ElectricStorm Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 (edited) A couple of interesting setups over the next couple of days. Marginal risk for Tuesday for mainly parts of MO, but I doubt we much storm development so I'm not too concerned there. Wednesday is a little more interesting with an upgrade to slight risk including a 5% tornado area in E KS/W MO including the KC metro. 2% tornado area extends south into OK and far N TX but it's highly conditional. I'm highly skeptical anything will be able to break the cap but there's still enough time for things to change, especially if we end up getting a little better moisture. Anything that does manage to break it would be capable of all hazards. Thursday has a bigger threat but should be mostly wind/hail for the current slight risk, although I'd watch further north in the IL area for better tornado potential. Wouldn't be surprised to see a slight risk up there at some point. Edited March 15 by ElectricStorm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Lake breeze meets warm front in this neck of the woods, Thursday. Could set up quite the battle zone gradient. Could be a 30 degree difference within 30 miles. Interesting to see what happens. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 12 Author Share Posted March 12 Looks like @ClicheVortex2014 is gonna have quite a day tomorrow. Rare extreme fire risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 (edited) Thursday morning/mid-day definitely looks very interesting in KS, and especially MO. Slight cap but definitely weak enough that it could potentially be broken. Current CAM's not showing that, but with a set-up like this you really can't rely on the CAM's at all for storm initiation. E KS Central MO W MO Edited March 12 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 12 Author Share Posted March 12 Getting 4/19 vibes for tomorrow. Very fine line between a cap bust and a significant tornado event. Some models have a dry pool ahead of the dryline at 850mb which could hold updrafts in check, even if the cap breaks. Though forecast and a very interesting day ahead. Strong tornado threat for any storm that can fully mature. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Great parameters will exist around Oklahoma City. However, the HRRR and other models have convection up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 So wild runs for Thursday to say the least. First one is North-Central Arkansas Second is St Louis area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Going to have to watch the warm front Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across a large area from the Middle Mississippi Valley into eastern Oklahoma, East Texas, and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Greatest threat is currently expected to be from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity early Thursday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southwestward through southeast KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. A warm front will extend from this low east-northeastward through central IL. A broad warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front Thursday morning, characterized by dewpoints ranging from the mid/upper 60s over east TX to the mid 50s near the IA/MO border. This reservoir of low-level moisture will exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate to strong buoyancy as heating destabilizes the air mass. As such, thunderstorms are anticipated across much of the warm sector as the cold front gradually shifts eastward throughout the day. Some strong to severe storms are possible, particularly in the corridor from northern MO into the Arklatex. ...Mid MS Valley Thursday morning into late afternoon/early evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low and warm front early Thursday morning. General expectation is for most of this activity to be north of the warm front, with an attendant threat for isolated hail. However, there is some potential for the southern edge of these storms (and associated outflow) to move within the far northern corridor of the warm sector, resulting in some threat for damaging gusts as well as hail. This activity is expected to continue eastward, reaching the Middle OH Valley by the afternoon. The presence of these early morning storms could act to shift the position of entire the frontal zone southward, with an attendant shift of the afternoon severe threat as well. Additionally, if strong outflow is realized, the resulting boundary could act as a focus for afternoon development across MO. Evolution of these mesoscale details varies within the guidance, but the more favorable area for afternoon development does appear to be over central MO, which is farther south than forecast yesterday when the area just south of the warm front looked more plausible. Given steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear, large to very large hail is still anticipated with the initial more cellular late afternoon storms. Strong downdrafts are possible as well, with potential for upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters. Veered low-level flow is forecast to limit the tornado potential, although interaction with any boundaries could lead to mesoscale corridors of slightly greater tornado threat. ...Middle OH Valley during the afternoon and evening... As the activity initially over the Mid MS Valley continues eastward, there is some potential it transitions from elevated to surface based (or at least near-surface based) as it interacts with the warm front progressing northward across the region. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate southerly low-level flow beneath strong westerlies will result in vertically veering low-level hodographs that could support updraft organization and even a few tornadoes. Uncertainties regarding the position of the front as well as how the convection evolves out of the Mid MS Valley limit forecast confidence with this outlook, but future guidance will be evaluated closely, and upgrades may be considered in later outlooks. ...Far Northeast TX and eastern OK into AR during the afternoon and evening... Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous over the region, with some guidance even showing height rises during the afternoon. Even so, weak surface troughing is expected to interact with an increasingly unstable airmass across the region during the afternoon, resulting scattered thunderstorms from far northeast TX into eastern OK and western AR between 18Z and 21Z. