Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 4, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) I’ve been considering opening this thread, as I’ve mentioned this as a timeframe of interest. According to the BSR.. there’s a signal for storminess in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This signal is supported by both the MJO and ENSO SSTs. The MJO is rounding through phases 7 and 8 at the beginning of January, and our La Niña appears to be transitioning to more neutral conditions this month. Despite this support, the MJO is rather weak and now appears to wander in the COD for period of time. The PNA is currently forecasted to be positive; however, it appears to be transitioning to a more neutral or negative position (unfavorable). The NAO is positive, but looks to, likewise, be transitioning to a more neutral or negative position (neutral-favorable). The AO is negative, and looks to remain negative through this period (favorable). No operational model guidance shows a blockbuster.. but the ECMWF and GDPS do show the best signal at 500 MB. The most encouraging signal at the moment is through the ensemble forecasts on all guidance. The GEFS, CMCE, and EPS all clearly show a disturbance that ejects from the mountain west, tracks east, and intensifies near the coast. Now, the GEFS does have a more unfavorable track, whereas the EPS has the most favorable track at the moment. These are the facts as I see them, and as this is a speculative potential, there is no guarantee that a storm will form or have significant impacts. Regardless of what happens, it will be a pleasure analyzing this together with all of you. Cheers to a happy and healthy ‘23.. and Happy Tracking! 12z Ensemble Forecasts | MSLP Members (Hour 204-300) GEFS CMCE EPS 12z Operational Models | 500 MB (Hours 204-240) Spoiler GFS GDPS ECMWF Teleconnections Spoiler NAO Forecast (1/3) AO Forecast (1/3) PNA Forecast (1/3) MJO Forecast (1/3) ENSO SSTs (October-December) BSR (1/14-1/16) Edited January 6, 2023 by Penn State 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 4, 2023 This time period still feels like a double barrel low situation energy pushes down from the north and meets up just in time for a little s/w exiting the SW. Models don't want to lock in on a western ridge yet so everything is rather progressive in the mid latitudes. Should be an interesting time period to watch. Initially had thought 11th-13th but I may be a little too ambitious by a day or two. Pretty far out though want to wait until we get around 120 to start to hone in on some type of idea too much uncertainty this far out. Example being a couple days ago we were looking at a little system around the 6th but since it has figured placement of energy a bit better and now that moves out on the 5th while another little wave comes along on the 8th/9th. Lot of little pieces flowing through so to figure one storm over another past 5 days will be rather difficult. Just going to have to watch but cold may try to start and return end of the second week/mid month time period so that may bring some potential down the road. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 4, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 4, 2023 🤫 just gonna leave this here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 4, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 4, 2023 12z GFS is looking to be going for "glory run" status....an embarrassment of riches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 4, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 4, 2023 Couldn't get those two to dance but still fun....many moons to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 4, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 4, 2023 19 minutes ago, telejunkie said: Couldn't get those two to dance but still fun....many moons to go It’s interesting! It almost looks like there are at least 3 separate potential storms between the 10th and 20th. There’s a 10th-12th which is that near miss on the GFS that you show (It may need it’s own thread at some point), then the 13th-15th.. which looks a bit OTS, suppressed at the moment on the GFS and GDPS. Now, the GFS has one for the 17th-18th too. This is actually sort of playing out like what was shown on the BSR. I know for sure it showed potential on the 16th and 19th. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 4, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 4, 2023 40 minutes ago, Penn State said: It’s interesting! It almost looks like there are at least 3 separate potential storms between the 10th and 20th. There’s a 10th-12th which is that near miss on the GFS that you show (It may need it’s own thread at some point), then the 13th-15th.. which looks a bit OTS, suppressed at the moment on the GFS and GDPS. Now, the GFS has one for the 17th-18th too. This is actually sort of playing out like what was shown on the BSR. I know for sure it showed potential on the 16th and 19th. I mean.....may as well revel the virtual stuff while we can. "Live for today, gone tomorrow" 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Can we pull off a triple phaser... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 19 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: Can we pull off a triple phaser... Only a digital one this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 4, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 🤔 Not really sure how this doesn't come up the coast...but okay Euro. Let's just say it's a near miss though. Edited January 4, 2023 by telejunkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, telejunkie said: 🤔 Not really sure how this doesn't come up the coast...but okay Euro. Let's just say it's a near miss though. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 4, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just a little 12z update.. The ensemble forecasts seem more progressive, OTS. @so_whats_happening mentioned this earlier, as well as the lack of western ridge. That’s concerning. Fair amount of agreement in the ensemble means however, which I suppose is a positive. 