StormfanaticInd Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON... ...DISCUSSION... A multi-day period of organized severe thunderstorm potential appears likely across parts of the central to eastern CONUS next week, beginning on Day 4/Monday across the Plains, and continuing through at least Day 6/Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 3 Author Share Posted May 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 3 Author Share Posted May 3 (edited) Strong signal Day 4/Monday... A negatively tilted upper trough will eject northeastward over the northern/central Plains on Monday. Pronounced low-level mass response will encourage rich low-level moisture to advect northward over the southern/central Plains, as a surface low rapidly deepens over the northern High Plains. Strong deep-layer shear and at least moderate instability are expected to be in place ahead of a surface dryline extending across the southern/central Plains. Thunderstorms will likely erupt along the length of the dryline by late Monday afternoon from southern NE into central KS and north-central OK. Supercells are likely to be the dominant mode initially given the strength of the deep-layer shear. Both very large hail and tornadoes will be possible with these supercells as they spread eastward across the southern/central Plains through Monday evening. With a southerly low-level jet forecast to strengthen to at least 50-60 kt Saturday evening, a corresponding rapid increase in low-level shear will likely support a continued threat for tornadoes with any discrete convection. Some of these tornadoes could be strong. The severe threat will likely continue Monday night with eastward extent across the Plains, before convection possibly weakens some towards early Tuesday morning. Given increased confidence in high-end severe potential, a 30% severe area has been introduced from parts of southern NE into central KS and north-central OK. ...Day 5/Tuesday... The large-scale upper trough/low is forecast to gradually occlude over the northern Plains on Tuesday. But, an enhanced mid-level jet and embedded vorticity maximum will likely overspread parts of the Upper Midwest, mid MS Valley, and OH Valley through Tuesday evening. An expansive warm sector will likely be in place across these regions ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Robust convection should develop along/ahead of these boundaries through the day. Sufficient instability and deep-layer shear will likely exist to support organized severe thunderstorms, including supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards. The northeastward extent of the warm sector remains somewhat uncertain into the OH Valley. Still, some severe risk will probably persist into Tuesday evening/night with eastward extent across the mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley/Midwest. Expansion of the 15% severe area may be needed in later outlooks, pending better model agreement and increased confidence in the eastward extent of rich low-level moisture and related instability. ...Day 6/Wednesday... The upper trough/low should gradually evolve eastward across the northern Plains on Wednesday. While there are still some differences in model guidance regarding the evolution of an embedded shortwave trough, there appears to be enough agreement in the synoptic pattern to include a 15% severe delineation for Wednesday for parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Ozarks and towards the mid MS Valley. Across these areas, strong instability is forecast to develop east of a front/dryline. With enhanced mid-level flow persisting with a westerly mid/upper-level jet, organized severe thunderstorms should once again develop Wednesday afternoon. Supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards may occur. The northern/eastern extent of the severe threat is unclear, as the convection from Tuesday may tend to limit better low-level moisture return into the OH/TN Valleys. Depending on model trends over the next few days, the 15% severe area may need to be expanded to include these regions. ...Day 7/Thursday and Day 8/Friday... Some severe threat may continue on Thursday from parts of TX into the lower MS Valley/Southeast, generally along/south of a front and any convection that develops Wednesday. Too much uncertainty currently exists to include a 15% severe area at this time, but trends will be monitored. A severe risk also appears possible next Friday across the same general regions, but confidence in the placement of the front and convection is even lower than Thursday. Edited May 3 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 4 Author Share Posted May 4 Tuesday is looking like a morning mcs followed by more storms late afternoon and evening. Both waves could be severe with Tuesday afternoon and evening being the biggest threat. Of course this all depends on how morning mcs behaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 4 Author Share Posted May 4 👀 Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 4 Author Share Posted May 4 (edited) Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active period of organized severe thunderstorms should persist into at least the middle of next week across parts of the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, Mid-South, and Midwest/OH Valley. The 15% severe areas for both Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday have been expanded based on latest model trends. ...Day 4/Tuesday... The primary upper low over the northern Plains is forecast to gradually occlude on Tuesday. But, a strong mid-level jet streak should overspread parts of the mid MS Valley and Midwest through the day. A secondary surface low should develop northeastward across these regions, with a warm front also lifting northward towards southern WI and southern Lower MI. Thunderstorms related to low-level warm advection and activity that has spread eastward from the southern/central Plains may be ongoing Tuesday morning. It remains unclear if these thunderstorms will strengthen once again as they develop eastward in tandem with a destabilizing warm sector. Additional robust convection will likely develop Tuesday afternoon farther south along the dryline over the Ozarks and