Arctic Sea Ice

[Hiramite]

The latest from the top of the world...

[Hiramite]

Even with the PV in place for just about the entire winter, the Arctic sea ice continues to suffer.

 

[1816]

56 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Even with the PV in place for just about the entire winter, the Arctic sea ice continues to suffer.

 

Yikes. Probably not how we want to go into melt season.  

[so_whats_happening]

Weather systems poking into the Arctic are causing all sorts of extent and area changes but still managing to be ok enough for now. It looks like we are getting a bit of the high pressure regime to take hold a bit and allow some of the thicker ice along the Canadian Archipelago to push over to Alaska and the Beaufort sea. This is  crucial as open seas in this portion of the Arctic really help warm waters and keep ice way too thin. If we can manage to hold alot of the ice in place coming up across the region from CAA to ESS (western portion of the Arctic from our perspective) it may be another season that can hold on to some thickness to maybe gain for next season. We look to be about at an average of 1.5m across the basin the Laptev and Kara seas just didnt seem to have a chance this year unfortunately. They froze over much quicker than expected but have yet to really produce much more than .5m to 1m thick ice. Laptev might get a little lucky with potential high pressure pushing some thicker ice that way.

One of those times I hope we see a similar setup to last summer across Alaska with constant troughing and cold conditions reaching up into the Arctic at times but this means we roast across the country.

I hope we don't continue to get ridging flooding the region with warmth as we continue through April and May to help induce melt ponding, time will tell of course. We will continue to gain thickness (at least we should) until about mid may area as the air will still be cold enough to allow it. Compaction will be our friend hopefully this year

[so_whats_happening]

This is not looking good continued warmth taking place in the CAA to ESS/Chukchi region. This has shown a pretty decent reduction just north of Alaska already just from moving ice. Melt ponding is starting up in earnest in this region and really would not be surprised if this is the first region to open up, may have large anomalies come May if this pattern continues. I think the one potential saving grace could be if we continue with the wind pattern presented toward the end of the month with strong easterlies across the region moving the thicker ice in to help retain the pack a bit and if somehow we do the pattern flip of last year where we had a rather worrisome to kind scary start to a much more mellow second half of the season. Still a long ways to go but with heat continuing up near the CAA this early on (+8 to +15) anoms this time of year mean temps in the teens and potentially pushing 20s, 30s if the anoms and things open up.

You want to see those temps enter the picture next month and peak at just below freezing during june and july. One thing to watch as a key to potential issues is just how quickly we may lose the western Canada/ Alaska snow pack. Models have been trying to pop the ridge from the plains and SW north through the rockies allowing the warmth to come in from the pacific and cause a nice downsloping event.

Unfortunately this map is a little deceiving as this is measured at 80N to the pole so we would think average so thats good. The large black circle on the hycom chart is 80N for reference. It unfortunately does not tell us much about periphery regions and again unfortunately may not know the full extent until end of the month when we have a better picture. Thickness increases should continue in the deeper portion of the Arctic through the rest of this month and as we turn the corner in May we start to lose that and rather quickly in the second half of May.

[so_whats_happening]

2 weeks later and we are done with thickening the sea ice not much has changed in the sea ice graphic from above so decided not to post a new one. The Laptev or Kara seas may try to open up quicker than first thought compared to the Beaufort/Chukchi sea region surprisingly. Persistent warmth is still showing up in this Chukchi but with far thinner ice over into the Atlantic side it takes just one pronounced ridging pattern pattern to just melt most of that away quickly. These will be fun maps to watch this summer. So far the High Arctic as denoted from the DMI chart above shows we have had persistent clouds and upper level low keeping things cool still. The only two regions so far accumulating warming potential are Sea of Okhotsk near Kamchatka and the Bering Sea which is depleting its ice by the day. There has been persistent ridging into this region for most of winter and so far this spring. Hopefully melt ponds aren't nearly as threatening this year but this is only the beginning. We have a long month ahead of us with things that can change rather rapidly. If we can manage less melt potential up to the summer solstice we may be able to squeak out another season of gains, though small it is possible.

