March 5-19, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak/Severe Weather Pattern That Won't Quit

[ClicheVortex2014]

Feeling pretty confident about a warm, active weather pattern coming for at least part of the first half of March. Signs are everywhere. The active MJO adds to the predictability.

There's no specific system this thread is for right now... but the overall pattern is favorable for a specific system to come about. Unless the forecast dramatically changes, this'll likely eventually morph into a severe weather thread. For now it's just a thread to discuss the time period.

GEFS mean is showing 1"-1.25" precip above average for the March 6-11 time period for the mid-MS valley/lower OV. That's quite significant, much less coming from an ensemble mean over a week out.

 

Edited March 19, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Icewoz]

Is this thread what GRR is mentioning?

There is a signal for a more significant storm late in the week as the western ridge breaks down and is replaced with troughing. Details on track still to be seen as ensemble spread is considerable.

[Iceresistance]

I could have Severe Weather to start March, some models & some local TV forecasts have taken note of it

[ElectricStorm]

The GFS has been pretty consistent so far on a potential severe weather event during this time period. I keep thinking it's going to drop it like most super long range GFS systems but so far it still shows up on each new run. Still way out there though so it will probably change at some point but it certainly needs to be watched. 

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

The GFS has been pretty consistent so far on a potential severe weather event during this time period. I keep thinking it's going to drop it like most super long range GFS systems but so far it still shows up on each new run. Still way out there though so it will probably change at some point but it certainly needs to be watched. 

The 6z Run has a very unsettled Early March, this could prelude to the Spring Storm season, but that remains to be seen.

[beaver56]

I am definitely up for dry weather and warmth for sure. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

5 hours ago, Icewoz said:

Is this thread what GRR is mentioning?

There is a signal for a more significant storm late in the week as the western ridge breaks down and is replaced with troughing. Details on track still to be seen as ensemble spread is considerable.

Nope this is for the warm side of the storm... i.e., severe weather/flooding

[ClicheVortex2014]

A key for getting severe weather in the cool season is prolonged southerly flow in the GoM. Gotta get as much of that Caribbean moisture into the GoM as you can. 

We have that beginning in just 4-5 days. GFS and Euro agree that it'll be relatively uninterrupted through day 10. All you really need is 3-4 days of advection from the Caribbean.

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

Yep. I really believe this is going to be an active severe weather season. We are overdue 

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Yep. I really believe this is going to be an active severe weather season. We are overdue 

Especially in Oklahoma for the Spring Season, Fall 2021 was Hyperactive in it's own terms.

[ClicheVortex2014]

4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Yep. I really believe this is going to be an active severe weather season. We are overdue 

Surprisingly, the past 2 out of 3 years have had above average end-of-the-year tornado counts. 2020 was only a bit below average. But the nuance here is obviously "severe weather season".... last year was AA because of what happened in December. But yeah, it's been a while since the whole severe weather season has been active.

We have a -PDO and moderate La Nina again this year but the difference is this is a stronger -PDO. Tornado count is already almost 3x last year at this time, and it's not because of a single event. Just a bunch of nickle-and-diming.

Edited February 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[NWOhioChaser]

The mean trough position on the mid to long range models heading into March is just screaming severe weather potential to me. With the SER pushing back more and more as well...could be in for a bumpy start to the season. 

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by NWOhioChaser

[StormfanaticInd]

2 hours ago, NWOhioChaser said:

The mean trough position on the mid to long range models heading into March is just screaming severe weather potential to me. With the SER pushing back more and more as well...could be in for a bumpy start to the season. 

 

Strength of southeast ridge will be key

[ClicheVortex2014]

Another hint of the pattern to come... this mornings observations show an extended Pacific jet. This usually results in a -PNA pattern in the next week or so. Sometimes the -PNA is followed by an Arctic air outbreak in the Midwest... just depends on what happens after the extended Pacific jet retracts.

An Arctic air outbreak in the Midwest isn't hard to imagine given the strong signal for cross-polar flow into Canada and the Northwest. That airmass by itself isn't likely to be too significant for the Midwest if it makes it there... seems the SE ridge might be strong enough to hold it back for a bit... but all it takes is a slight retrogression of the -PNA to flip the pattern and bring the Arctic air east.

But again, this is after the -PNA.

Edited February 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

SPC has mentioned this: 

Quote

ECMWF members suggest that by Friday/D7, a large-scale upper trough will develop over the West, with a leading wave moving into the southern Plains. Given that this would be early in the moisture return cycle, only 50s F dewpoints are expected to spread northward ahead of this wave, resulting in low-end severe potential.

A greater severe risk may develop into the Saturday/D8 to Sunday/D9 period as mid 60s F dewpoints spread north into the Arklatex and lower MS Valley. Predictability is low and will depend on shortwave timing, but some potential may develop given better moisture beneath increasing flow aloft.

 

[Iceresistance]

8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Another hint of the pattern to come... this mornings observations show an extended Pacific jet. This usually results in a -PNA pattern in the next week or so. Sometimes the -PNA is followed by an Arctic air outbreak in the East... just depends on what happens after the extended Pacific jet retracts.