Mid-South. A favorable parameter space for supercells and all severe hazards remains evident, with the threat for severe thunderstorms continuing Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the OH Valley. ...Day 5/Wednesday... Although some differences in model guidance regarding the upper-air pattern across the central/eastern CONUS begin to emerge by Wednesday, there is still good agreement that a belt of strong mid-level flow will remain in place from the southern/central Plains northeastward to the OH Valley and Great Lakes. It appears that another embedded shortwave trough will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley by Wednesday evening. A very moist and moderately to strongly unstable airmass should reside to the east of a cold front/dryline across these regions, potentially extending as far north into much of the Midwest/OH Valley. Strong deep-layer shear will favor organized convection, including supercells and bowing line segments posing a threat for all severe hazards. Depending on the influence of prior convection, the very favorable parameter space forecast for Wednesday across parts of the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley and OH Valley may necessitate greater severe probabilities in a later outlook. Edited May 4 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 Holy.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 4 Author Share Posted May 4 (edited) 12 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said: Holy.. Oh wow. This more and more like an OV/Tennessee valley outbreak Edited May 4 by StormfanaticInd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Oh wow. This more and more like an OV/Tennessee valley outbreak Certainly is looking that way! Not what I expected to see when I woke up lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 (edited) 2 hours ago, OxfordOh_ said: Holy.. Damnit dude... this makes me incredibly nervous, I live dead center in the max probabilities Wednesday. I also live in a home without a basement and public shelters just aren't really a thing here in southern Illinois. On top of all that i'm in the light purple bullseye on Tuesday. Not good man. Edited May 4 by Neoncyclone 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 22 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Damnit dude... this makes me incredibly nervous, I live dead center in the max probabilities Wednesday. I also live in a home without a basement and public shelters just aren't really a thing here in southern Illinois. On top of all that i'm in the light purple bullseye on Tuesday. Not good man. Living somewhere with no basement myself I get it most definitely nerve racking! Especially being this far out. My family and I will go over to a relatives house if this trend continues lol. Hopefully you can do the same my man be safe! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 Guidance so far seems to keep the worst of it north of here on Monday but we'll see what it looks like as we get closer. Could have some cloud cover/capping issues here but if not then it could get ugly. The CSU probs though are 😳 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 4 Author Share Posted May 4 (edited) We could legit end up having 2 high end days in a row in the OV Edited May 4 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: We could legit end up having 2 high end days in a row in the OV Yeah I'm thinking Tuesday and Wednesday are gonna end up being the main show of this outbreak. Monday looks iffy to me. Too linear further north and probably cloud cover/capping issues further south since better forcing is further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 2 hours ago, ElectricStorm said: Yeah I'm thinking Tuesday and Wednesday are gonna end up being the main show of this outbreak. Monday looks iffy to me. Too linear further north and probably cloud cover/capping issues further south since better forcing is further north. you don't think too much will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 5 minutes ago, Chinook said: you don't think too much will happen? Probably should have worded that better, there will definitely be severe weather and tornadoes, but as of right now I don't think this will be a major violent tornado outbreak. But we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 0z NAM didn't appear too exciting for Tuesday. Only went out to 12z on Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 0z model suite is a little more concerning than I expected it to be. Hoping the cap stays strong and cloud cover stays down here because that's gonna be a nasty environment if we end up getting supercells. Might be trending towards a nocturnal event too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 5 Meteorologist Share Posted May 5 Monday should not be taken lightly and I'm glad that SPC isn't playing around with an early Day 2 moderate. Where the upper jet streak positions itself will be important for where the outbreak focuses, but that orientation into the warm sector is very concerning. Storm mode may be the only thing that limits this outbreak and even then we're probably looking at a derecho if it goes linear too quickly. That said, that angle of the jet streak favors discrete more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 5 Author Share Posted May 5 Monday definitely looks bad. Got to just hope for storm mode to be unfavorable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 5 Author Share Posted May 5 Tuesday and Wednesday still looking good for severe but has gotten more complicated. If everything plays out right though this could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 12z HRRR is just downright nasty with what looks like 2 rounds of supercells for OK with an overnight threat for the eastern half of the state. Also more of a semi-discrete mode in KS. Wouldn't be surprised to see the moderate expanded east. Starting to get a little more concerned now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 5 Author Share Posted May 5 😬 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 5 Author Share Posted May 5 Gfs looks bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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