January 18-19, 2023 | Severe Weather

[ElectricStorm]

This is starting to get pretty ridiculous for January, but here we go again with the next system likely bringing another round of severe weather to the south/gulf coast. Day 5 slight risk is up.

SPC also mentions potential for yet another system after that, so the active pattern looks to continue for a while.

Edited January 19, 2023 by OKwx_2001

[ClicheVortex2014]

Nasty Dixie Alley-type hodograph here. Gotta watch for mixed-layer moisture to trend upward because if so, we're looking at another possible outbreak

Edited January 14, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Nasty Dixie Alley-type hodograph here. Gotta watch for mixed-layer moisture to trend upward because if so, we're looking at another possible outbreak

Can't see the image, I'm usually on the School Chromebook and Imgur is blocked.

[Sentinel]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Can't see the image, I'm usually on the School Chromebook and Imgur is blocked.

 

[Iceresistance]

May turn into a sequence with a few days expecting very little to no severe weather

[ClicheVortex2014]

Area average sounding in a east-west strip in N LA. Crazy hodograph. Easily supportive of long-lived supercells. Thankfully the warm sector is pretty narrow.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Seeing quite a bit of talk about cold core tornadoes in the Midwest. Caveat has been that we're outside of the season where it tends to happen, but we have not been experiencing a typical January.

 

Edited January 15, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Neoncyclone]

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Seems like the best potential for discrete warm sector activity will be the next several hours imo. Looks pretty linear later on... though I'm sure there'll be some embedded vortices

[Iceresistance]

There is a sneaky setup over Ohio on the 19th (Tomorrow)

[Iceresistance]

Watching a relatively weak couplet near Pine Bluff, AR

[Iceresistance]

Tornado warnings are popping up now

[NWOhioChaser]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

There is a sneaky setup over Ohio on the 19th (Tomorrow)

Local met posted this for tomorrows storm chances. Could see a small hailer form in the early to mid afternoon. 

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Local met posted this for tomorrows storm chances. Could see a small hailer form in the early to mid afternoon. 

There's also a tornado threat with it.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Storm mode looks more favorable than I expected.

[NWOhioChaser]

Small area of marginal popped up over Western Ohio for tomorrow as well

[ClicheVortex2014]

Nasty looking discrete supercell SE of Little Rock. Right on the warm front so I'm not sure how much longer until it outruns the warm front.

Edited January 18, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Storm mode looks more favorable than I expected.

The one near Pine Bluff is looking really good for 10 AM standards.

[Iceresistance]

Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Nasty looking discrete supercell SE of Little Rock

There is a decrease of CC, but it looks like it may be just noise.

[Iceresistance]

@ClicheVortex2014

I can't confirm this, but there is a debris ball-like signature with a tighter couplet on the Supercell near Pine Bluff, AR

[ClicheVortex2014]

23 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

@ClicheVortex2014

I can't confirm this, but there is a debris ball-like signature with a tighter couplet on the Supercell near Pine Bluff, AR

The key to debris signatures is to see if very low CC values (<75) are located with a velocity signature. What you're seeing is CC values that have been dropped by the radar beam being partially blocked by the heavy rain core of the FFD. When the radar tries to trick me like this, I try to think about where the radar beam is coming from and if the heavy rain or hail could be blocking the beam. This was a pretty good case of it.

This is an extreme example of it, but I'm doing midnight shifts this week so I'm really tired so a picture is probably better than my words right now.

Source: https://blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather-and-climate-at-reading/2014/upgrading-weather-radar-measurements-to-improve-flash-flood-warnings/

Edited January 18, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[NWsnowhio]

Things have gotten “slightly” more interesting up here in my neck of the woods for Thursday afternoon. Local Mets talking more about cold air funnels than brief/weak tornado threat mentioned by SPC in its update. 
 

Other threads are sharing potential snow maps for next week, and I’m all like, “ooh…January funnels!”

[Iceresistance]

Nothing much right now, so far so good.

[Iceresistance]

3 Wind Reports with "Possible Tornado" tagged with it.

[NWOhioChaser]

Another cold rain night in the works for MBY. Lovely