February 22-24, 2023 | NE/Mid-Atl Winter Storm

[MaineJay]

A fairly active time period shaping up.  I know this is a bit if a late time frame for the thread, but there's considerable differences in regard to shortwave timing.  ECMWF focus on the earlier end, whereas the has favors the tail end.  They could even be 2 threats in the period, as the flow looks to be zipping along.

  In the even there are two systems, this thread will focus on any lead system, and we'll split off a new thread for the backend.

[MaineJay]

CPC

[HVSNOWSTORM]

This is a nice period for possible 1st moderate snowstorm for some of the year. Nice to have essentially all models and there ens showing a winter event for NYC are on north. As MJ stated possibly 2 waves . 1st on Tues night weds and another larger wave Thursday with more widespread snow and sleet.

Gfs loop and Canadian

 

[MaineJay]

There's a few GEFS members that like the ECMWF, try to wind up the first wave.

Here's the second wave. Seems like stronger first wave, more southerly second wave.  But that's a very general statement that may not hold as the modeling evolves.

 

[Bucikaroo]

59 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

This is a nice period for possible 1st moderate snowstorm for some of the year. Nice to have essentially all models and there ens showing a winter event for NYC are on north. As MJ stated possibly 2 waves . 1st on Tues night weds and another larger wave Thursday with more widespread snow and sleet.

Gfs loop and Canadian

 

As usual rain for us so far

[HVSNOWSTORM]

26 minutes ago, Bucikaroo said:

As usual rain for us so far

Farther south may come after these 2 waves as blocking looks to setup. Things are a bit more skeptical S of NYC but there should be opportunities.

 

Also wouldn't rule out anything at this point especially a front end snow/ sleet to rain farther south.

[JDClapper]

Welp, we tried.

[NEPAsnow]

[Brodozer1]

🙏

[MaineJay]

GEFS are all over the place.

[JDClapper]

EPS was a little more enthused a couple days ago. Slowly stepping away from measurable white in interior Central PA.

[MaineJay]

Wave 1 looks like a diagnosed mess.

Wave 2 is a bit more straight forward, as it doesn't appear to be relying on phasing.  It looks like it's on a more west -east track in quasi zonal flow.  That sub tropical ridge will likely screw the majority of the sub region.  Shortwave needs to dig, and amplify at just the right time for something widespread.  Possible, but probably more in the long shot category.

 

[MaineJay]

It's a shame. You got the 50/50 low, cold to the north, available, but that persistent ridge over the GOMEX just won't quit.  Even looking forward, it wants to migrate west, only to put us on the cold, dry side of the long wave trof.

[HVSNOWSTORM]

The 25th on looks decent with cold pool taking over all Canada and N tier of US. Would at least have the cold air available which wr haven't had basically at all this winter.

 

This is the Euro 0z Ens:

 

[Brodozer1]

👎

[MaineJay]

Looking like a fairly long duration event.  Air to the north seems pretty cold, ratios could really ramp up as one moves north of the R/S line.  Ukie was particularly cold at first glance.

GEFS don't show a ton of variability.

 

[TheRex]

Nothing says spring like the fight between hot and cold. This time the cold is able to push the warmth back down south. And we still have a month until spring. 

Quote

 

[MaineJay]

Good bump from most, if not all, EPS members.

[JDClapper]

Usually this about the time things trend the wrong way down here near the equator... however....

 

 

Edited February 18, 2023 by JDClapper

[JDClapper]

Anything winter works for me.

[JDClapper]

[MaineJay]

7 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Usually this about the time things trend the wrong way down here near the equator... however....

 

 

Was just about to post the same thing.  I know the trend this winter hasn't been good for most, but must have trended cooler up here.  The GFS seems to wind things up too much, so perhaps we see the ridge further flatten.

Ukie seems to be too flat sometimes, so it's even cooler.  Pretty cold airmass to the north, much better than most events this season, hopefully it can be tapped.

 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

1 hour ago, JDClapper said:

Same, looks icy.

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

High pressure will bring a brief dry period Tuesday night and most
of Wednesday.  After that, there continues to be strong support
among today`s 12Z guidance bringing a potentially significant winter
storm toward the region, with QPF amounts from ensemble means
ranging from 0.50" to 1.0" areawide, spanning from Wednesday night
through Thursday night, possibly lasting into Friday morning. With
temperatures profiles in pretty good agreement in showing snow as
the dominant precip type at the onset, but there is potential to
periods of freezing rain and/or sleet across portions of the
area, depending on how far north warmer air can advance.

 

[MaineJay]

Just screams winter storm, doesn't it. 🤪