March 29-31, 2022 | Severe Weather, a second outbreak with more than 70 Tornadoes confirmed

[Iceresistance]

Several Models are consistent with a storm system with the possibility of severe storms, SPC has taken note of that as well, but the predictability is currently too low for now. Before that is a Mini-Heatwave with Highs in the Mid to Upper 80s across Oklahoma & Upper 80s to Near 90 in across most of Texas, with Dew Points reaching the 60s in the Southern Plains.

SPC: 

The divergence in solutions manifests initially during Day 5/Sunday
   -- initially over the West Coast with progression of an eastern
   Pacific low/trough.  The divergence then increases/expands with
   time, to the point where by the end of day 7, the GFS depicts a
   mature surface cyclone entering western Ohio and a trailing cold
   front across the Mid South/central Gulf Coast region, while the
   ECMWF places the low -- though similarly mature -- over western
   Oklahoma.

   Given this unusually large spread in solutions, which is
   particularly highlighted in the increase evident in
   standard-deviation fields within GEFS output through time, during
   the medium-range period, no severe weather assessment is being
   offered beyond Day 5/Sunday at this time.

Note that this is several days out, this will change as it gets closer

[Iceresistance]

This is concerning from Mike Ventrice
 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

GFS develops a MCS that rides along the Gulf coast which really messes with moisture return into the US. That's a big deal with the speed of this system because if the MCS has any kind of northerly motion, it's going to allow at least some meaningful moisture into the US.

Edited March 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

0z GFS sounding won't load for this area on this run but the sbcape/hodograph map is almost as good

0z GFS is showing significant potential for the same area that was threatened on Tuesday

 

Pretty decent signal from CIPS analogs

Edited March 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

0z GFS sounding won't load for this area on this run but the sbcape/hodograph map is almost as good

0z GFS is showing significant potential for the same area that was threatened on Tuesday

 

Pretty decent signal from CIPS analogs

I think the threat next week will be over a larger area

[StormfanaticInd]

2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I think the threat next week will be over a larger area

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance has come into better agreement with the evolution of an upper low expected to begin the period centered off the central CA Coast. Expectation is for this low to progress eastward/southeastward across southern CA on D4/Monday before devolving into an open wave as it moves across the Southeast and into the southern Plains on D5/Tuesday. The system is then forecast to pivot towards a more neutral tilt late D5/Tuesday and to a negative tilt as it moves through the southern Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley on D6/Wednesday. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, stretching from northern Mexico across much of the southern Plains on D5/Tuesday and across the Mid/Lower MS Valley into the TN and OH Valley and Southeast on D6/Wednesday. Low-level moisture advection will precede this shortwave, with 60s dewpoints likely reaching the OK/KS border vicinity on D4/Tuesday and mid 60s dewpoints likely in place across the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South on D5/Wednesday. The combination of buoyancy and lift is expected to result in thunderstorm development. Additionally, the moderate southerly low-level flow beneath the strong mid-level southwesterly flow result in supercell wind profiles both on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Greatest severe potential on D5/Tuesday currently appears to be from northwest TX across western/central OK into central/eastern KS. Greatest severe potential on D6/Wednesday is from the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley. Guidance currently suggests the low- and mid-level winds will strengthen on D6/Wednesday, resulting in very impressive wind profiles. This strengthening of the flow, coupled with the negatively tilted character to the shortwave and ample low-level moisture, suggests the potential for numerous severe storms exists. As a result, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if the current trends within the guidance persist. Some severe potential could extend in the East Coast, particularly the Carolinas, on D7/Thursday, but displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent and questions about buoyancy currently limit predictability.

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance has come into better agreement with the evolution of an upper low expected to begin the period centered off the central CA Coast. Expectation is for this low to progress eastward/southeastward across southern CA on D4/Monday before devolving into an open wave as it moves across the Southeast and into the southern Plains on D5/Tuesday. The system is then forecast to pivot towards a more neutral tilt late D5/Tuesday and to a negative tilt as it moves through the southern Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley on D6/Wednesday. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, stretching from northern Mexico across much of the southern Plains on D5/Tuesday and across the Mid/Lower MS Valley into the TN and OH Valley and Southeast on D6/Wednesday. Low-level moisture advection will precede this shortwave, with 60s dewpoints likely reaching the OK/KS border vicinity on D4/Tuesday and mid 60s dewpoints likely in place across the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South on D5/Wednesday. The combination of buoyancy and lift is expected to result in thunderstorm development. Additionally, the moderate southerly low-level flow beneath the strong mid-level southwesterly flow result in supercell wind profiles both on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Greatest severe potential on D5/Tuesday currently appears to be from northwest TX across western/central OK into central/eastern KS. Greatest severe potential on D6/Wednesday is from the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley. Guidance currently suggests the low- and mid-level winds will strengthen on D6/Wednesday, resulting in very impressive wind profiles. This strengthening of the flow, coupled with the negatively tilted character to the shortwave and ample low-level moisture, suggests the potential for numerous severe storms exists. As a result, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if the current trends within the guidance persist. Some severe potential could extend in the East Coast, particularly the Carolinas, on D7/Thursday, but displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent and questions about buoyancy currently limit predictability.

