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April 6-?, 2024 | Severe Weather/Potential Tornado Outbreak


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Here comes the next system with another round of severe weather potential. Noticed this system on the models the last few days but was surprised to see a 15% area for Day 5 (Saturday) 

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I have big concerns on moisture return and instability, and don't expect this to be a major event whatsoever but hopefully we can at least get a nice storm out of it.

Both GFS and Euro agree on a dryline setting up Saturday afternoon 

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I would think wind and hail would be the main threat here but you can't ever count out a tornado or two. Also need to watch Sunday further east, and wouldn't be surprised to see a 15% area added soon. 

Edited by ElectricStorm
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Tomorrow would probably be a classic Plains tornado outbreak if we had better moisture. Still could be a few tors although it'll most likely be more of a wind threat. Not expecting much here as most of it should be to the north and east but maybe we can end up with a nice storm. 

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Whoa Day 2 Moderate

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For 15# tornado and 45# wind

Also a 10# tornado area for Tuesday. Honestly I'm seeing potential storm mode issues so I'm a little skeptical on the 10# and 15# areas but the 45# wind area certainly looks justified based on the model runs I've seen. Probably will be some embedded supercells as well. Certainly shaping up to be a dangerous event. 

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  • The title was changed to April 6-11?, 2024 | Severe Weather/Potential Tornado Outbreak
  • The title was changed to April 6-?, 2024 | Severe Weather/Potential Tornado Outbreak

Wow, I was so focused on the eclipse I didn't even realize there was a D2 Moderate. Models look messy, but embedded supercells and QLCS events can go pretty crazy sometimes. the early morning after Easter Sunday 2020 comes to mind. Also can't rule out pre-frontal rogue supercells, definitely going to be a dangerous day tomorrow! 

 

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6 hours ago, BuckeyeGal said:

I do not like the discrete look of the storms Wednesday-Thursday.. especially paired with the deepening low’s approach. Yikes.

Been watching that. Ohio seems to be a hot spot this season 

Edited by StormfanaticInd
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👀

The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass

   modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with

   multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well

   above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed

   layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the

   troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe

   weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic

   features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a

   confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential

   and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15

   percent area

image.thumb.png.9320a3b4c1901b726b0862dd38658250.png

Edited by StormfanaticInd
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