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May 6-9, 2024 | POTENTIAL OUTBREAK ūüĆ™


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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   0400 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024

 

   Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

 

   ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON...

 

   ...DISCUSSION...

   A multi-day period of organized severe thunderstorm potential

   appears likely across parts of the central to eastern CONUS next

   week, beginning on Day 4/Monday across the Plains, and continuing

   through at least Day 6/Wednesday.

 

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Posted (edited)

Strong signal 

Day 4/Monday...

   A negatively tilted upper trough will eject northeastward over the

   northern/central Plains on Monday. Pronounced low-level mass

   response will encourage rich low-level moisture to advect northward

   over the southern/central Plains, as a surface low rapidly deepens

   over the northern High Plains. Strong deep-layer shear and at least

   moderate instability are expected to be in place ahead of a surface

   dryline extending across the southern/central Plains.

 

   Thunderstorms will likely erupt along the length of the dryline by

   late Monday afternoon from southern NE into central KS and

   north-central OK. Supercells are likely to be the dominant mode

   initially given the strength of the deep-layer shear. Both very

   large hail and tornadoes will be possible with these supercells as

   they spread eastward across the southern/central Plains through

   Monday evening. With a southerly low-level jet forecast to

   strengthen to at least 50-60 kt Saturday evening, a corresponding

   rapid increase in low-level shear will likely support a continued

   threat for tornadoes with any discrete convection. Some of these

   tornadoes could be strong. The severe threat will likely continue

   Monday night with eastward extent across the Plains, before

   convection possibly weakens some towards early Tuesday morning.

   Given increased confidence in high-end severe potential, a 30%

   severe area has been introduced from parts of southern NE into

   central KS and north-central OK.

 

   ...Day 5/Tuesday...

   The large-scale upper trough/low is forecast to gradually occlude

   over the northern Plains on Tuesday. But, an enhanced mid-level jet

   and embedded vorticity maximum will likely overspread parts of the

   Upper Midwest, mid MS Valley, and OH Valley through Tuesday evening.

   An expansive warm sector will likely be in place across these

   regions ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Robust convection

   should develop along/ahead of these boundaries through the day.

   Sufficient instability and deep-layer shear will likely exist to

   support organized severe thunderstorms, including supercells posing

   a threat for all severe hazards. The northeastward extent of the

   warm sector remains somewhat uncertain into the OH Valley. Still,

   some severe risk will probably persist into Tuesday evening/night

   with eastward extent across the mid MS Valley and lower OH

   Valley/Midwest. Expansion of the 15% severe area may be needed in

   later outlooks, pending better model agreement and increased

   confidence in the eastward extent of rich low-level moisture and

   related instability.

 

   ...Day 6/Wednesday...

   The upper trough/low should gradually evolve eastward across the

   northern Plains on Wednesday. While there are still some differences

   in model guidance regarding the evolution of an embedded shortwave

   trough, there appears to be enough agreement in the synoptic pattern

   to include a 15% severe delineation for Wednesday for parts of the

   southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Ozarks and towards the mid MS

   Valley. Across these areas, strong instability is forecast to

   develop east of a front/dryline. With enhanced mid-level flow

   persisting with a westerly mid/upper-level jet, organized severe

   thunderstorms should once again develop Wednesday afternoon.

   Supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards may occur. The

   northern/eastern extent of the severe threat is unclear, as the

   convection from Tuesday may tend to limit better low-level moisture

   return into the OH/TN Valleys. Depending on model trends over the

   next few days, the 15% severe area may need to be expanded to

   include these regions.

 

   ...Day 7/Thursday and Day 8/Friday...

   Some severe threat may continue on Thursday from parts of TX into

   the lower MS Valley/Southeast, generally along/south of a front and

   any convection that develops Wednesday. Too much uncertainty

   currently exists to include a 15% severe area at this time, but

   trends will be monitored. A severe risk also appears possible next

   Friday across the same general regions, but confidence in the

   placement of the front and convection is even lower than Thursday.

 

20240503_175921.jpg

Edited by StormfanaticInd
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Tuesday is looking like a morning mcs followed by more storms late afternoon and evening. Both waves could be severe with Tuesday afternoon and evening being the biggest threat. Of course this all depends on how morning mcs behaves

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Posted (edited)

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   0400 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024

 

   Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

 

   ...DISCUSSION...

   An active period of organized severe thunderstorms should persist

   into at least the middle of next week across parts of the southern

   Plains into the mid MS Valley, Mid-South, and Midwest/OH Valley. The

   15% severe areas for both Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday have

   been expanded based on latest model trends.

 

   ...Day 4/Tuesday...

