April 27-May 6, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak Sequence

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like we may have another system coming through to close out the month. It's not looking like anything impressive right now, but since both GFS and Euro are showing this potential, as well as SPC starting to mention it, I think its a good time to start a new thread for it, despite it being a ways out. 

GFS is showing a meh looking trough moving through the plains next Friday (4/29):

Has some decent moisture return, but it could be better, especially for late April: 

Euro has what looks like some sort of cutoff low moving through the northern plains a day later than the GFS (Sat 4/30): 

This is a long ways out so this will change, but we will probably see some sort of severe weather potential during the later parts of the week and into the weekend. Lots of things to sort out between now and then of course but this will be something to watch. 

Edited May 3, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[Iceresistance]

The GEFS already has a Mean Supercell Composite of a 7 in Central Oklahoma for April 29th, but I'm going to leave for Florida on April 29th. (First stop is Fulton, MS)

Edited April 24, 2022 by Iceresistance

[Iceresistance]

6 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

The GEFS already has a Mean Supercell Composite of a 7 in Central Oklahoma for April 29th, but I'm going to leave for Florida on April 29th. (First stop is Fulton, MS)

Now up to 9, 4/29 has some high potential, but it appears there is a strong cap problem.

[StormfanaticInd]

Another week Another potential servere weather event. Got to love this time of year. Lol

[ElectricStorm]

Oh my goodness put this CIPS analog run in the hall of fame. Not gonna happen but wow what a list. For 4/29:

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=GP&fhr=F132&rundt=2022042412&map=thbSVR

Edited April 25, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[ClicheVortex2014]

This setup impresses me more than the previous. Low-level moisture is better despite still having a strong low, and the cap looks breakable at least in Kansas and Nebraska. Not the sexiest looking trough but you don't need that to have a big event. And we're getting to the time of year where you're not gonna get a crazy looking trough. All you need is enough shear for supercells... you don't need a crazy 80+ knot jet streak with a negative tilt anymore. That would help but you don't need it.

Edited April 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

This setup impresses me more than the previous. Low-level moisture is better despite still having a strong low, and the cap looks breakable at least in Kansas and Nebraska. Not the sexiest looking trough but you don't need that to have a big event. And we're getting to the time of year where you're not gonna get a crazy looking trough. All you need is enough shear for supercells.

Right. Instability starts to make up for decreasing shear but still strong shear this time of year heading into May

Edited April 24, 2022 by StormfanaticInd

[StormfanaticInd]

Deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest a mid/upper shortwave

   trough will eject eastward from the western U.S. into the Plains on

   Day 6/Fri. Stronger lee cyclogenesis will ensue across the High

   Plains as this occurs. Several days of moist return flow will result

   in adequate boundary-layer moisture across much of the

   southern/central Plains ahead of the ejecting wave. However,

   guidance varies in the timing and location of the upper shortwave.

   The strength of this feature also varies considerably, though most

   guidance suggested low-level flow through at least 700 mb will

   remain muted. Furthermore, capping concerns may persist across

   portions of the region. While some severe potential will likely

   exist across parts of the Plains on Day 6/Fri, greater than average

   uncertainty exists in timing and location and will preclude

   probabilities at this time. 

 

   Severe thunderstorm potential may persist into Day 7/Sat, but given

   forecast uncertainties mentioned in the Day 6/Fri time frame,

   uncertainty remains high through the end of the period and

   predictability is low.

[NebraskaEgg]

Of course this happens the day I leave for five months 🙂

[ClicheVortex2014]

18z GFS on the KS/OK border... whew. -13 LI and 62 knots effective shear would make for some very intense supercells/tornadoes.

[Iceresistance]

19 minutes ago, NebraskaEgg said:

Of course this happens the day I leave for five months 🙂

Also happens to be the day we (My family) leave the house to go to Florida.

 

EDIT: Forgot to mention that I will still be watching the weather in Oklahoma because there's a chance that we must return earlier than planned, the CIPS Analog is suggesting that the Highest instability is in (Of course) Central Oklahoma

Edited April 24, 2022 by Iceresistance

[Iceresistance]

42 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

18z GFS on the KS/OK border... whew. -13 LI and 62 knots effective shear would make for some very intense supercells/tornadoes.

The Hodograph has a critical angle of 88, & the Cap is breakable.

