Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 17, 2022 (edited) Another week, another western trough. Severe weather may begin a day prior to this image along a dryline. South-central KS SW of OKC... definitely some capping issues here Far greater parameters on Friday but capping is an issue for pretty much all of the Plains except up by the warm front. Up in the Siuox Falls area. Weak low-level instability but not bad otherwise. More of the same north of Omaha Overall, I think the above soundings would support relatively slow moving, cyclic supercells... HP if that's sufficient moisture. Gotta watch the trends with this one... a slower solution and/or more amplified would likely mean more moisture which could lead to greater severe chances and possibly a brached cap on a larger scale. Could also mean, however, a stronger inversion due to having more time for the EML to cook. Edited April 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 17, 2022 WPC has some nice synoptic maps for this potential event 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 (edited) The 12z GEFS looks really interesting with the Supercell Composite April 20th April 21st And April 22nd, and it has the highest potential Edited April 17, 2022 by Iceresistance Forgot to add Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 17, 2022 Haven't had a good look at this but will look at it during free time at work today. Y'all have been ahead of the game, haven't had the chance to make a thread in a while. Though the last severe thread I made was Easter 2020 I think so perhaps that's for the best lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 17, 2022 whew NE/IA/MN/SD quad-state area Just west of Omaha Capping issues elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NebraskaEgg Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 OAX discussion mentions this: Quote .Thursday into the weekend: The main feature of interest is a significant midlevel trough, which is forecast to move into the Great Plains on Friday or Saturday. The GEFS ensemble mean remains more progressive than the EPS and CMCE in advancing the trough in the northern and central Plains with that scenario suggesting a severe-weather threat developing over the mid-MO Valley on Friday evening. In contrast, the EPS and CMCE depict a slower, but deeper trough with some severe-storm risk ahead of the surface cold front on Saturday. Regardless of system timing, it does appear that we will have a good chance at receiving beneficial rainfall. Current models do seem to put them again to the north of me, guess we'll have to see if that sticks. Who knows, as the time gets closer it may actually end up outside of Nebraska! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 First SREF run shows April 20th with a 5% STP in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Not excited about this right now, will probably have similar issues here like 4/12. Just gotta wait and see. Hopefully we can get something this time though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Not excited about this right now, will probably have similar issues here like 4/12. Just gotta wait and see. Hopefully we can get something this time though There are multiple opportunities with this setup this time around. With April 22nd being the biggest, the GEFS already has a Mean SCP over 10 in Kansas. And 4/12 did not feature that 5 days out. It has also shifted west, which is unusual for setups like this since they usually trend east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: There are multiple opportunities with this setup this time around. With April 22nd being the biggest, the GEFS already has a Mean SCP over 10 in Kansas. And 4/12 did not feature that 5 days out. It has also shifted west, which is unusual for setups like this since they usually trend east. I just don't trust anything more than a few days out at most. And most systems generally trend west as we get closer to the event, but every so often they will end up being more east like 4/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 18, 2022 20 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: There are multiple opportunities with this setup this time around. With April 22nd being the biggest, the GEFS already has a Mean SCP over 10 in Kansas. And 4/12 did not feature that 5 days out. It has also shifted west, which is unusual for setups like this since they usually trend east. Likely capped for Kansas and Oklahoma though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Just now, OKwx_2001 said: I just don't trust anything more than a few days out at most. And most systems generally trend west as we get closer to the event, but every so often they will end up being more east like 4/13 The only exception to that rule is if the models become extremely consistent with location & severity of the storms, which has not happened in a while. It could be that the models are shaking out the variables for this system, which has yet to make landfall in the Pacific NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 18, 2022 (edited) Almost the entire warm sector is capped except for Nebraska. There's very strong mixing so low-level moisture is pretty damn weak. Should be good for a wind-driven hail squall Nebraska. Edited April 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 18, 2022 (edited) Fun wind profile for SE ND on the 12z Euro. Storms would probably move, like, north or something, I guess. Edited April 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 18, 2022 GFS is probably a bit too progressive but we'll see if the Euro is correct with