May 7-28, 2022 | Severe Weather/MCS Sequence

[ElectricStorm]

Since the other thread is already at 31 pages and might be over 40 in the next few days and this will be a new system I figured a new thread would work. SPC already highlighting Days 6-7 for Sun-Mon with a 15% area up for each. 

Sun 5/8

Mon 5/9

Looks like some of the same areas may be getting multiple rounds of severe weather this weekend and into next week. There are some model differences as usual at this range but the general consensus seems to point towards a pretty potent and dangerous event. SPC mentioning severe potential is possible/likely next Tuesday as well, but too much uncertainty to put up a 15% area for now. 

Definitely quite the trough moving in

Edited May 28, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Since the other thread is already at 31 pages and might be over 40 in the next few days and this will be a new system I figured a new thread would work. SPC already highlighting Days 6-7 for Sun-Mon with a 15% area up for each. 

Sun 5/8

Mon 5/9

Looks like some of the same areas may be getting multiple rounds of severe weather this weekend and into next week. There are some model differences as usual at this range but the general consensus seems to point towards a pretty potent and dangerous event. SPC mentioning severe potential is possible/likely next Tuesday as well, but too much uncertainty to put up a 15% area for now. 

Definitely quite the trough moving in

Tornado alley finally living up to its name

[StormfanaticInd]

High impact potential for next week imo

[Iceresistance]

On 5/3/2022 at 12:51 PM, StormfanaticInd said:

Tornado alley finally living up to its name

After someone tried to say that it wasn't. That someone spoke too soon!

[StormfanaticInd]

The instability for next week is what you would normally see in June and July. Crazy

 

Flow turns southerly on Sunday and increases through early next week

advecting in a much warmer and humid airmass. Temperatures aloft

dramatically increase to 16 to 20C at 850mb by midweek. With a well

mixed atmosphere, expect very steep low level lapse rates mixing

down the anomalously warm air aloft to the surface. Highs in the 80s

expected Monday through at least midweek. Would not be surprised for

a few sites to reach their first 90 degree day of the year sometime

next week as EC ESAT tables show low to mid level temperatures 2 to

3 standard deviations above normal. With all this in mind, went

above NBM guidance for temperatures next week. On top of the summer-

like heat, oppressive mid-summer like humidity values will surge

northward as moist tropical air flows northward from the Gulf of

Mexico. Dew points could potentially reach the lower 70s at times

next week leading to heat indices well into the 90s.

Edited May 4, 2022 by StormfanaticInd

[Neoncyclone]

So far it looks like Saturday will be heavily capped, good thing too there are some insanely enlarged hodographs.

Sunday is a day to watch though, SE Kansas into NE Oklahoma and parts of Missouri all appear to have no/weak cap

To be fair this is all long-range NAM but it matches pretty well with the GFS, if anything the GFS is more aggressive with moisture.

5800 CAPE

 

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Iceresistance]

The models are starting to trend away from this

[Neoncyclone]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

The models are starting to trend away from this

That's the thing when there's this much instability, it just loads up the next day for a severe weather threat as long as there's an active pattern, and it's super active right now, now for Monday night 

 

GFS says big time moisture

 

[Neoncyclone]

Definitely some breakable caps according to the GFS, will have to see closer to time, relatively low lapse rates could also be a problem in some areas.

Edited May 6, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Neoncyclone]

00z NAM Sunday night in Eastern Kansas

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Ingyball]

I'm looking more towards later next week for the Central Plains. Trough doesn't really start digging until that time frame and stays too far north before that. It will be hard to break the cap without an upper level jet above. I think most of the action will be in the Northern Plains right now. The exception is if convection to the north spits out any southward moving outflow boundaries which could provide the necessary lift for storms in the Central Plains. 

[StormfanaticInd]

5 hours ago, Ingyball said:

I'm looking more towards later next week for the Central Plains. Trough doesn't really start digging until that time frame and stays too far north before that. It will be hard to break the cap without an upper level jet above. I think most of the action will be in the Northern Plains right now. The exception is if convection to the north spits out any southward moving outflow boundaries which could provide the necessary lift for storms in the Central Plains. 

With so much instability you never know. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

The retrograding eastern trough really threw a wrench in the potential for this timeframe as well as slightly after it. Even so, looks like there'll be some potentially significant severe weather in the Upper Midwest.

