Admin MaineJay Posted March 7, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 7, 2022 Splitting this discussion from the 12-13 potential. Ecmwf NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 12 Gfs is North, 12z top vs 6z bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Can't believe I'm saying this may be 1st time ever, but CMC is leading on this one... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 6z Euro control is def North as well. Would be so happy woth a 3-4/5" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Euro 6z Ens mean: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 2 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Euro 6z Ens mean: Crazy, everything coming into line on the 12z suite. Widespread 1-4" with maybe a surprise here and there. Who would've thunk it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Strong EPS signal and now SREF up to 60pops. Highest yet for interior PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinmama08 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 3 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Euro 6z Ens mean: Verbatim, this would be my largest single event of the season! 🙂. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 7, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) SREFs trolling me Nice that Pivotal has this now. Edited March 7, 2022 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 8, 2022 Not cool I was just starting to get used to these 60's and 70's. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 21z SREf increasing Sn pop to near 70 for interior PA now. Mean snow holding around 2", most members clustered 1-3". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 8, 2022 I will say I do like how we can finally get the cold ahead of an incoming storm but its march like wth. Couldn't this have happened last month. Nam doing a solid 1-3" event for my area with the GFS about the same little less but thermal profiles are always a toss on the GFS. Euro has a really solid precip shield forecasted. If we do actually have that intensity of precip it will fall as a heavy wet snow with this fresh cold injection. Definitely will be borderline along 95 but just NW in the usual cooler locations expect some accums to occur. Not sure we get much on the roads since we will be heading into dayside for this but still not a bad little event. Look to add to our foot totals this year lol. 1-3" seems the most reasonable at this point some elevation locations may fall in the 3-5" category depending on exactly where that heavy band sets up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 0z NAM is a good hit. 10:1 ratios, might be high end potential given daytime snow in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 3k NAM similar. Looking like a snowy day on tap Wednesday, despite locals trying to ignore and downplay this all day. But, still plenty of time to "fail", soooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 HRRR has a slightly more north bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Heck, let's round it off with a few more short range 0z depictions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 8, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2022 Nam making this a decent snow event for NYC metro, lasting from dawn until evening Expected the shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 8, 2022 Surface temps look to be abysmal through this event most will wetbulb around 32-34 NW of 95 while along 95 probably 35-37. Yes it can still snow at 35-37 ( i have seen it snow while at 42 but that was a very random situation) just really going to have a hard time sticking to roads. Grass, trees, power lines, concrete surfaces will be the areas to watch for accums. LI and NYC area is usually a funky area for cold being left behind so wouldnt surprise me to see temps a little cooler there with the thump of precip. Feel we are doing a little windshield wiper situation with snowfall. No body should expect more then 1-2", 3" if you happen to get under a really nice band and potentially as much as 3-5" in elevation. Will make for nice scenery and melt the next day good for ground water! Looks like Lehigh Valley and northern NJ cash in a bit probably best crossover of being the just right amount of cold to help with stickage and closer to better snow rates (better moisture) while most manage about an 1" SE of there. I feel total snow depth may be a better resource to use in March than kuchera. Posted 3km, 12km NAM and GFS (GFS just doing GFS things with its sound proof thermal profiles lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 8, 2022 Just now, so_whats_happening said: Surface temps look to be abysmal through this event most will wetbulb around 32-34 NW of 95 while along 95 probably 35-37. Yes it can still snow at 35-37 ( i have seen it snow while at 42 but that was a very random situation) just really going to have a hard time sticking to roads. Grass, trees, power lines, concrete surfaces will be the areas to watch for accums. LI and NYC area is usually a funky area for cold being left behind so wouldnt surprise me to see temps a little cooler there with the thump of precip. Feel we are doing a little windshield wiper situation with snowfall. No body should expect more then 1-2", 3" if you happen to get under a really nice band and potentially as much as 3-5" in elevation. Will make for nice scenery and melt the next day good for ground water! Looks like Lehigh Valley and northern NJ cash in a bit probably best crossover of being the just right amount of cold to help with stickage and closer to better snow rates (better moisture) while most manage about an 1" SE of there. I feel total snow depth may be a better resource to use in March than kuchera. Posted 3km, 12km NAM and GFS (GFS just doing GFS things with its sound proof thermal profiles lol) This event kind of reminds me of the last one that rolled through and dropped a quick 2-4" around the superbowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted March 8, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: This event kind of reminds me of the last one that rolled through and dropped a quick 2-4" around the superbowl. Too bad this isn't late Jan. Be a nice little hit. NYC metro needs some pretty good snow rates for midday snows in mid March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMirg Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Quote I feel total snow depth may be a better resource to use in March than kuchera. Undoubtedly. SD maps, generally, more useful than the stupid "snow fall" maps of either type - irrespective of the month. More so in the "marginal months" (Nov and March) though, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Quote Nearly all locations appear likely to see a small accumulation, but confidence in county-wide advisory totals remains low, so will hold off on headlines for now. Best guess of accumulations based on ensemble mean qpf and thermal profiles ranges from 2-3 inches on the ridgetops to less than an inch in the lower elevations of the Lower Susq Valley. Any slushy road surfaces Wed morning should give way to wet roads by afternoon, due to rising temps and increasing March sun angle. AFDCTP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 King CMC had this one days ahead of everyone else lol. As has been said, I'd expect the NAM to get on board and push this north as well. NAM,RDPS,EURO, 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 SREF MEAN pretty nice for a moderate event for N of NYC, NEPA HV, SNE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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