May 29th - June 3rd?, 2022 | Severe Weather

[Ingyball]

Gonna try my hand in making a severe thread. Haven't made one since the absurd Easter 2020 thread IIRC. Anyways the GFS is hinting towards severe weather starting as early as Sunday but perhaps a multi-day event next week with multiple western troughs expected to move through the Plains. The 12z run did kind of back off for Sunday specifically, but GEFS still supports a trough over the Rockies Sunday evening. Additionally we will be moving into phases 2-4 of the MJO as well. Phase 3 and 4 intrigue me the most as the report I shared in the spring thread a while back had those phases favor tornadoes in the Plains in May and June. Of course the PNA will continues to be negative at this time it appears so that favors troughing in the western U.S. The 6z GFS setup was classic for a Kansas tornado event however. Plenty of CAPE and shear with a dryline to focus convection and an upper level jet nosing into the warm sector as well. One more thing to watch is the potential heavy rain for the Central and Southern Plains for this Monday and Tuesday. I've shared before but one of our forecasters at ICT has researched the correlation between above average rainfall leading up to a violent outbreak. Things could get interesting if we see the 6z GFS play out with 200-400% above average rainfall over the previous 7-14 days. Could see some impressive dew points. The images I'll share below are mostly Plains focused, but I through in areas further east since we're still a week out and it will likely move in those directions as the systems progress eastward as well. 

 

The trough is a bit shallower on the 12z GEFS, but still a decent signal for 7 days out.

Nice 300mb jet nosing into central Kansas on the 6z GFS. The same forecast from before also found data that violent outbreaks favor that WSW 300mb flow nosing into the warm sector as opposed to more southwesterly and especially southerly flow. He went back and looked at the May 20th, 2019 bust and not only did the upper level jet not have favorable direction, but it was positioned well west of the the warm sector where supercells were expected to go up, this likely played a key part in keeping the environment capped. 

 

Here's a point in click sounding in north-central Kansas, followed by an areal sounding for north-central and northeast Kansas. All from the 6z GFS. 

 

12z GFS backed off from this as I mentioned before, but with GEFS support and support from teleconnections and the MJO, I think a thread is more than worth entertaining for this period. 

[StormfanaticInd]

4 hours ago, Ingyball said:

Gonna try my hand in making a severe thread. Haven't made one since the absurd Easter 2020 thread IIRC. Anyways the GFS is hinting towards severe weather starting as early as Sunday but perhaps a multi-day event next week with multiple western troughs expected to move through the Plains. The 12z run did kind of back off for Sunday specifically, but GEFS still supports a trough over the Rockies Sunday evening. Additionally we will be moving into phases 2-4 of the MJO as well. Phase 3 and 4 intrigue me the most as the report I shared in the spring thread a while back had those phases favor tornadoes in the Plains in May and June. Of course the PNA will continues to be negative at this time it appears so that favors troughing in the western U.S. The 6z GFS setup was classic for a Kansas tornado event however. Plenty of CAPE and shear with a dryline to focus convection and an upper level jet nosing into the warm sector as well. One more thing to watch is the potential heavy rain for the Central and Southern Plains for this Monday and Tuesday. I've shared before but one of our forecasters at ICT has researched the correlation between above average rainfall leading up to a violent outbreak. Things could get interesting if we see the 6z GFS play out with 200-400% above average rainfall over the previous 7-14 days. Could see some impressive dew points. The images I'll share below are mostly Plains focused, but I through in areas further east since we're still a week out and it will likely move in those directions as the systems progress eastward as well. 

 

The trough is a bit shallower on the 12z GEFS, but still a decent signal for 7 days out.

Nice 300mb jet nosing into central Kansas on the 6z GFS. The same forecast from before also found data that violent outbreaks favor that WSW 300mb flow nosing into the warm sector as opposed to more southwesterly and especially southerly flow. He went back and looked at the May 20th, 2019 bust and not only did the upper level jet not have favorable direction, but it was positioned well west of the the warm sector where supercells were expected to go up, this likely played a key part in keeping the environment capped. 

 

Here's a point in click sounding in north-central Kansas, followed by an areal sounding for north-central and northeast Kansas. All from the 6z GFS. 

 

12z GFS backed off from this as I mentioned before, but with GEFS support and support from teleconnections and the MJO, I think a thread is more than worth entertaining for this period. 