12z Ensemble Forecasts | Hour 204-276 Spoiler GEFS EPS CMCE 12z Operational Guidance (Surface) | Hour 204-276 Spoiler GFS ECMWF GDPS 12z Operational Guidance (500 MB) | Hour 204-276 Spoiler GFS ECMWF GDPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: Yeah, EPS was.. interesting. Several big members in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 4, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 4, 2023 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Penn State said: Just a little 12z update.. The ensemble forecasts seem more progressive, OTS. @so_whats_happening mentioned this earlier, as well as the lack of western ridge. That’s concerning. Fair amount of agreement in the ensemble means however, which I suppose is a positive. 12z Ensemble Forecasts | Hour 204-276 Hide contents GEFS EPS CMCE 12z Operational Guidance (Surface) | Hour 204-276 Reveal hidden contents GFS ECMWF GDPS 12z Operational Guidance (500 MB) | Hour 204-276 Reveal hidden contents GFS ECMWF GDPS All three have the banana HP in place... Definitely have some fun wave break action next week from atop the ridge in western Canada...should hopefully light at least one fuse from a southern piece of energy and not just drive them all away. Edited January 4, 2023 by telejunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 5, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 5, 2023 Why would anyone expect anything different? Lol… GFS (GLC 😩) GDPS (SS 😒) ..However, what happens after 240? 500 MB suggests positive tilt, OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) Eps has had a lp off the coast with the spread towards the coast the last few runs, here is 00z eps also gmao phased two pieces at 0z and had enough clarification downstream to really unload on S mid atl area. Attached is h5 evolution and the precip maps its always been a personal exercise to watch for the following 12z euro op runs when gmao decides to have a go. I wouldn’t go as far as to call it a corollary, but “exercise” seems to fit seeing that it’s the new year 🙂 Cheers note: we really need clarification downstream to figure out what could occur during this period. There’s a lot of energy in both the Northern and southern streams currently and a very strong extended pac jet that will cap any cold intrusion so for a winter storm in the east we would need something pretty dynamic w/ some sort of block in downstream flow to assist Edited January 5, 2023 by Poco 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 5, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 hours ago, Poco said: its always been a personal exercise to watch for the following 12z euro op runs when gmao decides to have a go. I wouldn’t go as far as to call it a corollary, but “exercise” seems to fit seeing that it’s the new year 🙂 If I do say so.. this “exercise” seems legit! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 5, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) 12z Model Guidance Update: The plot thickens… 12z Ensemble Forecasts | Hours 180-252 GEFS EPS CMCE 12z Operational Guidance (Surface) | Hours 180-240 Spoiler GFS ECMWF GDPS 12z Operational Guidance (500 MB) | Hours 180-240 Spoiler GFS ECMWF GDPS Edited January 5, 2023 by Penn State 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris2333 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 EPS for interior PA has like a 20-30% chance of measurable snow.. and many of those are significant (6+) events, not a nickel and dimer. Signal is consistent the last several suites too. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Still a bit too far for the WPC extended but cpc taking a stab and they have sone comments on todays suites too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) Cpc 3pm Jan 5th snipped Spoiler “However, shortwave troughing is predicted to move through the eastern CONUS early in week-2 with a potential surface low along the East Coast. There is significant model uncertainty regarding the evolution of this system, with the 0z ECMWF ensemble favoring a track closer to the coast compared to the 0z GEFS and Canadian ensembles. The ECMWF reforecast tool indicates at least a 20 percent chance 3-day precipitation totals exceed the 85th climatological percentile and 1-inch across the Eastern Seaboard early in the period. The probabilities for 3-day precipitation exceeding 1-inch are much lower in the GEFS reforecast tool with the higher probabilities remaining offshore. However, given the enhanced signal in the ECMWF and some support from some individual GEFS ensemble members, a slight risk for heavy precipitation is posted for parts of the Southeast, extending up the East Coast for Jan 13-14. The closer to the coast ECMWF track could increase potential for heavy snowfall on the northwestern side of the surface low, particularly over parts of the central Appalachians and the higher elevations across interior sections of the Northeast, and New England if the system becomes strong enough and manages to pull down enough cold air. Guidance shows a slightly higher chance for the stronger scenario than yesterday, so a slight risk of heavy snow is posted there for early week-2.” “However, given the enhanced signal in the ECMWF and some support from some individual GEFS ensemble members, a slight risk for heavy precipitation is posted for parts of the Southeast, extending up the East Coast for Jan 13-14. The closer to the coast ECMWF track could increase potential for heavy snowfall on the northwestern side of the surface low, particularly over parts of the central Appalachians and the higher elevations across interior sections of the Northeast, and New England if the system becomes strong enough and manages to pull down enough cold air. Guidance shows a slightly higher chance for the stronger scenario than yesterday, so a slight risk of heavy snow is posted there for early week-2.” Edited January 5, 2023 by Poco 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Quite the storm on 18z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Hmmmmm interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 5, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 5, 2023 EPS shift of tails favoring the mid Atlantic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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