Latest weekly reading has the eastern 3 ENSO regions at or below -1C. We haven't seen this since the last week of DECEMBER. So, much like the "lull" in the third week of April, we can likely expect this to be temporary and we'll see the same pattern come back again later this month. Late May/first half of June should be fire.

[Ingyball]

6 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

With so much instability you never know. 

Still need to have a source of lift, seen it many times where high CAPE days with little capping still don't produce. That's where outflow boundaries become very important. They can be the difference between nothing and a small scale outbreak (see Jarrell/Central Texas outbreak).

[ClicheVortex2014]

3 hours ago, Ingyball said:

Still need to have a source of lift, seen it many times where high CAPE days with little capping still don't produce. That's where outflow boundaries become very important. They can be the difference between nothing and a small scale outbreak (see Jarrell/Central Texas outbreak).

Spring has been uneventful here so bring out outflow boundary/MCV season. I'm ready for it. Almost always good for at least one significant event around here. Granted, this time period won't mean anything around here but it won't be long.

Unfortunately, the season also means highly unpredictable events.

Edited May 7, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

18z NAM has 5600 sbcape/41 knots effective shear for Iowa. Explosive if convection can get going.

[Neoncyclone]

It's a good thing there's no large-scale forcing mechanism this is 00z HRRR 48 hours out in Kansas. Doesn't look like there's an AM storms to create an outflow boundary but it'll be something to watch.

Edited May 7, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[StormfanaticInd]

This is turning into more of an early season heatwave with sneaky potential severe weather 

[ClicheVortex2014]

49 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This is turning into more of an early season heatwave with sneaky potential severe weather 

Would be far more widespread if it weren't for that damn retrograding eastern trough. Wunderground had highs in the upper 80s for me... now down to upper 70s/low 80s. 

Should expect higher-end severe weather potential to return in the last 10 days of May. As you said, we've got sneaky severe weather potential until then. Won't be surprised to see a significant severe weather event in the Upper Midwest because a western trough is still a western trough.

Edited May 7, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Never thought about this until this tweet. As close as Michigan is, they still struggle to grow leaves at this time of year. Not sure if this is in the UP though.

 

[StormfanaticInd]

22 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Would be far more widespread if it weren't for that damn retrograding eastern trough. Wunderground had highs in the upper 80s for me... now down to upper 70s/low 80s. 

Should expect higher-end severe weather potential to return in the last 10 days of May. As you said, we've got sneaky severe weather potential until then. Won't be surprised to see a significant severe weather event in the Upper Midwest because a western trough is still a western trough.

Yeah that upper low messed up what would have been a classic setup 

[StormfanaticInd]

These dewpoints are very impressive 

[StormfanaticInd]

5 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

These dewpoints are very impressive 

 

KIND

Long Term...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 ...Heat kicks on this week with near record warmth expected... Highlights in extended periods: - Highly amplified ridge arrives Mon. - Anomalously strong thermal ridge brings summer heat north. - Flirting with record highs mid-week Cluster analysis, which utilizes all ensemble forecast platforms, has continued to demonstrate very strong agreement amongst all perturbations that a robust 500mb ridge will arrive during the extended periods. There is some noise amongst membership towards the end of the week, but this is a reflection of how to resolve a mid- latitude synoptic wave that guidance is trying to push east and subsequently push the 500mb ridge east as well. Let`s drill into the overall setup for each day of the extended... Mon/Tue: Say hello to the ridge, as heights aloft will steadily rise. There is some agreement in the low-level pressure gradient that a llvl shortwave displaced across the Dakotas will create a tightening gradient along the lee-side, which should be across the Missouri/Ohio Valley regions Mon. Expecting llvl moisture to be coupled with the southerly flow, as moisture in the sensible layer will be on the rise. But the modest 60 deg Td`s will likely not arrive until Tue midday with a stronger southerly push lifts into the Ohio Valley. 850mb thermal ridge continues to be rather potent for mid-May, as guidance continues to lean towards a warm nose of nearly 18 deg C overhead. The (Ensemble Prediction Systems) EPS platforms all indicate this as a 2 to 3 positive sigma over climate normals. With that being said, expect the surface parcels to easily realize the potential heat and abundant heating that temps should jump into the mid/upr 80s Tue. Wed/Thur/Fri: The middle of the week appears to be the sweetspot with the ridge axis, as EPS has strong agreement. While Tue we may flirt with record maxT, that appears to be more of a favorable item Wed with the ridge axis overhead. Upper 80s to near 90 is favorable, but the challenge may end up being the volume of llvl moisture, as it`s conceivable parcels may require the available radiation. If this ends up being the case, the diurnal curve could be somewhat flattened and thus result in afternoon temps not reaching full potential.

