Jump to content

March 9-10, 2022 | Winter Storm


MaineJay

Recommended Posts

  • Meteorologist

I will say I do like how we can finally get the cold ahead of an incoming storm but its march like wth. Couldn't this have happened last month.

 

Nam doing a solid 1-3" event for my area with the GFS about the same little less but thermal profiles are always a toss on the GFS.

Euro has a really solid precip shield forecasted. If we do actually have that intensity of precip it will fall as a heavy wet snow with this fresh cold injection. Definitely will be borderline along 95 but just NW in the usual cooler locations expect some accums to occur. Not sure we get much on the roads since we will be heading into dayside for this but still not a bad little event.

Look to add to our foot totals this year lol. 1-3" seems the most reasonable at this point some elevation locations may fall in the 3-5" category depending on exactly where that heavy band sets up.

dcf055d6-ff7f-4fec-9e7f-1c318f4bf20b.gif

  • THUMBS UP 1
  • LOVE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Meteorologist

Surface temps look to be abysmal through this event most will wetbulb around 32-34 NW of 95 while along 95 probably 35-37. Yes it can still snow at 35-37 ( i have seen it snow while at 42 but that was a very random situation) just really going to have a hard time sticking to roads. Grass, trees, power lines, concrete surfaces will be the areas to watch for accums. LI and NYC area is usually a funky area for cold being left behind so wouldnt surprise me to see temps a little cooler there with the thump of precip.

Feel we are doing a little windshield wiper situation with snowfall. No body should expect more then 1-2", 3" if you happen to get under a really nice band and potentially as much as 3-5" in elevation. Will make for nice scenery and melt the next day good for ground water! Looks like Lehigh Valley and northern NJ cash in a bit probably best crossover of being the just right amount of cold to help with stickage and closer to better snow rates (better moisture) while most manage about an 1" SE of there. 

I feel total snow depth may be a better resource to use in March than kuchera.

Posted 3km, 12km NAM and GFS (GFS just doing GFS things with its sound proof thermal profiles lol)

gfs_asnowd_neus_9.png

nam3km_asnowd_neus_50.png

namconus_asnowd_neus_17.png

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Meteorologist
Just now, so_whats_happening said:

Surface temps look to be abysmal through this event most will wetbulb around 32-34 NW of 95 while along 95 probably 35-37. Yes it can still snow at 35-37 ( i have seen it snow while at 42 but that was a very random situation) just really going to have a hard time sticking to roads. Grass, trees, power lines, concrete surfaces will be the areas to watch for accums. LI and NYC area is usually a funky area for cold being left behind so wouldnt surprise me to see temps a little cooler there with the thump of precip.

Feel we are doing a little windshield wiper situation with snowfall. No body should expect more then 1-2", 3" if you happen to get under a really nice band and potentially as much as 3-5" in elevation. Will make for nice scenery and melt the next day good for ground water! Looks like Lehigh Valley and northern NJ cash in a bit probably best crossover of being the just right amount of cold to help with stickage and closer to better snow rates (better moisture) while most manage about an 1" SE of there. 

I feel total snow depth may be a better resource to use in March than kuchera.

Posted 3km, 12km NAM and GFS (GFS just doing GFS things with its sound proof thermal profiles lol)

gfs_asnowd_neus_9.png

nam3km_asnowd_neus_50.png

namconus_asnowd_neus_17.png

This event kind of reminds me of the last one that rolled through and dropped a quick 2-4" around the superbowl.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Admin
10 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This event kind of reminds me of the last one that rolled through and dropped a quick 2-4" around the superbowl.

Too bad this isn't late Jan. Be a nice little hit. 

NYC metro needs some pretty good snow rates for midday snows in mid March 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

I feel total snow depth may be a better resource to use in March than kuchera.

Undoubtedly. 

 

SD maps, generally, more useful than the stupid "snow fall" maps of either type - irrespective of the month. More so in the "marginal months" (Nov and March) though, of course. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

Nearly all locations appear likely to see a small accumulation, but confidence in county-wide advisory totals remains low, so will hold off on headlines for now. Best guess of accumulations based on ensemble mean qpf and thermal profiles ranges from 2-3 inches on the ridgetops to less than an inch in the lower elevations of the Lower Susq Valley. Any slushy road surfaces Wed morning should give way to wet roads by afternoon, due to rising temps and increasing March sun angle.

AFDCTP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...