Comparing last year to this year this is a bit concerning March- April this year versus March through June last year. We had consistent troughing through much of the high Arctic so it allowed for a continuation of clouds and cool weather last year. This year we have had some pretty big ridges poking into the Western Arctic mainly and through Scandinavia the last two months. The ridges help compact the ice but allow more solar radiation through warming the seas around the ice. Some pretty notable years in the looks of our current situation with heights. 

2012,2016,2018 of course this does not always tell what will happen late season. Take 2020 for instance leading up to summer it was rather chilly then as we got to end of June Early July things plummeted making for the second lowest sea ice on record. We see how quickly things changed in the charts above for 2012. Really hope in 2 weeks we have a continuation of overall boring conditions up there. Boring sucks but in this boring is good for this region.

[so_whats_happening]

Well things are holding up pretty well. Open waters in the Chukchi, Laptev, and Kara seas now will continue to warm those regions but we are quickly approaching solstice. We would need constant sun to occur through this time period to the end of the month to really ramp up ice loss across the basin. Forecasts are tending to a +AO by mid month to the end of the month and will only help to reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the Arctic. Pretty crazy to see so far back to back years where the Arctic is doing OK for now. Still a lot of melting season to go but if we manage to hold onto a +AO through much of the rest of June into July we may have just had another season where we got by. Still some decent heat is riding along the edge of the Arctic northern Canada just near the Archipelago has been having some rather intense heat for that region, temps showing up in the 70s and 80s probably even some mid 80s in spots and near the Laptev has seen some pretty intense heat but the heat is just not pushing into the Arctic.

If we do end up past the solstice still holding some decent ground we may be able to say the possibility of a record low year is off the tables. The ice is still rather thin overall so we need to keep an eye on things but seems like a good positive so far. No major heat zones (talking 90+, places in Siberia reached close to 100 last year and areas of western and northern Canada were just baking this same time last year) near 60N either being shown in the long range.

Temps over 80N:

Albedo for periphery sea (60-80N) and the high arctic (80N): 

Again not too bad lets see how the next month is doing. This unfortunately is not a great thing to see. Meanwhile the Antarctic is struggling hard this year. It seems like there is a correlation between the southern hemisphere and la ninas with reducing ice just like there is with el nino and the northern hemisphere seeing reduced ice. Ill have to see if there are any journals out there examining this idea.

Edited June 8, 2022 by so_whats_happening

[MaineJay]

As we get into full melt swing here, I'll try to add some RAMMB imagery from the polar orbiters.

Here's a view of the East Siberian Sea, using band 8. Band 8 is very sensitive to snow crystal size/structure. Cold, fresh snow shows as white, as snow grains increase in size due to melting forces (or rain), the reflectivity chances, and band 8 can see this. The darkening is likely the snow ripening, perhaps even wet on the surface.  Water shows at black. 

You can see the warmth blowing north from Siberian, changing they nature of the snow cover.

[so_whats_happening]

This is not looking good at all sea ice area dropped pretty substantially over the last week. Rather intense low pressure system throwing quite the warm air over the Bering sea, Chukchi, Canadian Archipelago. This was the area we needed to sustain itself if we dont push ourselves to near record lows. I dont think this will be quite as damaging enough as say 2012 but it has really put a dent into the idea of a retention year, we may not see record lows but we could see levels similar to 2020 if this continues.

Here was the 500mb/SLP pattern with temps coinciding. The system is moving toward the north pole and should begin the weakening process but this is a double dose of trouble. Low pressure tends to cause ice to disperse and with the warm advection taking place and stirring up bottom melt ( could call it a triple whammy) im not liking the prospects of this season at all now. This ridging pattern that has setup across the northern Canada region to just west of Greenland has been present for almost 2 months.

GFS shows this pattern continues for the foreseeable future and areas across the most northern reaches of Canada may very well push into the upper 80s low 90s. NW passage is sure to open this year if this continues.

Yesterday

 

7 days ago

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

This is not looking good at all sea ice area dropped pretty substantially over the last week. Rather intense low pressure system throwing quite the warm air over the Bering sea, Chukchi, Canadian Archipelago. This was the area we needed to sustain itself if we dont push ourselves to near record lows. I dont think this will be quite as damaging enough as say 2012 but it has really put a dent into the idea of a retention year, we may not see record lows but we could see levels similar to 2020 if this continues.

