Iceresistance Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 @ElectricStorm was spot on on the other severe weather threat this weekend and into next week! Plus, that is something you don't see everyday on the D6 outlook in February. This also includes @Ingyball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voltwaffle Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Enhanced now. Was quite surprised myself when I checked the weather earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 Uh oh @ElectricStorm @voltwaffle, this is from the Euro Model, and why is it showing discrete Supercells over us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) I’m off Sunday but if we remain in the enhanced risk I’m gonna go in to work to observe/help with what I can. Even if we get pushed out of the enhanced, probably gonna have another wind/fire day. Probably can’t justify me coming in in that case though Thankfully the weather finally calms down here starting tomorrow until Sunday. Edited February 23, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voltwaffle Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 17 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Uh oh @ElectricStorm @voltwaffle, this is from the Euro Model, and why is it showing discrete Supercells over us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 I'm starting to be very worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harberr62 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I’m thinking Oklahoma to Iowa. Bad day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, Harberr62 said: I’m thinking Oklahoma to Iowa. Bad day. They mentioned that the lower instability could be limiting the severe weather factor north of Kansas City, MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Definitely concerning, especially for February. It'll be interesting to see how quickly the storms transition to linear. I think it'll probably be a squall by the time it gets to me but there's definitely going to be some decent tornado potential, especially further west. There's really not very many big Feb events here, biggest one I can think of is 2/10/09, 15 hatched moderate risk day, but other than that it's pretty rare to get anything higher than a slight risk, and even that's pretty rare for this time of year. Good thing this isn't May though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 39 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Definitely concerning, especially for February. It'll be interesting to see how quickly the storms transition to linear. I think it'll probably be a squall by the time it gets to me but there's definitely going to be some decent tornado potential, especially further west. There's really not very many big Feb events here, biggest one I can think of is 2/10/09, 15 hatched moderate risk day, but other than that it's pretty rare to get anything higher than a slight risk, and even that's pretty rare for this time of year. Good thing this isn't May though Or April, then we would be absolutely be sweating bullets! We would be facing a guaranteed High Risk if it was in the peak Spring Storm Season. It could be previewing on what is going to come later this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 23, 2023 Initial storms will be supercells but based on the strength of the system, should go linear pretty fast. I don’t think it’s gonna be a big tornado day for that reason. Low-levels aren’t a slam dunk either because there are signs of capping or weak low-level instability. Could change but that’s where I’m at right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Initial storms will be supercells but based on the strength of the system, should go linear pretty fast. I don’t think it’s gonna be a big tornado day for that reason. Low-levels aren’t a slam dunk either because there are signs of capping or weak low-level instability. Could change but that’s where I’m at right now Well, the squall line could be powerful and create powerful QLCS tornadoes with the strong shear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Initial storms will be supercells but based on the strength of the system, should go linear pretty fast. I don’t think it’s gonna be a big tornado day for that reason. Low-levels aren’t a slam dunk either because there are signs of capping or weak low-level instability. Could change but that’s where I’m at right now Yeah i'm pretty well on the fence about it unless the strength of the cap changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Initial storms will be supercells but based on the strength of the system, should go linear pretty fast. I don’t think it’s gonna be a big tornado day for that reason. Low-levels aren’t a slam dunk either because there are signs of capping or weak low-level instability. Could change but that’s where I’m at right now I forgot to mention in the other post that there are cases where there can be a nasty tornado outbreak from a squall line, it is generally rarer compared to a more typical one with discrete supercells though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 24, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: I forgot to mention in the other post that there are cases where there can be a nasty tornado outbreak from a squall line, it is generally rarer compared to a more typical one with discrete supercells though. No doubt. But those tornado outbreaks are almost exclusively in the southeast for a reason. They lose daytime heating, they still have strong warm and moisture advection going for them… and they don’t have a cap trying to stop ascent. If they do, it’s weak and can be breached. We have issues with moisture this time of year, and obviously we’re far closer to the source region of EMLs than the southeast so we can count on them to be non-negligible at least most of the time. Also can’t forget the time of year. It’s February in the southern plains. Not saying it’s impossible/won’t happen but theres a reason we don’t hear of or think about significant QLCS tornado outbreaks in February in this part of the country. Edited February 24, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 looks like a chaser party out there regardless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 24, 2023 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Gerb131 said: looks like a chaser party out there regardless Unfortunately. I get we're at the tail end of winter and people are itching to get out there but these storms are gonna be flying. A quick point-and-click shows this... mean storm motion of 90 mph. A right moving supercell would be moving at around 65 mph. Right on the border of west OK/eastern TX Panhandle. No thanks Edited February 24, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 It looks like that the odds of a Derecho for Sunday has increased, SREF has higher Derecho Parameters compared to the Supercell Composite and Tornado parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 (edited) Really gotta watch moisture return, if the NAM verifies this will be a non event, but I think moisture should be better than what the NAM has. I don't really see this going above enhanced unless the models really start to uptrend though. Still a potentially dangerous event though. Edited February 24, 2023 by ElectricStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 24, 2023 (edited) Looking more and more likely I’ll be getting called in Sunday, whether it’s due to severe weather or fire weather. Or both. New high wind watch is up. 40-45 mph sustained gusting to 70. Edited February 24, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted February 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 24, 2023 The models have busted with high temperatures by being too warm the last couple of days now. Usually, this would give me concerns about any severe weather event, but with a negatively tilted trough and a surface low in the 980s moisture return will likely be underestimated. I do think linear is the favor storm mode in this setup due to forcing, but there may be a small window where if any supercells can stay discreet it could become dangerous quickly. Despite linear storm mode, with environmental wind gusts approaching 50 mph across the Plains, pretty much any storm that becomes surface based will produce significant winds. I would not be surprised to see 70 to 80 mph winds along the line assuming we do get the moisture return that's being seen on the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 0z HRRR has 60+ dews just north of the Red River at 0z Sunday evening, with storms developing in the TX panhandle going linear almost instantly. I think I'll get a good squall line coming through here, which I am perfectly fine with. But I think chasers will have a tough day finding tors. For the initial Day 2 outlook my guess is: 5% tor, 30% wind, 15% hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 25, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 25, 2023 (edited) I hope HRRR is wrong for two reasons 70+ mph winds behind the front The obvious 3km NAM looks more realistic with the rapid transition to linear but the winds don't look any better Edited February 25, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Welp I got downgraded, enhanced is still there out west though. Hopefully we can still get a good storm out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 25, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 25, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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