November 3 - 6, 2022 | Severe Weather | Horrible Tornado Outbreak for Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas

[Iceresistance]

Well hello there.

[ClicheVortex2014]

If you get model agreement on a trough like this, at this time of year, less than a week out... yeah, severe weather is probably gonna happen. Could eject with a positive tilt and produce a little severe weather but it appears there's good enough reason to believe that won't be the case.

Edited October 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

Now introducing a risk for flooding due to GFS consistency for very heavy rain for Oklahoma, 6-8 inches in 2-3 days!

[ClicheVortex2014]

Only 96 hours out from a massive western trough. The cut-off/closed trough hybrid in the east would normally be a problem but we're looking at this western trough becoming a closed low. That'll move slow so there'll be plenty of time for recovery ahead of it. Especially for the southern Plains where WAA is already happening.

 

Edited October 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Won't be surprised if we see an additional day 4+ slight risk

 

[Iceresistance]

@ClicheVortex2014Slight Risk on D5 and D6 on the SPC, WPC still has really high QPF for those two days. 

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah this has my full attention. Could get interesting around here. Hopefully it gets out of here by Saturday though, don't want anything during the football game 

 

[Iceresistance]

I'm more worried about the rain than the severe weather, just warned my High School because of this

[Ingyball]

On 10/29/2022 at 1:10 PM, ClicheVortex2014 said:

If you get model agreement on a trough like this, at this time of year, less than a week out... yeah, severe weather is probably gonna happen. Could eject with a positive tilt and produce a little severe weather but it appears there's good enough reason to believe that won't be the case.

Interestingly enough the Plains get some of their worst tornado outbreaks with these deep positively tilted troughs. They usually end up being multi-day outbreaks too. One of our meteorologists here did some in house studies and that jet orientation if especially favorable for supercells when all else is. Only thing about it occurring in November is lack of moisture return (usually). If this setup was showing up in Mid April we'd be setting off alarm bells here. 

 

[Ingyball]

There's 2 things I'd bet on with this system unless we see it trend significantly weaker.

1. Models are almost certainly too progressive. Energy rounding the base will slow the movement of the system and like the storm last week, there's a lot of energy feeding into this trough.

2. I'd expect the track of  the surface low to trend northwest. Models almost always underestimate warm air advection with these strong wound up troughs. 

As for flooding, I don't foresee widespread flooding (assuming 7-10" remain localized). It's been so dry over the Plains the ground will soak it up immediately. However, if some of those heavier storms train over a city flash flooding could get bad real fast due to the concrete. Also models are likely underestimating the warm air advection rain (though I think the Euro has been decent at modeling it). I think we're going to see widespread 1-3" just from that. The more convective rain southeast of the low is going to be more isolated but I would not be surprised if someone ended up with 8" or more. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

3 hours ago, Ingyball said:

Interestingly enough the Plains get some of their worst tornado outbreaks with these deep positively tilted troughs. They usually end up being multi-day outbreaks too. One of our meteorologists here did some in house studies and that jet orientation if especially favorable for supercells when all else is. Only thing about it occurring in November is lack of moisture return (usually). If this setup was showing up in Mid April we'd be setting off alarm bells here. 

 

There's definitely some factors that favor significant severe weather events with positive tilt troughs... we don't need to look further than 12/10/21. Can't always sleep on positive tilts, that's for sure. That's gonna stick in our minds for a long time.

But, obviously, we're naturally gonna pay more attention to negative tilts than positive. But it's definitely a case-by-case basis.

Edited October 31, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Decent event on Thursday for the Texas panhandle. Gotta get some more surface-based instability to maybe pull off some panhandle magic. Otherwise, it looks like a mostly damaging wind/hail day.

 

 

Impressive environment in south-central Texas on Friday. Seems >2" hail is possible.

Edited October 31, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[NWOhioChaser]

Reed highlighting multiple chase days in store for later this week. 

