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April 21-23(?), 2022 | Severe Weather


ClicheVortex2014

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Another week, another western trough.

Severe weather may begin a day prior to this image along a dryline.

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South-central KS

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SW of OKC... definitely some capping issues here

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Far greater parameters on Friday but capping is an issue for pretty much all of the Plains except up by the warm front.

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Up in the Siuox Falls area. Weak low-level instability but not bad otherwise.

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More of the same north of Omaha

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Overall, I think the above soundings would support relatively slow moving, cyclic supercells... HP if that's sufficient moisture. 

Gotta watch the trends with this one... a slower solution and/or more amplified would likely mean more moisture which could lead to greater severe chances and possibly a brached cap on a larger scale. Could also mean, however, a stronger inversion due to having more time for the EML to cook. 

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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Haven't had a good look at this but will look at it during free time at work today. Y'all have been ahead of the game, haven't had the chance to make a thread in a while. Though the last severe thread I made was Easter 2020 I think so perhaps that's for the best lol. 

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OAX discussion mentions this:

Quote

.Thursday into the weekend:

The main feature of interest is a significant midlevel trough, which is forecast to move into the Great Plains on Friday or Saturday. The GEFS ensemble mean remains more progressive than the EPS and CMCE in advancing the trough in the northern and central Plains with that scenario suggesting a severe-weather threat developing over the mid-MO Valley on Friday evening. In contrast, the EPS and CMCE depict a slower, but deeper trough with some severe-storm risk ahead of the surface cold front on Saturday. Regardless of system timing, it does appear that we will have a good chance at receiving beneficial rainfall.

 

Current models do seem to put them again to the north of me, guess we'll have to see if that sticks. Who knows, as the time gets closer it may actually end up outside of Nebraska!

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4 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Not excited about this right now, will probably have similar issues here like 4/12. Just gotta wait and see. Hopefully we can get something this time though 

There are multiple opportunities with this setup this time around. With April 22nd being the biggest, the GEFS already has a Mean SCP over 10 in Kansas. And 4/12 did not feature that 5 days out.

It has also shifted west, which is unusual for setups like this since they usually trend east.

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12 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

There are multiple opportunities with this setup this time around. With April 22nd being the biggest, the GEFS already has a Mean SCP over 10 in Kansas. And 4/12 did not feature that 5 days out.

It has also shifted west, which is unusual for setups like this since they usually trend east.

I just don't trust anything more than a few days out at most. And most systems generally trend west as we get closer to the event, but every so often they will end up being more east like 4/13

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20 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

There are multiple opportunities with this setup this time around. With April 22nd being the biggest, the GEFS already has a Mean SCP over 10 in Kansas. And 4/12 did not feature that 5 days out.

It has also shifted west, which is unusual for setups like this since they usually trend east.

Likely capped for Kansas and Oklahoma though

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Just now, OKwx_2001 said:

I just don't trust anything more than a few days out at most. And most systems generally trend west as we get closer to the event, but every so often they will end up being more east like 4/13

The only exception to that rule is if the models become extremely consistent with location & severity of the storms, which has not happened in a while.

It could be that the models are shaking out the variables for this system, which has yet to make landfall in the Pacific NW.

776603103_Screenshot2022-04-1710_01_41PM.png.0470ac21674196103aa036e907f3a6b0.png

 

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Almost the entire warm sector is capped except for Nebraska. There's very strong mixing so low-level moisture is pretty damn weak. Should be good for a wind-driven hail squall Nebraska.

 

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Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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GFS is probably a bit too progressive but we'll see if the Euro is correct with the timing. The #1 difference between what the Euro is showing and what happened last week is that in this case you have a nearly horizontal jet streak right over your threat area in Kansas, not only does that favor the cap breaking, but one of the mets in my office has been doing research in how that orientation intersecting the warm sector favors an outbreak. Add to that multiple days of return flow (there is a front on Wednesday but it doesn't clear the coast and any north trends with that will only allow more moisture to return) and this has real potential imo. Last week was always going to be an isolated conditional day, this will be different if the Euro right. It's not common for the Euro to throw out PDS soundings too, it's usually more conservative than the GFS. Would like to see winds at the surface backed more, but it's not a bad sounding for Euro standards. 

 ecmwf_full_2022041800_144_38.4--96.4.thumb.png.137144c92f2e3705727517e5ff1b73e5.png

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OAX discussion

Quote

Attention then turns to a strong upper level trough and surface low approaching/impacting the area Friday. The overall setup looks somewhat similar to last Tuesday`s severe weather event, albeit a slightly different low track (more through the western half of Nebraska). Expect ongoing precip Friday morning near the warm front to play a role in frontal placement as well as degree of capping in place over the forecast area. With these details still up in the air, confidence is lower on how things will pan out, as some guidance suggests potential for storms to go up in a broad warm sector in the afternoon, while other guidance holds off until a cold front and/or dryline push farther east into Nebraska. Once again much like last week, the strongest deep layer shear looks to be near and north of the warm front and near and west of the dryline/cold front, so there may be some degree of lack of organization with any storms that do fire outside of these areas. However, with large, looping hodographs in the 0-3 km layer and most guidance suggesting 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE, would expect potential for all severe hazards assuming storms do fire. But again, still lots of details to be worked out. The good news is that 18.12Z ensemble guidance is in much better agreement in timing and placement of the surface low than the 18.00Z runs, though still some slight differences with the EPS mean being ever so slightly slower than the the GEFS mean.

Aside from the severe weather threat, given the strength of the system would expect another quite windy day Friday with strong warm air advection helping us to get into the 80s in many locations, though lingering morning precip will certainly be something to watch. May see additional storms into Saturday as the cold front takes its time sliding through the area. Instability should be quite limited with most guidance suggesting off and on showers and storms through the morning, though can`t completely rule out a stronger storms or 2 given strong shear expected to be in place. Otherwise, Saturday could be pretty mild, pending extent of precip, with guidance still suggesting 70s in many locations. We`ll be cooler Sunday and into early next week behind the front, with highs in the upper 50s and 60s.

 

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Will be interesting to see what 12z NAM says. Crazy favorable upper level pattern but low-level moisture really kills a lot of the potential.

Loop of comparing GFS/NAM/Euro. I added 700mb temps in there to try to gauge the 'strength' of the EML. NAM is the weakest/coolest in the central Plains at Friday 12z by a few degrees. Might just be the long-range NAM doing its own thing.

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Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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Wednesday could be a sneaky day. Still not sold on Friday. Models have trended slower today and the best forcing will still be well off to the west. I'm liking Saturday more, better forcing, parameters still look pretty good, lower dew point depression so lower LCLs the question then will be how quickly things go linear, but I'll just take rain and storms at this point. 

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Upgraded to slight risk here for Wednesday maybe this will be the one where it finally comes in clutch.

Keeping an eye on Saturday but I may be too far south to get anything good, but at least our rain chances are solid 

Edited by OKwx_2001
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