Here was the 500mb/SLP pattern with temps coinciding. The system is moving toward the north pole and should begin the weakening process but this is a double dose of trouble. Low pressure tends to cause ice to disperse and with the warm advection taking place and stirring up bottom melt ( could call it a triple whammy) im not liking the prospects of this season at all now. This ridging pattern that has setup across the northern Canada region to just west of Greenland has been present for almost 2 months.

GFS shows this pattern continues for the foreseeable future and areas across the most northern reaches of Canada may very well push into the upper 80s low 90s. NW passage is sure to open this year if this continues.

Yesterday

 

7 days ago

I should add it looks like the low pressure system got down to about 975mb GFS has it going a little lower before it begins to fill in. This is what happens when you have rapid near record snow melt occur in the month of May into early June. There is just no barrier anymore.

[so_whats_happening]

Starting to see signs of Greenland experiencing a day or two where most of the land mass may go above freezing except the very center where some of the thickest ice is. Just barely below freezing during that time. GFS has this showing up end of the month into early August. Will continue to watch this but look for a potential major melt situation showing up in the next week via model output.

We saw this occur last year at a fairly similar time. It is still long range but a rather anomalous upper level trough forming near the Hudson bay/ western Baffin bay region will allow SW flow to push into Greenland flooding the area with higher dew points and temps. 

Sea ice in extent and area is still holding its ground. We are lucky that there was not some pre conditioning situations in April and May, even with the rapid retreat of snowfall that took place. Im curious to see how it holds into the latter half of August. We wont be setting a record or near record this year but volume continues to follow trendlines downward and this is still by far the most important metric we have in the Arctic to the health of the system. 

By the looks of charts we have moved into a step function look for the sea ice volume. If the pattern holds we could very well be looking at another sharp decline within the next few years coinciding with an El Nino that may be forming into winter 2023/24 or 24/25 (usually we get a year or so of normalish conditions in between events)

[MaineJay]

Let's hope a big storm doesn't crash the party on the Pacific side. The arm of ice towards Wrangel Island looks pretty dodgy as well as the stuff in the Northern Beaufort area.

[telejunkie]

Still about a month to go of melt before Arctic starts to build ice again. Temps above 80N now seemed to dip below 0C. Overall health of the ice is becoming a bit tattered in the 80N region on the Siberian side....see how that progresses. But extent remains strong compared to recent years, even better than 2021...for the time being

[MaineJay]

On 8/24/2022 at 3:23 PM, telejunkie said:

Still about a month to go of melt before Arctic starts to build ice again. Temps above 80N now seemed to dip below 0C. Overall health of the ice is becoming a bit tattered in the 80N region on the Siberian side....see how that progresses. But extent remains strong compared to recent years, even better than 2021...for the time being

There's a sizable hole north of 85° on the Laptev side, might even stretch to within 100 miles of the north pole. Hope Santa has his swim trunks.

As the Arctic continues to transition from pack ice, to smaller pieces, the effects of wind become greater.  This puts more Ilice at risk to storm damage. It also increases the ability for mixing up the warmer waters beneath the "fresher" water lens on top.  

  Only need 15sq miles of ice in an area of 100sq miles to count as 100% extent.  It's great that these numbers are higher, but they may not capture the quality of ice over time.

  

[so_whats_happening]

On 8/27/2022 at 6:29 AM, MaineJay said:

There's a sizable hole north of 85° on the Laptev side, might even stretch to within 100 miles of the north pole. Hope Santa has his swim trunks.

As the Arctic continues to transition from pack ice, to smaller pieces, the effects of wind become greater.  This puts more Ilice at risk to storm damage. It also increases the ability for mixing up the warmer waters beneath the "fresher" water lens on top.  

  Only need 15sq miles of ice in an area of 100sq miles to count as 100% extent.  It's great that these numbers are higher, but they may not capture the quality of ice over time.

  

Beige is ice that is dry as we get closer to green and yellow ice is much more water laden melt ponds just meh ice in general. That definitely is one sizeable hole

Edited August 28, 2022 by so_whats_happening

[so_whats_happening]

On 7/20/2022 at 12:25 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Starting to see signs of Greenland experiencing a day or two where most of the land mass may go above freezing except the very center where some of the thickest ice is. Just barely below freezing during that time. GFS has this showing up end of the month into early August. Will continue to watch this but look for a potential major melt situation showing up in the next week via model output.