Next week has a lot of potential 

[ClicheVortex2014]

5 hours ago, Ingyball said:

Gonna try my hand in making a severe thread. Haven't made one since the absurd Easter 2020 thread IIRC. Anyways the GFS is hinting towards severe weather starting as early as Sunday but perhaps a multi-day event next week with multiple western troughs expected to move through the Plains. The 12z run did kind of back off for Sunday specifically, but GEFS still supports a trough over the Rockies Sunday evening. Additionally we will be moving into phases 2-4 of the MJO as well. Phase 3 and 4 intrigue me the most as the report I shared in the spring thread a while back had those phases favor tornadoes in the Plains in May and June. Of course the PNA will continues to be negative at this time it appears so that favors troughing in the western U.S. The 6z GFS setup was classic for a Kansas tornado event however. Plenty of CAPE and shear with a dryline to focus convection and an upper level jet nosing into the warm sector as well. One more thing to watch is the potential heavy rain for the Central and Southern Plains for this Monday and Tuesday. I've shared before but one of our forecasters at ICT has researched the correlation between above average rainfall leading up to a violent outbreak. Things could get interesting if we see the 6z GFS play out with 200-400% above average rainfall over the previous 7-14 days. Could see some impressive dew points. The images I'll share below are mostly Plains focused, but I through in areas further east since we're still a week out and it will likely move in those directions as the systems progress eastward as well. 

 

The trough is a bit shallower on the 12z GEFS, but still a decent signal for 7 days out.

Nice 300mb jet nosing into central Kansas on the 6z GFS. The same forecast from before also found data that violent outbreaks favor that WSW 300mb flow nosing into the warm sector as opposed to more southwesterly and especially southerly flow. He went back and looked at the May 20th, 2019 bust and not only did the upper level jet not have favorable direction, but it was positioned well west of the the warm sector where supercells were expected to go up, this likely played a key part in keeping the environment capped. 

 

Here's a point in click sounding in north-central Kansas, followed by an areal sounding for north-central and northeast Kansas. All from the 6z GFS. 

 

12z GFS backed off from this as I mentioned before, but with GEFS support and support from teleconnections and the MJO, I think a thread is more than worth entertaining for this period. 

Umm excuse me are you really qualified to make a thread here 😂

Yeah, GFS/Euro have been inconsistent with severe potential in this timeframe but I have a really hard time believing that a western trough in late May/early June isn't gonna produce a crazy day or a few. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

This probably won't last long but maybe we can bang out a slight risk on Wednesday

 

 

Not a bad looking 500mb pattern

Edited May 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

This probably won't last long but maybe we can bang out a slight risk on Wednesday

 

 

Not a bad looking 500mb pattern

It will find a way not to happen here in Indy

[StormfanaticInd]

4 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

It will find a way not to happen here in Indy

Indy did have this to say though 

Tuesday night through Thursday...

 

"Active weather is set for this period as the previously mentioned

upper trough deepens further...develops an upper low and pushes from

the Central Plains to the western Great Lakes. This results in SW

flow aloft in place across Central Indiana for this period with

several embedded waves of forcing within the SW flow aloft.

Meanwhile within the lower levels the developing and deepening

associated surface low is expected to push the warm front well north

of Indiana on Wednesday as it tracks through Illinois and Wisconsin

before pushing a cold front across Indiana on Wednesday Night. This

will result Indiana spending Tuesday night and Wednesday in the warm

sector. Forecast soundings at that time reveal favorable conditions

for convection along with favorable shear. Thus will keep rain and

storm chances at that time...and Wednesday afternoon may become our

next severe weather event as storm development will be expected along

and ahead of the cold front within the warm sector."

[ClicheVortex2014]

10 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

It will find a way not to happen here in Indy

To be fair, it might not really happen anywhere in the area. Marginal risk is easily a possibility because this is certainly in the 'NAM being NAM' range. But we are nearing the peak of our severe weather season so it's at least worth watching.

[snowlover2]

0z NAM not backing down.

[StormfanaticInd]

56 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

0z NAM not backing down.

Hmmmmm.....

[ClicheVortex2014]

SPC is going with marginal but they mention a higher magnitude event if shear is stronger than they expect. So that's certainly a nod that NAM isn't being ruled out yet.

