HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Perhaps the first snowfall of the season for many. The big 3 all have it now as we are at about Day 4.5: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 7, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 7, 2022 I was just about to start a thread. There's a piece of energy that breaks off the Hudson Bay trof and tries to mingle with the shortwave cutting through the ridge. The GFS is just now picking up on it. All models have been too fast with longwave pattern progression. Rotate everything back a few degrees, and there's a window. It also means there's more traffic in the NW Atlantic, which would help out with the subsequent trof. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 7, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 7, 2022 The caveat to the closed low that tries to move in from the mouth of the St Lawrence, it could shunt the other wave further south. The whole phase or kick question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: I was just about to start a thread. There's a piece of energy that breaks off the Hudson Bay trof and tries to mingle with the shortwave cutting through the ridge. The GFS is just now picking up on it. All models have been too fast with longwave pattern progression. Rotate everything back a few degrees, and there's a window. It also means there's more traffic in the NW Atlantic, which would help out with the subsequent trof. You can see the trend in the NAtl the last 2 runs of the Gfs which have aided in made this into a potential snow threat. Cmc was first to advertise this snow threat I might add. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 7, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: You can see the trend in the NAtl the last 2 runs of the Gfs which have aided in made this into a potential snow threat. Cmc was first to advertise this snow threat I might add. Gonna have to watch how that little PV lobe behaves. It'll likely help keep some warmth at bay, as it tries to knock down the ridging ahead of the advancing systems. The bigger question is, will it help snow chances. Right now it's just not far enough west for a big storm for us. The models have struggled mightily, and with such weak steering, they might even struggle more. We'll keep taking our shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: Gonna have to watch how that little PV lobe behaves. It'll likely help keep some warmth at bay, as it tries to knock down the ridging ahead of the advancing systems. The bigger question is, will it help snow chances. Right now it's just not far enough west for a big storm for us. The models have struggled mightily, and with such weak steering, they might even struggle more. We'll keep taking our shots. Big storm would be great but I'll take 2-4"/3-6" and be thrilled for now. Might be a little tougher up your way. But we watch and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 Gotta love when wake up to a big shift on all models except the cmc in this case which is ironically a good thing. Also nice when it happens at this range and not day 7+, giving up me more hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 12z GFS looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 close call will it change over at the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 12 z euro snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 7, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 7, 2022 Very odd path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 7, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 7, 2022 Ukie with a strong cut off east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 7, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 7, 2022 Nothing like being in the bullseye for the CMC 5 days out!@#$@%@ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Pretty decent "bump" on the 12z EPS for some measurable white for CPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 (edited) 18 GFS is colder and even almost gets NYC in on good snows: Edited December 7, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: 18 GFS is colder and even almost gets NYC in on good snows: What the hell is going on with this threat?? Sneaking up on us ... 😮 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted December 8, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, JDClapper said: What the hell is going on with this threat?? Sneaking up on us ... 😮 I like the looks of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 8, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 8, 2022 If there's gonna be a fly in the ointment, it'll be this fella. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 8, 2022 17 hours ago, MaineJay said: Gonna have to watch how that little PV lobe behaves. It'll likely help keep some warmth at bay, as it tries to knock down the ridging ahead of the advancing systems. The bigger question is, will it help snow chances. Right now it's just not far enough west for a big storm for us. The models have struggled mightily, and with such weak steering, they might even struggle more. We'll keep taking our shots. It just completely hammers the first wave friday with nothing more than a few showers/ snow showers. Allows at least the second wave for sunday/monday to be something. I wanna say it may take a further SW look than SE NY but we shall see. Cool little nugget of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 8, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 8, 2022 5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: It just completely hammers the first wave friday with nothing more than a few showers/ snow showers. Allows at least the second wave for sunday/monday to be something. I wanna say it may take a further SW look than SE NY but we shall see. Cool little nugget of energy. CMC trend shows how their relationship has evolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 8, 2022 33 minutes ago, MaineJay said: CMC trend shows how their relationship has evolved. Would also potentially play a better role in the closed low that moves across the country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 GFS is the most amped with this system as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Wpc has blues! As of yesterday PM it was a big nothing burger on the WPC prob map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Euro, NAM and RGEM give mets cover to tell people to relax.. GFS and CMC the most stout and impactful, snowwise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 20 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Euro, NAM and RGEM give mets cover to tell people to relax.. GFS and CMC the most stout and impactful, snowwise. Gfs most amped with jackpot area around 10". Rest of the gang a solid 2-5" with maybe some 6" lollis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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