We saw this occur last year at a fairly similar time. It is still long range but a rather anomalous upper level trough forming near the Hudson bay/ western Baffin bay region will allow SW flow to push into Greenland flooding the area with higher dew points and temps. 

Sea ice in extent and area is still holding its ground. We are lucky that there was not some pre conditioning situations in April and May, even with the rapid retreat of snowfall that took place. Im curious to see how it holds into the latter half of August. We wont be setting a record or near record this year but volume continues to follow trendlines downward and this is still by far the most important metric we have in the Arctic to the health of the system. 

By the looks of charts we have moved into a step function look for the sea ice volume. If the pattern holds we could very well be looking at another sharp decline within the next few years coinciding with an El Nino that may be forming into winter 2023/24 or 24/25 (usually we get a year or so of normalish conditions in between events)

Well we did have an event occur where we saw a large amount of melt back toward the end of July on Greenland, but now Greenland will probably be experiencing the largest warming this season this coming weekend. 

2m temps with corresponding 500mb/mslp map

You can see how backed-up flow is in the Atlantic right now. Large area of troughing over eastern Europe and Russia/ Siberia. If this was winter I would take a wild guess this would have been some interesting model tracking times lol

Edited September 2, 2022 by so_whats_happening

[Bradjl2009]

On 9/2/2022 at 12:59 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Well we did have an event occur where we saw a large amount of melt back toward the end of July on Greenland, but now Greenland will probably be experiencing the largest warming this season this coming weekend. 

2m temps with corresponding 500mb/mslp map

You can see how backed-up flow is in the Atlantic right now. Large area of troughing over eastern Europe and Russia/ Siberia. If this was winter I would take a wild guess this would have been some interesting model tracking times lol

The first week of September looked to be rough with sea ice loss too, but since Labor Day or so, things have been much slower with melting. Hopefully within the next week we will hit the minimum for 2022. It was looking like we had a good shot if having more ice than 2021's minimum, but that's not too likely now. 

[Hiramite]

@Bradjl2009

I spy that the corner appears to have been turned...

[Bradjl2009]

9 hours ago, Hiramite said:

@Bradjl2009

I spy that the corner appears to have been turned...

I agree, at least. Kind of disappointing as it was looking like there was potential a month ago for the minimum for this year to be even higher than last year's. It still ended up being a higher minimum than any year besides last year since 2015.

[Hiramite]

[Hiramite]

10/24/22:  This past week's wx conditions in the arctic.

Edited October 24, 2022 by Hiramite

[so_whats_happening]

Temps seemed to have flatlined since the end of October Probably just a step down ensuing , would rather see that than spikes but it is worrisome to see it this early in the season.

Anyway the ice seems to be coming along fairly well sea ice area approaching 2000's average and extent still hugging around the 2010's average as it has most of this year. Some positives in the situation going on up there.  Unfortunately while the Arctic is doing ok the Antarctic is having a really rough go of it this year. Been hugging the 2 standard deviation line most of their winter (our summer) and actually looks like it produced a record low a few days ago. The area around the volcanic eruption still showing quite the anomaly this year. Would love to see some research into that.

 

Snowfall has picked up nice as well across western Canada and much of Eurasia. Lets see where we are as we get close to December. SPV holding on quite strong for this time of year so we shall see how the disruptions play out.

[Hiramite]

A couple of updates...

[so_whats_happening]

I know we don't talk about both hemispheres much but globally we are now below 2016 in sea ice area which at the time was the lowest on record. We were also in a Super Nino during this time. Currently in a 3rd year La Nina and the ice is just getting obliterated down there.

[so_whats_happening]

Falling close to midway in the season Comparison from last year to this year. More flushing of the Atlantic side ice through the Fram strait, thicker ice entering Beaufort sea (little more extensive last year), thicker ice in the Laptev and Russia/Siberia side of the Arctic except for Kara sea region about the same. Baffin bay doing decent the extensive +NAO is probably helping that overall not bad. Let see how we look toward March or April.