 

[Iceresistance]

Here it is

[ElectricStorm]

Obviously I'm more interested in Tuesday since that involves my area but Wed has some serious potential. SPC already talking about a potential upgrade. Climo favors that area a lot more than the plains this time of year although that will start changing here in a few weeks. Plains are definitely off to a fast start this year though. 

[Iceresistance]

37 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Obviously I'm more interested in Tuesday since that involves my area but Wed has some serious potential. SPC already talking about a potential upgrade. Climo favors that area a lot more than the plains this time of year although that will start changing here in a few weeks. Plains are definitely off to a fast start this year though. 

 

Low-level moisture advection will precede this shortwave, with 60s
   dewpoints likely reaching the OK/KS border vicinity on D4/Tuesday
   and mid 60s dewpoints likely in place across the Lower MS
   Valley/Mid-South on D5/Wednesday. The combination of buoyancy and
   lift is expected to result in thunderstorm development.
   Additionally, the moderate southerly low-level flow beneath the
   strong mid-level southwesterly flow result in supercell wind
   profiles both on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Greatest severe
   potential on D5/Tuesday currently appears to be from northwest TX
   across western/central OK into central/eastern KS. Greatest severe
   potential on D6/Wednesday is from the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South
   into the Lower OH Valley. 

   Guidance currently suggests the low- and mid-level winds will
   strengthen on D6/Wednesday, resulting in very impressive wind
   profiles. This strengthening of the flow, coupled with the
   negatively tilted character to the shortwave and ample low-level
   moisture, suggests the potential for numerous severe storms exists.
   As a result, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later
   outlooks if the current trends within the guidance persist. 

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by Iceresistance

[Ingyball]

2 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Obviously I'm more interested in Tuesday since that involves my area but Wed has some serious potential. SPC already talking about a potential upgrade. Climo favors that area a lot more than the plains this time of year although that will start changing here in a few weeks. Plains are definitely off to a fast start this year though. 

If we can keep this rainy pattern and a favorable MJO, I'm optimistic this year. 

[ElectricStorm]

20 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

If we can keep this rainy pattern and a favorable MJO, I'm optimistic this year. 

Yeah it's been a while since I've been this optimistic this early in the year. Even 2019 started off pretty slowly. Definitely the potential for an active year for us. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

yikes

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

7 of the 15 analogs based on GFS have an outbreak

 

[Ingyball]

11 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

7 of the 15 analogs based on GFS have an outbreak

 

Analogs are pretty impressive for the Plains on Tuesday too.

[ClicheVortex2014]

WPC is showing a 996mb system on Wednesday deepening to 992mb on Thursday. Strength of the system should be good for strong winds for the OV at least based on the PGF and mixing... if not in the form of a strongly forced line of showers/isolated thunderstorms.

Moisture and timing looks unfavorable for a more serious/widespread threat for the OV. Our time will come.

Edited March 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

JAN mentions that strong mixing/high LCLs could limit the tornado threat. 

Monday through Thursday night: the upper level pattern will
become progressive early next week with a strong shortwave ridge
crossing the forecast area Monday and Tuesday. The result will be
warmer temperatures and increasing southerly flow ahead of an
approaching and equally strong shortwave trough. Significant
pressure falls associated with a strengthening cyclone over the
central CONUS will result in increasingly windy conditions going
from Tuesday into Wednesday, and global models have come into good
agreement for timing of a convective system crossing the area in
the Wednesday to Wednesday night time frame. At least at this
time, the greatest confidence is for it to impact the forecast
area from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Strong
wind shear and moderate levels of instability should support
organized severe weather and damaging wind potential, but the
tornado potential could have some question marks given expected
strong mixing and relatively high lcl heights.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

I do see what JAN is saying. LCL is still pretty favorable but probably higher than what they're used to in the South. But MLCAPE is pretty weak which could be a bigger problem than LCL. If NAM also shares this problem then I'll take it more serious but this might just be the GFS reverting to some of its old ways.

Otherwise... very Dixie Alley-esque hodograph.

Edited March 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

Interesting...

[StormfanaticInd]

 

Anytime you have a low this deep in the spring with this much wind energy you need to pay attention imo

Edit. If this verifies 

Edited March 26, 2022 by StormfanaticInd

[ClicheVortex2014]

21 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

Anytime you have a low this deep in the spring with this much wind energy you need to pay attention imo

Edit. If this verifies 

As far as a higher-end tornado threat, strong low pressures like this encourage strong forcing along the cold front and therefore a squall along the front. That said, it's bound to happen anyway given the 0-6km shear vector with respect to the front. Question becomes what happens in the warm sector. 

But yeah, a 981mb low is gonna produce widespread strong winds just from the strength of the system. Probably gonna be a 'surprise' severe weather cluster somewhere in the Midwest. Can't underestimate a negative tilt

Edited March 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

From KIND

"There is also a chance for stronger to potentially severe storms late Wednesday to Wednesday night as winds strengthen and the associated cold front swings through the Mississippi Valley. Better conditions for stronger storms are more likely to occur further SE but depending on how the low ends up tracking, enough instability, winds, and deep moisture could get into central Indiana so will have to monitor this system over the coming days. It is still too soon to determine any details at this time."

[StormfanaticInd]

😱

[Iceresistance]

18 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

😱

I don't see any indications of a Hook over Indy anymore, it's still Severe though

[StormfanaticInd]

Got pretty crazy with the winds. Easily pushing 60mph