing a few clusters. The obvious "no white" cluster.. then a "nuisance" cluster and also a "something to give a crap about" cluster. EPS has had a bit of a bump for this one in Central PA for a few runs now. Maybe it's actually gaining some traction down this way. We'll see in 12 hours lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 22, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2023 GEFS. I think this trend a little cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 I don't know about everyone else but I am ready for one final heartbreak this season. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 22, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2023 17 minutes ago, Rush said: I don't know about everyone else but I am ready for one final heartbreak this season. Maybe more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 22, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2023 Ukie indicating a strong 50/50 in this time frame. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 22, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2023 You want to see values above 0.8 for a significant event, but this is still 5-6 days out it does suggest some show starved areas are in play, though likely low probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 22, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2023 GYX Quote Tuesday - Wednesday: Shortwave trough over the Four Corners region on Sunday will eject ENE in the progressive flow aloft with robust surface low heading into the Great Lakes region on Monday night. As the mid level flow flattens and surface low pressure reaches anchoring high downstream of New England...there is good agreement across the GEFS/CMC-EPS/ECMWF-EPS of triple-point redevelopment south of New England. Given this solid agreement on a precipitation event Monday night - Tuesday will continue to boost PoPs esp over NH. Biggest questions center around how much warm air can work in aloft and how far to the east heavy precipitation will fall as the low redevelops to our south and remains south of the Gulf of Maine...with some guidance members showing a sharp drop off to the east. High pressure returns to end the forecast Wednesday with seasonable temperatures. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 This is no doubt looking like the best shot this year for my area in the HV and SE NY and into SNE. First time it's looked this good on models and agreement In the 5 day range now. Euro and gfs basically the same right now. Euro 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) There's decent agreement among various members of the ensembles this far out. Of course things will/might change, but: Edited February 23, 2023 by TheComet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 23, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, TheComet said: There's decent agreement among various members of the ensembles this far out. Of course things will/might change, but: Looks like @Mainiac is finally sharing some of his winter with us. Feeling that just like with the current system, the dry NW flow will probably have a big impact on qpf compared to what is modeled. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 23, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 23, 2023 12z GFS total snow out through March 1....👁️🍬 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 23, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 23, 2023 I think it was December the last time a storm still looked solid at 5 days. Even the NBM has snow for NYC north. Euro, GFS, Ukie, NBM keeping the column cool. CMC warming it a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 23, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 23, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 23, 2023 Thought there'd be more buzzzz but it seems like it's only really affecting New England and Upstate NY. The SW extent of it is still not far enough to draw everyone in. But I'll take 4" on the low side to 12" on the high side anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Thought there'd be more buzzzz but it seems like it's only really affecting New England and Upstate NY. The SW extent of it is still not far enough to draw everyone in. But I'll take 4" on the low side to 12" on the high side anyday. NEPA/Poconos seems to be on the fringe. We might be able to squeak out an inch at least, more if the cold can hold its ground. This is soooo typical for this area during La Niña years: front end thump with an ice topping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 hours ago, StretchCT said: Thought there'd be more buzzzz but it seems like it's only really affecting New England and Upstate NY. The SW extent of it is still not far enough to draw everyone in. But I'll take 4" on the low side to 12" on the high side anyday. It's intriguing how consistent Boston-ish area is being bullseye'd the past couple days. I'd be sad if I was them, b/c we all know how it USUALLY works out beging 4-6 days out. Now... where will it actually bullseye .. farther south, or father north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 24, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 hours ago, StretchCT said: I'll take 4" on the low side to 12" on the high side anyday. 🤣 That’s what she said.. lol.. Couldn’t resist. Also.. share the wealth you people. Us Mid-Atlantic folk would like some of the action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, TheComet said: NEPA/Poconos seems to be on the fringe. We might be able to squeak out an inch at least, more if the cold can hold its ground. This is soooo typical for this area during La Niña years: front end thump with an ice topping. Man, idk what is is, but i find it so hard for me to get excited for these type of systems. Front end snow thump to mix and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Man, idk what is is, but i find it so hard for me to get excited for these type of systems. Front end snow thump to mix and rain. Meh, 18Z GFS looks wack. Not much precip at all. But I'll take it instead of slop/ice/rain. New England and upstate NY have your snow. Edited February 24, 2023 by TheComet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 24, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 24, 2023 EFI these values between 0.7-0 8are borderline for a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 24, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 24, 2023 Two lows competing, though eventually, the coastal will win out, but that timing is still up in the air. ECMWF has trended a little weaker with the inland low, ceding some strength to the coastal. GEFS don't have a lot of variability, unless you are on the fringe. The main shortwave isn't particularly deep, and the SE ridge is forcing it up and over, but there is a little sharpness and some negative tilt going on. There is some interaction with the northern branch, not really phasing at our longitude, but some type of inverted like troffing could extend NW of the coastal as the energy progresses through. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Best EPS run yet for interior Central PA. 50-60% chance of measursble white (~1"+) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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