[ElectricStorm]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Also happens to be the day we (My family) leave the house to go to Florida.

 

EDIT: Forgot to mention that I will still be watching the weather in Oklahoma because there's a chance that we must return earlier than planned, the CIPS Analog is suggesting that the Highest instability is in (Of course) Central Oklahoma

Well since y'all won't be around, someone is gonna have to stay behind and take all the storms for themselves. 

Looks like that someone is me 😀

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Well since y'all won't be around, someone is gonna have to stay behind and take all the storms for themselves. 

Looks like that someone is me 😀

I'm still going to watch for anything in Central Oklahoma, my Aunt is living in Ada & will come to the house every once in a few days to check on the mail & cats. (I do have automatic waterers & feeders ready to be in use.)

[Ingyball]

4 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Oh my goodness put this CIPS analogue run in the hall of fame. Not gonna happen but wow what a list. For 4/29:

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=GP&fhr=F132&rundt=2022042412&map=thbSVR

Wow that is impressive lol

[Ingyball]

3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

This setup impresses me more than the previous. Low-level moisture is better despite still having a strong low, and the cap looks breakable at least in Kansas and Nebraska. Not the sexiest looking trough but you don't need that to have a big event. And we're getting to the time of year where you're not gonna get a crazy looking trough. All you need is enough shear for supercells... you don't need a crazy 80+ knot jet streak with a negative tilt anymore. That would help but you don't need it.

This is especially true for the Plains. Doesn't take big shear to make big events here. I suspect it has to do with the EML constantly being a factor. We often get favorable storm mode as a result and on the days the CAP does break the environment is extremely explosive.

[Ingyball]

2 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Well since y'all won't be around, someone is gonna have to stay behind and take all the storms for themselves. 

Looks like that someone is me 😀

I'll be here, I have a 4 days weekend starting Thursday morning. May get out and go spot nearby if given the opportunity. 

[ElectricStorm]

5 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

I'll be here, I have a 4 days weekend starting Thursday morning. May get out and go spot nearby if given the opportunity. 

Well in that case we can split the storms 50/50 😂

[ClicheVortex2014]

21 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

This is especially true for the Plains. Doesn't take big shear to make big events here. I suspect it has to do with the EML constantly being a factor. We often get favorable storm mode as a result and on the days the CAP does break the environment is extremely explosive.

Yeah, and directional shear is almost always favorable in the Plains and you have the the topography-enhanced nocturnal LLJ. The Plains is just built different

Edited April 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a 15% area added on the extended outlook soon, maybe even as early as tomorrow. I can't get too excited about something too far out but if models remain consistent over the next few days it'll start to get a little more concerning. There will probably be some capping concerns like most systems here not including yesterday. Overall this looks like it's got some solid potential, and it'll be interesting to see what happens.

Edited April 25, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[ClicheVortex2014]

Pretty easy to see where the dryline is expected to reign over the next 10 days. The area that got slammed by very large hail on Friday is comfortably behind the dryline. Both models have a very active pattern for the rest of the Plains but there's apparently question as to how far east it'll extend. 

Unfortunately the drought in W TX/W OK/W KS isn't gonna get better any time soon. Running out of time for progress to be made before the region turns even more into a desert.

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

0z CIPS analogs is a lot more tame than 12z but 8 of them still have at least local outbreaks or a swath of reports from a supercell. 12z was wild and given what the trough looked like on that run, I wasn't too surprised to see some of those analogs. 

 

Comparison between GFS and Euro

 

[ElectricStorm]

Beautiful dryline on the 6z GFS, does have some capping concerns though. Looks like it's also trying to set up a dryline for Thursday, and SPC is mentioning some severe potential, but it will probably have a lot more issues than Friday. 

[Iceresistance]

SPC has severe storms on D5/Friday from Southern Nebraska to Texas, along I-135/I-35 from Salina to Wichita to OKC & to DFW.

[ClicheVortex2014]

2 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Beautiful dryline on the 6z GFS, does have some capping concerns though. Looks like it's also trying to set up a dryline for Thursday, and SPC is mentioning some severe potential, but it will probably have a lot more issues than Friday. 

I was about to say the same thing. Holy crap.

Looks like the Kansas portion of the dryline might not have capping issues. Seasonably strong shear and seasonably strong instability (at least lifted index) is a nasty combination.

Edited April 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014