   ...Ohio Valley...
   An upper-level low is forecast to move into the central Plains on
   Wednesday as mid-level flow remains from the south-southwest across
   the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Ahead of the system, a moist
   airmass will be advected northward through the Tennessee and Ohio
   Valleys. Moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon
   from western Kentucky northward into southern and central Indiana.
   Thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon along the
   western edge of moderate instability, from far western Kentucky into
   eastern Illinois. Under this scenario, the southern part of a
   cluster of storms would move northeastward across the Ohio Valley
   during the mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z for
   Paducah and Indianapolis have MLCAPE peaking near 2500 J/kg, with
   0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This would support a
   marginal severe threat, with a potential for hail and strong wind
   gusts. The severe-weather threat could be of greater magnitude if
   more deep-layer shear is realized on Wednesday in the Ohio Valley
   than is currently forecast.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Definitely a trend on NAM. Trough has slowed significantly. End result is a much larger, more moist warm sector. This is more in line with GFS.

Edited May 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

52 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Definitely a trend on NAM. Trough has slowed significantly. End result is a much larger, more moist warm sector. This is more in line with GFS.

Looking like a Wednesday/Thursday event now. Maybe even Friday 

[ClicheVortex2014]

4 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Looking like a Wednesday/Thursday event now. Maybe even Friday 

Might not be a high-end event but it should be good for an active period of storms. Subtropical moisture in place, slow-moving system, but marginal shear. 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

14 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Might not be a high-end event but it should be good for an active period of storms. Subtropical moisture in place, slow-moving system, but marginal shear. 

 

Sometimes those are the best ones as far as good thunderstorms 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Now that's some shear

 

Cell in question sticks out pretty well

Edited May 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

2% tornado now includes all of Illinois, Indiana, and western Ohio

..MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST  
  
TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SQUALL LINE, THE AIRMASS  
SHOULD GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS  
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THESE REGIONS BY WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE  
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.  
  
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
MID MS VALLEY AND VICINITY, IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW AND  
MID-LEVEL JET. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE POSING A THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.  
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALSO BE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED ALONG/NEAR THE WARM  
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH  
ANY MARGINAL SUPERCELLS THAT CAN CROSS THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
OH VALLEY. OTHERWISE, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD PEAK  
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE REGIONS, BEFORE GRADUALLY  
DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS NOCTURNAL COOLING OCCURS AND  
INSTABILITY WEAKENS.  

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

I don't know what I'd give but I'd give something to see this. A backdoor cold front severe weather event in the mid-Atlantic, featuring *southwestward moving* storms. If we were to be so lucky and a supercell takes a right turn, it'd move nearly WESTWARD.

[1816]

7 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I don't know what I'd give but I'd give something to see this. A backdoor cold front severe weather event in the mid-Atlantic, featuring *southwestward moving* storms. If we were to be so lucky and a supercell takes a right turn, it'd move nearly WESTWARD.

I'm gonna have to veto this idea homie. I prefer watching this shit from 1000 miles away. 

[NWOhioChaser]

*yawn* 

Still waiting for a slight risk to even favor NW Ohio, let alone a marginal risk. Entering the climatological period where Lake Erie doesn't shunt storms away from us, and we can get some sort of NW flow event. Seems like pur severe season up here gets later and later.  Western Ohio and NW Ohio are two different locations believe it or not. Most of the time, Toledo's location relative to Erie always produces some kind of cap in our atmosphere.  Yeah sure,  a lot of severe storms seem to initiate around Paulding, Findlay, even Bowling Green. But any further borth closer to the MI border, storms have dodged us as of late. 

[NWOhioChaser]

On a side note, SPC upgraded to slight risk west of here. 

Edited May 25, 2022 by NWOhioChaser

[snowlover2]

4 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

On a side note, SPC upgraded to slight risk west of here. 

5% tornado area too.

[Ingyball]

Gonna have to watch the severe event this weekend in the Northern Plains, they should have plenty of moisture to work with with how much rain the Central Plains are getting. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Mother nature finally stopped her marginal risk assault on us for today... barely survived. Got more tomorrow but life must go on. Until it possibly doesn't, tomorrow.

Early next week looks legit.

 

 

Sounding in the SCP maximum. 70+ knots effective shear is trouble any time of year.... but very late May? My only critique here is 0-3km cape. Might not be an issue, but with shear like this, you need a powerful updraft.

 

Slightly further northeast in west-central MN. 0-3km cape is looking better and the cape profile is fatter which would help balance the shear. Lower big-name composite parameters, but I think this would support the most vigorous supercell.

Edited May 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Unsettling to see the 2013 Moore tornado and 2011 Joplin tornado in one analog set. This is for Sunday which is currently a day 4 enhanced. Granted... it's for the Upper Midwest and it looks like the Central Plains will be strongly capped.

That 2008 outbreak was a high risk

Edited May 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

Sunday has good potential