Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 16, 2022 Social Media Crew Share Posted November 16, 2022 I'm dreaming of a white.. Thanksgiving? It is expected that over the next several days temperatures will be below normal across the eastern United States. After that, modeling shows a moderation to more seasonal, and potentially above average, temperatures as we approach Thanksgiving. There's quite a bit of uncertainty as to the strength and duration of the moderation, and its influence on potential disturbances during this timeframe. Considering this uncertainty, this thread is both speculative and broad. What there seems to be agreement on is that there will be a disturbance impacting the eastern United States during this timeframe. This speculation is supported by an organic forecasting method using the Bearing Sea Rule (BSR), which suggests an eastern trough and accompanying disturbances during this timeframe. Also in support is the MJO, which is forecasted to be approaching phases 7 and 8 towards the end of November. The forecasted teleconnections are a coin flip, but the NAO, AO, and PNA all appear likely to be on the negative side. Though a -NAO and -AO are favorable, the -PNA is less favorable. As for modeling, the GFS, GDPS, and ECMWF each handle the trough axis and energy differently; with the GDPS being the most progressive (S+E), and the ECMWF being the most aggressive (N+W). In terms of my thoughts on this speculative potential, I have the notion to believe that warmth will prevail; however, I sense that the door is open for a more southerly route. I also sense that a Miller B is on the table, especially when I look at the ensembles, and even the BSR reflection. With that being said, hopefully the more seasoned and knowledgeable folks on this forum can support or reject these notions. I have posted an ensemble comparison in support of this potential, and all other data can be found in the spoiler. Regardless, it will be a pleasure to track this speculative potential with everyone on the forum! As always, happy tracking! Ensemble Comparison | Hour 198 (12z GEFS, CMCE, EPS) Spoiler Teleconnections (-NAO, -AO, -PNA) NAO AO PNA Bearing Sea Rule (BSR) | 11-26 + 11-30 MJO Modeling GFS (12z Hours 174-258) | Surface + 500mb ECMWF (12z Hours 174-240) | Surface + 500mb GDPS (12z Hours 174-240) | Surface + 500mb Ensembles GEFS EPS CMCE 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 GFS has been interesting the past week, spitting out some snow monsters at varying locations, but keeping the idea that something significant looms for the region. 12z EPS members went fairly zzz for snow in my neck of the woods, but chance of precip is high. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 16, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted November 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, JDClapper said: 12z EPS members went fairly zzz for snow in my neck of the woods, but chance of precip is high. The Euro operational was the same. However, one observation I had on the Euro for the 20th timeframe was that it was too far west / amped. Each situation is different, but hoping it’s the left field (literally too far left.. lol) solution. Long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 16, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted November 16, 2022 No interaction on the 18z GFS. The cutoff energy ejects south and east and just sprints along untouched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 17, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted November 17, 2022 The models are working through what this will look like.. but the pieces are there for something significant. There was definitely a lot left on the table here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 17, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted November 17, 2022 So.. This GFS run sparked my historical curiosity. I need to do more research, but some of the largest Thanksgiving snowstorms occurred in 1950 and 1971. Coincidentally, both of those storms occurred on November 24th and 25th. This storm would land right around those same historic dates. The storm in 1950 was coined as "The Great Appalachian Storm". The storm from 1971 dropped around 2 feet of snow in Northeastern parts of Pennsylvania and Southeastern parts of New York state. You can read about it via the Washington Post using this link. Does anyone on the forum remember these events? Curious if there are any pattern similarities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted November 17, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Penn State said: So.. This GFS run sparked my historical curiosity. I need to do more research, but some of the largest Thanksgiving snowstorms occurred in 1950 and 1971. Coincidentally, both of those storms occurred on November 24th and 25th. This storm would land right around those same historic dates. The storm in 1950 was coined as "The Great Appalachian Storm". The storm from 1971 dropped around 2 feet of snow in Northeastern parts of Pennsylvania and Southeastern parts of New York state. You can read about it via the Washington Post using this link. Does anyone on the forum remember these events? Curious if there are any pattern similarities? This is much closer to something larger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 17, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) GDPS doesn't incorporate the cold air like the GFS, but definitely has the storm. I imagine this would produce quite the ice storm for the interior if it verified verbatim. Edited November 17, 2022 by Penn State Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 17, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted November 17, 2022 ECMWF looks late.. but is it that the energy in the SW lags and misses the energy diving in from the north? If those remain hooked up, I think it looks much different. Once again, I think the models are sorting it out, but there’s a lot there if the energies can align. Both the ECMWF and GFS now show that stall in the late frames. Interesting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 6z GFS, verbatim too warm for MidAtl, but wow northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Past 48 hrs of GFS runs. I think we are getting close to a solution. 🤔🤣 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 17, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 17, 2022 Right now, I'd put my money on a late phase, too late for most, maybe all. But, maybe that's me hoping for a few more weeks of fall to finish outdoor projects... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 42 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Right now, I'd put my money on a late phase, too late for most, maybe all. But, maybe that's me hoping for a few more weeks of fall to finish outdoor projects... Not a bad bet. 9 out of 10 times, if not more, that's how it goes. 9.6 out of 10 times? 74% of stats are made up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: Not a bad bet. 9 out of 10 times, if not more, that's how it goes. 9.6 out of 10 times? 74% of stats are made up. If you live in Maine, you catch more late phases 100 percent of the time. 😉 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) Right now we have the 3 likely solutions of warmer and more rain 6z GFS, Euro suppressed, CMC middleish ground/ 0z GFS 6z GFS 0z Euro, which then goes on to squash/ dry out the precip CMC (Middle ground) 0z GFS (middle ground) I would at this point argue against the warm solution as cold has generally been well forecast to under forecast with hold cold it will be. I'd lean towards suppression-the middle ground solution at this juncture. Edited November 17, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Right now we have the 3 likely solutions of warmer and more rain 6z GFS, Euro suppressed, CMC middleish ground/ 0z GFS 6z GFS 0z Euro, which then goes on to squash/ dry out the precip CMC (Middle ground) 0z GFS (middle ground) I would at this point argue against the warm solution as cold has generally been well forecast to under forecast with hold cold it will be. I'd lean towards suppression-the middle ground solution at this juncture. 12z GFS spitting out an interior monster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 17, 2022 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted November 17, 2022 22 minutes ago, JDClapper said: MOG run! First of many I hope 🤞 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted November 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) Boom goes the dynamite.... Edited November 17, 2022 by telejunkie 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 44 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Absolutely beautiful 😍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Is it time to renew my weatherbell subscription? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) Monster, too bad I’m in the cutoff on that one haha. GFS was sniffing them out last year as well. Edited November 17, 2022 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 37 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Is it time to renew my weatherbell subscription? Thinking the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 12z CMC and Euro like, "have a nice weather black friday". 🥴 Edited November 17, 2022 by JDClapper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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