[StormfanaticInd]

5 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

KIND

Long Term...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 ...Heat kicks on this week with near record warmth expected... Highlights in extended periods: - Highly amplified ridge arrives Mon. - Anomalously strong thermal ridge brings summer heat north. - Flirting with record highs mid-week Cluster analysis, which utilizes all ensemble forecast platforms, has continued to demonstrate very strong agreement amongst all perturbations that a robust 500mb ridge will arrive during the extended periods. There is some noise amongst membership towards the end of the week, but this is a reflection of how to resolve a mid- latitude synoptic wave that guidance is trying to push east and subsequently push the 500mb ridge east as well. Let`s drill into the overall setup for each day of the extended... Mon/Tue: Say hello to the ridge, as heights aloft will steadily rise. There is some agreement in the low-level pressure gradient that a llvl shortwave displaced across the Dakotas will create a tightening gradient along the lee-side, which should be across the Missouri/Ohio Valley regions Mon. Expecting llvl moisture to be coupled with the southerly flow, as moisture in the sensible layer will be on the rise. But the modest 60 deg Td`s will likely not arrive until Tue midday with a stronger southerly push lifts into the Ohio Valley. 850mb thermal ridge continues to be rather potent for mid-May, as guidance continues to lean towards a warm nose of nearly 18 deg C overhead. The (Ensemble Prediction Systems) EPS platforms all indicate this as a 2 to 3 positive sigma over climate normals. With that being said, expect the surface parcels to easily realize the potential heat and abundant heating that temps should jump into the mid/upr 80s Tue. Wed/Thur/Fri: The middle of the week appears to be the sweetspot with the ridge axis, as EPS has strong agreement. While Tue we may flirt with record maxT, that appears to be more of a favorable item Wed with the ridge axis overhead. Upper 80s to near 90 is favorable, but the challenge may end up being the volume of llvl moisture, as it`s conceivable parcels may require the available radiation. If this ends up being the case, the diurnal curve could be somewhat flattened and thus result in afternoon temps not reaching full potential.

 

National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL

Main forecast concern for the long term period is the quick transition to summertime weather with increasing heat and humidity across the area. There will also be periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly in eastern Iowa, but these chances increase areawide as we head later into the week. Pronounced omega block is poised to develop across the CONUS this week, with ridging setting up from the southern Plains into the eastern Great Lakes, and two closed lows centered in the Pacific northwest and off the coast of the southeast U.S.. The building heights combined with strengthening southerly flow will send an anomalously warm and humid air mass into the Midwest mid-week, with temperatures soaring to values around 20-25 degrees above where they should be for early to mid May (highs in the upper 60s/low 70s, lows in the 40s/low 50s). Highs in the upper 80s/low 90s will be common areawide from Tuesday through Thursday, and could be very close to records in some places. See climate section below. Along with that heat will come several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Our CWA will be on the dividing line between the 500 hPa shortwave track, which will be centered from the central Plains in the the upper Mississippi River Valley, and strong capping from the ridging just to the southeast. Chances are in place each day next week primarily for east central Iowa and far northwest Illinois, which will be nearer to the shortwave track. With the warm air in place, plentiful moisture and ample vertical shear, potential is there for some storms to become severe. The Storm Prediction Center currently has potions of eastern Iowa in a Level 1 (marginal) risk for severe thunderstorms Monday evening, as an approaching shortwave interacts with the warm, humid air mass. Additional chances are likely through the week, and are likely to vary in placement depending on positioning of the cap and how much the blocking pattern breaks down late in the period.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Watch coming for north-central NE/central SD. Hodographs in the area favor well-organized supercells that could be long-lived. Strong deep-layer shear.

Edited May 7, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014