the timing. The #1 difference between what the Euro is showing and what happened last week is that in this case you have a nearly horizontal jet streak right over your threat area in Kansas, not only does that favor the cap breaking, but one of the mets in my office has been doing research in how that orientation intersecting the warm sector favors an outbreak. Add to that multiple days of return flow (there is a front on Wednesday but it doesn't clear the coast and any north trends with that will only allow more moisture to return) and this has real potential imo. Last week was always going to be an isolated conditional day, this will be different if the Euro right. It's not common for the Euro to throw out PDS soundings too, it's usually more conservative than the GFS. Would like to see winds at the surface backed more, but it's not a bad sounding for Euro standards. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 18, 2022 This is what I'm referring to on the Euro Compare that to this last week where it was more meridional and away from where the threat area ended up being. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Getting into the time of year where you have to start watching these warm fronts around the OV 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Wednesday needs to be more watched, even though the SPC has a Marginal Risk, CAPE is trending higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 12z NAM really thinks that the Cap is very breakable on Wednesday 12z HRRR has storms on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NebraskaEgg Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 OAX discussion Quote Attention then turns to a strong upper level trough and surface low approaching/impacting the area Friday. The overall setup looks somewhat similar to last Tuesday`s severe weather event, albeit a slightly different low track (more through the western half of Nebraska). Expect ongoing precip Friday morning near the warm front to play a role in frontal placement as well as degree of capping in place over the forecast area. With these details still up in the air, confidence is lower on how things will pan out, as some guidance suggests potential for storms to go up in a broad warm sector in the afternoon, while other guidance holds off until a cold front and/or dryline push farther east into Nebraska. Once again much like last week, the strongest deep layer shear looks to be near and north of the warm front and near and west of the dryline/cold front, so there may be some degree of lack of organization with any storms that do fire outside of these areas. However, with large, looping hodographs in the 0-3 km layer and most guidance suggesting 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE, would expect potential for all severe hazards assuming storms do fire. But again, still lots of details to be worked out. The good news is that 18.12Z ensemble guidance is in much better agreement in timing and placement of the surface low than the 18.00Z runs, though still some slight differences with the EPS mean being ever so slightly slower than the the GEFS mean. Aside from the severe weather threat, given the strength of the system would expect another quite windy day Friday with strong warm air advection helping us to get into the 80s in many locations, though lingering morning precip will certainly be something to watch. May see additional storms into Saturday as the cold front takes its time sliding through the area. Instability should be quite limited with most guidance suggesting off and on showers and storms through the morning, though can`t completely rule out a stronger storms or 2 given strong shear expected to be in place. Otherwise, Saturday could be pretty mild, pending extent of precip, with guidance still suggesting 70s in many locations. We`ll be cooler Sunday and into early next week behind the front, with highs in the upper 50s and 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 19, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 19, 2022 (edited) Will be interesting to see what 12z NAM says. Crazy favorable upper level pattern but low-level moisture really kills a lot of the potential. Loop of comparing GFS/NAM/Euro. I added 700mb temps in there to try to gauge the 'strength' of the EML. NAM is the weakest/coolest in the central Plains at Friday 12z by a few degrees. Might just be the long-range NAM doing its own thing. Edited April 19, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 19, 2022 Wednesday could be a sneaky day. Still not sold on Friday. Models have trended slower today and the best forcing will still be well off to the west. I'm liking Saturday more, better forcing, parameters still look pretty good, lower dew point depression so lower LCLs the question then will be how quickly things go linear, but I'll just take rain and storms at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 (edited) Upgraded to slight risk here for Wednesday maybe this will be the one where it finally comes in clutch. Keeping an eye on Saturday but I may be too far south to get anything good, but at least our rain chances are solid Edited April 19, 2022 by OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 I see you (Wednesday's event) It's up to 72 DBz, does not happen very often from a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 HRRR has a nice round of rain/storms moving through here this afternoon/evening. Shouldn't be severe by any means but it'll be nice to finally get a storm again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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