An Arctic air outbreak in the East isn't hard to imagine given the strong signal for cross-polar flow into Canada and the Northwest. That airmass by itself isn't likely to be too significant for the East if it makes it there (seems the SE ridge might be strong enough to hold it back for a bit)... but all it takes is a slight retrogression of the -PNA to flip the pattern and bring the Arctic air east.

But again, this is after the -PNA.

The Jet Stream looks very favorable for Severe Weather from New Mexico to Oklahoma & Missouri to the East Coast, but the likelihood area is in Oklahoma, Texas & parts of Missouri & Louisiana 

[ClicheVortex2014]

GFS appears to be trending toward a deeper western trough later next week

 

What it turns into

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

GFS has a bunch of lower-end severe weather days... basically every day after a point. But a major severe weather event was narrowly missed after a shortwave ejected out from the West and the associated cold front didn't even make it to the Gulf coast. If another shortwave would've ejected behind it, it would've been a big event. Instead, the trough takes a positive tilt and basically stalls.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

GFS has a bunch of lower-end severe weather days... basically every day after a point. But a major severe weather event was narrowly missed after a shortwave ejected out from the West and the associated cold front didn't even make it to the Gulf coast. If another shortwave would've ejected behind it, it would've been a big event. Instead, the trough takes a positive tilt and basically stalls.

 

Severe weather minimized... flooding maximized. Stagnant pattern with an abundance moisture results in widespread flooding for the Ohio/Tennessee/Mississippi valleys.

 

https://i.imgur.com/gP5EBWM.png

Edited February 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Nothing like, not only highlighting a specific day, March 12, literally 2 weeks away, for severe weather using the CFS, but saying it’s EXPECTED. Legendary weenie status

The BREAKING: is icing on the cake

I think he’s claiming it a joke and if that’s true that just makes him unfunny and irresponsible 

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

This time of year, this synoptic pattern would produce severe weather most certainly in TX/OK. Depending on moisture content and lapse rates, a secondary area could be near the low.

Edited February 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

6 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Nothing like, not only highlighting a specific day, March 12, literally 2 weeks away, for severe weather using the CFS, but saying it’s EXPECTED. Legendary weenie status

The BREAKING: is icing on the cake

I think he’s claiming it a joke and if that’s true that just makes him unfunny and irresponsible 

 

This is exactly why I don't trust anyone except reputed Meteorologists & it's too far out.

[Ingyball]

Man if that MJO can just crank into phase 7 like GEFS is just starting to suggest and then round through Phase 2 throughout the Spring this could be a big severe weather season overall. Less enthusiastic about the Plains right now, but need to watch out this potential wet period plays out. If the Central and Southern Plains can flip their precip anomalies through the first half of March and then we enter phase 7 and continue stay wet, my confidence will skyrocket that the eastern half of the Plains will have some type of outbreak this spring. Otherwise I'm pretty confident in the lower OV and Tennessee valleys having something nasty this spring as that's where the heaviest precip has fallen this winter and one of our forecaster's here has some research in predicting big outbreaks where above normal rainfall has fallen before the outbreak and the soil is saturated. Unless we just see the pattern die again (or become heavily suppressed.), I don't think we escape this year without a big outbreak.

 

As for the Plains my concern is more towards a high impact isolated event rather than a widespread outbreak, which is pretty typical of La Nina. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

47 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Man if that MJO can just crank into phase 7 like GEFS is just starting to suggest and then round through Phase 2 throughout the Spring this could be a big severe weather season overall. Less enthusiastic about the Plains right now, but need to watch out this potential wet period plays out. If the Central and Southern Plains can flip their precip anomalies through the first half of March and then we enter phase 7 and continue stay wet, my confidence will skyrocket that the eastern half of the Plains will have some type of outbreak this spring. Otherwise I'm pretty confident in the lower OV and Tennessee valleys having something nasty this spring as that's where the heaviest precip has fallen this winter and one of our forecaster's here has some research in predicting big outbreaks where above normal rainfall has fallen before the outbreak and the soil is saturated. Unless we just see the pattern die again (or become heavily suppressed.), I don't think we escape this year without a big outbreak.

 

As for the Plains my concern is more towards a high impact isolated event rather than a widespread outbreak, which is pretty typical of La Nina. 

The La Nina is surprisingly hanging on... latest weekly reading has -1.7C anomaly at 1+2, -1C at 3, -0.6C at 3.4. If the La Nina can hang on, even in a weak state, that should make this warm season something we haven't seen in a while... that includes the severe weather/tornado season (for better or for worse) and the hurricane season.

Last time La Nina has hung on through the year was 2000. 2011 was just 0.1 ONI shy. I don't expect this to happen, but then again, I didn't think the Nina would be hanging on like this as we head into March.

This time period certainly has the potential to produce something big... looks like a reservoir of moisture will be there... just a question of whether a system can come along and favorably tap that reservoir.

Edited February 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

5 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

This time of year, this synoptic pattern would produce severe weather most certainly in TX/OK. Depending on moisture content and lapse rates, a secondary area could be near the low.

53 degree dew point in Iowa -> 1300 sbcape

Also strong low-level shear and it's close to the 992mb low. Screams at least a slight risk for tornadoes regardless if it's in the form of a squall line or a broken band of supercells. Nice little dry punch pushing just north of KC.

Edited February 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014