   The primary upper low over the northern Plains is forecast to

   gradually occlude on Tuesday. But, a strong mid-level jet streak

   should overspread parts of the mid MS Valley and Midwest through the

   day. A secondary surface low should develop northeastward across

   these regions, with a warm front also lifting northward towards

   southern WI and southern Lower MI. Thunderstorms related to

   low-level warm advection and activity that has spread eastward from

   the southern/central Plains may be ongoing Tuesday morning. It

   remains unclear if these thunderstorms will strengthen once again as

   they develop eastward in tandem with a destabilizing warm sector.

   Additional robust convection will likely develop Tuesday afternoon

   farther south along the dryline over the Ozarks and Mid-South. A

   favorable parameter space for supercells and all severe hazards

   remains evident, with the threat for severe thunderstorms continuing

   Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the OH Valley.

 

   ...Day 5/Wednesday...

   Although some differences in model guidance regarding the upper-air

   pattern across the central/eastern CONUS begin to emerge by

   Wednesday, there is still good agreement that a belt of strong

   mid-level flow will remain in place from the southern/central Plains

   northeastward to the OH Valley and Great Lakes. It appears that

   another embedded shortwave trough will advance eastward from the

   southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley by Wednesday evening.

   A very moist and moderately to strongly unstable airmass should

   reside to the east of a cold front/dryline across these regions,

   potentially extending as far north into much of the Midwest/OH

   Valley. Strong deep-layer shear will favor organized convection,

   including supercells and bowing line segments posing a threat for

   all severe hazards. Depending on the influence of prior convection,

   the very favorable parameter space forecast for Wednesday across

   parts of the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley and OH Valley

   may necessitate greater severe probabilities in a later outlook.

 

image.thumb.png.07127d99f8729346d4a14ec053bbd6cd.png

 

Edited by StormfanaticInd
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6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Oh wow. This more and more like an OV/Tennessee valley outbreak

Certainly is looking that way! Not what I expected to see when I woke up lol

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  • The title was changed to May 6-9, 2024 | POTENTIAL OUTBREAK ūüĆ™
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, OxfordOh_ said:

Holy..

IMG_0562.jpeg

Damnit dude... this makes me incredibly nervous, I live dead center in the max probabilities Wednesday. I also live in a home without a basement and public shelters just aren't really a thing here in southern Illinois.

On top of all that i'm in the light purple bullseye on Tuesday. Not good man.

Edited by Neoncyclone
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22 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Damnit dude... this makes me incredibly nervous, I live dead center in the max probabilities Wednesday. I also live in a home without a basement and public shelters just aren't really a thing here in southern Illinois.

On top of all that i'm in the light purple bullseye on Tuesday. Not good man.

Living somewhere with no basement myself I get it most definitely nerve racking! Especially being this far out. My family and I will go over to a relatives house if this trend continues lol. Hopefully you can do the same my man be safe!

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Guidance so far seems to keep the worst of it north of here on Monday but we'll see what it looks like as we get closer. Could have some cloud cover/capping issues here but if not then it could get ugly. 

The CSU probs though are ūüė≥

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1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

We could legit end up having 2 high end days in a row in the OV

 

Yeah I'm thinking Tuesday and Wednesday are gonna end up being the main show of this outbreak. Monday looks iffy to me. Too linear further north and probably cloud cover/capping issues further south since better forcing is further north. 

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2 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

Yeah I'm thinking Tuesday and Wednesday are gonna end up being the main show of this outbreak. Monday looks iffy to me. Too linear further north and probably cloud cover/capping issues further south since better forcing is further north. 

you don't think too much will happen?

Untitled2.png

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5 minutes ago, Chinook said:

you don't think too much will happen?

Untitled2.png

Probably should have worded that better, there will definitely be severe weather and tornadoes, but as of right now I don't think this will be a major violent tornado outbreak. But we'll see

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0z model suite is a little more concerning than I expected it to be. Hoping the cap stays strong and cloud cover stays down here because that's gonna be a nasty environment if we end up getting supercells. Might be trending towards a nocturnal event too

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  • Meteorologist

Monday should not be taken lightly and I'm glad that SPC isn't playing around with an early Day 2 moderate. Where the upper jet streak positions itself will be important for where the outbreak focuses, but that orientation into the warm sector is very concerning. Storm mode may be the only thing that limits this outbreak and even then we're probably looking at a derecho if it goes linear too quickly. That said, that angle of the jet streak favors discrete more. 

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12z HRRR is just downright nasty with what looks like 2 rounds of supercells for OK with an overnight threat for the eastern half of the state. Also more of a semi-discrete mode in KS. Wouldn't be surprised to see the moderate expanded east. Starting to get a little more concerned now 

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