ElectricStorm Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 (edited) Here comes the next system with another round of severe weather potential. Noticed this system on the models the last few days but was surprised to see a 15% area for Day 5 (Saturday) I have big concerns on moisture return and instability, and don't expect this to be a major event whatsoever but hopefully we can at least get a nice storm out of it. Both GFS and Euro agree on a dryline setting up Saturday afternoon I would think wind and hail would be the main threat here but you can't ever count out a tornado or two. Also need to watch Sunday further east, and wouldn't be surprised to see a 15% area added soon. Edited April 18 by ElectricStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Possible tornado west of Robins AFB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Active pattern coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 5 Author Share Posted April 5 Tomorrow would probably be a classic Plains tornado outbreak if we had better moisture. Still could be a few tors although it'll most likely be more of a wind threat. Not expecting much here as most of it should be to the north and east but maybe we can end up with a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 6 Author Share Posted April 6 Marginal risk moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 6 Author Share Posted April 6 Ok can we not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Could be widespread heavy rain and severe weather next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Love the doughnut hole over NW Ohio lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Added a 15% up here in my neck of the woods for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 9 Author Share Posted April 9 Whoa Day 2 Moderate For 15# tornado and 45# wind Also a 10# tornado area for Tuesday. Honestly I'm seeing potential storm mode issues so I'm a little skeptical on the 10# and 15# areas but the 45# wind area certainly looks justified based on the model runs I've seen. Probably will be some embedded supercells as well. Certainly shaping up to be a dangerous event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voltwaffle Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 SPC has an outline for day 7, the 15th. Looks like a classic plains setup might be incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 Significant difference between 12z NAM and 3K NAM in regards to Thursday for the OV. Obviously the 3K NAM would be a greater severe risk here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 9 Author Share Posted April 9 Ok nadocast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 Wow, I was so focused on the eclipse I didn't even realize there was a D2 Moderate. Models look messy, but embedded supercells and QLCS events can go pretty crazy sometimes. the early morning after Easter Sunday 2020 comes to mind. Also can't rule out pre-frontal rogue supercells, definitely going to be a dangerous day tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 I always get a bit nervous when a supercell rides an OFB like this, especially so close to somewhere so populated. Lets hope it doesn't root and make up for the lack of LL shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 Starting to look interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 Decent looking line of storms east of Indy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted April 10 Admin Share Posted April 10 I do not like the discrete look of the storms Wednesday-Thursday.. especially paired with the deepening low’s approach. Yikes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 10 Author Share Posted April 10 Updated Day 1 outlook is out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) 6 hours ago, BuckeyeGal said: I do not like the discrete look of the storms Wednesday-Thursday.. especially paired with the deepening low’s approach. Yikes. Been watching that. Ohio seems to be a hot spot this season Edited April 10 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Next is starting to look like a Plains outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 (edited) 👀 The actual severe weather setup appears substantial. Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf on D3, with multiple days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well above-normal surface temperatures and a pronounced elevated mixed layer. With the likely flow field amplification through the troposphere, all ingredients appear present for a significant severe weather day on D6/Monday. The areal uncertainty of the synoptic features is the primary limiting factor. For now, have added a confined 30 percent highlight to indicate the higher-end potential and the most probable corridor, while broadening the previous 15 percent area Edited April 10 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Today looks potentially bad down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Already bunch tornado warnings in LA this a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 10 Author Share Posted April 10 Strongest Day 6 wording from the SPC I have seen in a very long time... Certainly has some high end potential. Of course at this range it can still downtrend so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.d854dd115fa9dfd0656f7d1835c449ce.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now