Edited October 31, 2022 by NWOhioChaser

[StormfanaticInd]

This has outbreak potential 

[StormfanaticInd]

Plenty of wind energy for my area Saturday night🤔 

Edited October 31, 2022 by StormfanaticInd

[Ingyball]

EFI is starting hint at a pretty big heavy rain threat starting in Oklahoma and Kansas  Thursday night into Friday and then moving east Friday night into Saturday. EFI highlights extreme events and does a pretty good job at doing it. It nailed both December 10th and 15th last year and a lot of people using it then knew to expect something highly unusual. The shaded region is the percentage of ensembles showing something unusual. From the 0.5-0.7 range you're looking at a potentially unusual event. From 0.8 and higher you're looking at a highly unusual event. The contours are called Shift of Tails. These mean that at least 10% of the ECMFW ensembles are showing an extreme event. The higher the number the more extreme. I haven't personally seen this get above 2 or 3. 1 is already pretty high especially 4 to 5 days out. Typically this far out a 0.6 - 0.7 or higher EFI is a pretty strong signal so definitely impressive. 

 

 

 

This is what EFI had at this time period for the rain last week. It actually did a pretty good job with the 0.5 area but did underestimate Missouri until the next 12z run. 

 

 

Obviously EFI isn't perfect, but there's definitely a pause for concern with this system despite the Euro being the most progressive model. It's been extremely dry, especially in Kansas so I don't think we'll see widespread flooding, but you get 4 to 5 inches of rain in a city like Wichita, OKC, or Tulsa in a short amount of time you'll get flash flooding pretty easily. 

[Ingyball]

Now I've mostly talked about the water side of this system. The Euro does show a legit severe threat in western Kansas (and I'm sure in Oklahoma and Texas too but I didn't look). This is a large area sounding out ahead of the semi-discrete line of storms on the 18z run. 

Pretty dang good for November I would say. EFI is also highlight this. CAPE looks to be unusual in the Panhandles and western Kansas with possibly some extremely unusual CAPE in those areas. The signal is even more impressive for CAPES which adds shear to the mix. Pretty good signal for all hazards like SPC mentioned. Perhaps we'll get an enhanced out of it? 

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

18 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

 

That's a large area of 70+

[ClicheVortex2014]

South-central TX... whew. Will be very curious to see what 12z NAM says.

[ClicheVortex2014]

12z NAM is crazy for Saturday but don't forget it is the hour 84 NAM.

West of Dallas

I will say, though, that central-ish Texas looks like the bullseye for potential.

I'm not so sure about that nearly fully saturated moist layer though. That's pretty crazy and definitely feels like a NAM thing to do.

 

Southern Oklahoma gets an honorable mention for these hodographs. Should be a low-topped squall there.

Edited November 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

The GFS is moving this system too fast for my area to even get ANY rainfall potential!

Edited November 1, 2022 by Iceresistance
Typo

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

The GFS is moving this system too fast for my area to even get ANY rainfall potential!

NWS-WPC expects 2.0" of precipitation for Oklahoma City within the next week.  Usually some of these frontal rainstorms pop up in September and October in the Plains and are a welcome break from the summer dryness. And now it's November and there's a major drought.

[ClicheVortex2014]

NAM continues to look nasty. Particularly west of Dallas.

 

The location of the above sounding

 

It's showing surface wind convergence in the area which could be enough to kick off warm sector convection. 

 

 

[Ingyball]

Weaker and progressive has been the trend for this trough, but I will continue not buying it. The models did this very same thing last week and last week actually had a potent shortwave eject just ahead of the trough, which would aid in a faster motion, but the models were still too fast. As I mentioned before we're likely going to see a bit of a slow down compared to the models due to the energy rounding the base of the trough.

Water vapor has a great look at the trough and the current momentum on the back side of it that will allow to dig. Like the trough last week it's pretty impressive so I don't buy the weaker trough the models are showing right now.  

The 18z GFS was a bit slower so we'll see if that's the beginning of a correction or a fluke. 

 

Precipitation wise I still think the ECMWF and it's ensembles are handling the WAA rain the best. It does appear that WPC is favoring that as well with their day 3 rainfall. Would not be surprised to see some surprise rainfall amounts across Kansas and central Oklahoma Thursday night into Friday. EFI continues to show some real potential for that period as well.