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Low-level southerly flow (perhaps even southeasterly) is also anticipated, resulting in low-level hodographs that support tornadogenesis, particularly from far southeast OK into western AR. Even with favorable hodographs, storm interactions could prevent the discreteness needed for updraft organization. ...Mid MS Valley into the Mid-South during evening and overnight... After the initial development described above, some upscale growth into one or more clusters appears plausible, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts as these clusters move eastward. Buoyancy will gradually decrease with eastward extent, leading to the expectation that whatever line segments do develop will lose intensity as they continue eastward overnight. ..Mosier.. 03/13/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 KIND Thursday into Friday... Focus is on chances for severe weather on Thursday into Thursday night. However, there remains a lot of uncertainty as details will depend on mesoscale features and interactions of areas of convection. Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing with an initial round of forcing Thursday morning. The stronger portion of the 850mb jet will be west and impact more of northern Illinois by Thursday morning. Will trim back the very high blended guidance PoPs. After the initial round of convection in the morning, some upper energy may trigger scattered to perhaps numerous convection midday. This could depend on coverage of the morning convection and thinning of cloud cover. Will go with mainly chance PoPs, with perhaps some likely PoPs late in the day north to account for storms along an approaching cold front. The most likely round of convection will come Thursday night. An area of surface low pressure will move through lower Michigan and drag a cold front into the area. This, another potential wave riding along the front to the southwest, a decent low level jet, and plentiful moisture will all work together to bring showers and thunderstorms to the area. Will go high PoPs all areas. Severe convection is possible, especially later Thursday afternoon and night. However, the threat remains conditional. If convection is minimal Thursday morning and early afternoon, good instability will build across the area with surface heating and steep mid level lapse rates. Surface dewpoints will be around 60, and a 40-50kt low level jet will be nearby. Primary threat would be damaging winds and large hail, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially if a surface wave can ride along the front. More convection earlier in the day could disrupt the atmosphere and diminish the severe threat. Convection to the south and west could also disrupt things Thursday night. Will continue to monitor closely and highlight the threat in products and social media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 KIWX Late tonight into Thu is the primary concern for this forecast package with the potential for some strong/severe storms. A piece of the western CONUS trough is expected to break off and eject NE into strongly confluent flow over our region. This will send a weak surface low through the area supported by strong prefrontal warm/moist air advection and associated building convective instability. Wind/shear profiles are highly supportive of organized convection (850mb winds near 40 kts and 500mb winds near 70 kts) but as is so often the case the instability picture is muddy. Multiple rounds of convection are likely and this leads to low confidence in the final mesoscale picture. The primary source of uncertainty centers around how far north the warm front and associated surface low setup. Lower-res deterministic NCEP models indicate the warm front blasts well north of here Thu morning with heavy rain over central MI and largely dry conditions locally. Hi-res CAM`s suggest the warm front stalls roughly in our northern CWA with potentially several rounds of convection training through our area late tonight and into the day Thu. This idea has some support in the ECMWF and some lower res ensemble guidance as well given a weaker/more sheared midlevel wave in highly confluent flow aloft. This is currently the preferred solution given that upper air pattern and the fact that it is often difficult to get warm fronts through Michigan this time of year due to very cold lakes. This scenario likely supports three distinct rounds of convection as seen in several 00Z hi-res models. The first with the primary theta-e surge during the early morning, followed by some type of convective cluster around midday (noted in several models), and finally with the cold front during the evening. This doesn`t allow instability to ever really build (save for perhaps ahead of the cold front Thu evening which is at the end of most current hi-res guidance) suggesting primarily an isolated heavy rain threat with perhaps some pockets of gusty winds/hail. This will have to be watched closely though because midlevel lapse rates are impressive (over 7 C/km) and while low level moisture isn`t extreme it could still be enough to generate 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE (sufficient in this kinematic environment). If this better instability does materialize, all hazards are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Big yikes 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 13 Author Share Posted March 13 I'm not seeing it today for anything south of Kansas. Cap looks a little too strong, and too much dry air aloft. Could still see a storm or two try to fire but I'm thinking we'll see nothing here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 ILN with a lengthy disco on how tomorrow could exceed the marginal in place or not be as severe. 18z HRRR looking very active. Quote .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Primary concern tonight will be with shower and thunderstorm chances/coverage. Ample sunshine and warm breezes across the ILN CWA early this afternoon, and dew points have held steady in the lower 40s which is keeping humidities in the 30-40% range, so with the more sporadic wind gusts vs yesterday`s more widespread and stronger winds, did not feel a need to message any fire weather concerns into this evening on a larger scale. After midnight, increasing theta-e advection aloft will drive the potential for an arc of showers and perhaps a few elevated storms from southwest to northeast across mainly the northwest half of the ILN forecast area. This is not a high confidence signal across the suite of convective allowing and global ensemble members, however, thus chances along I-71 are maintained in the 20-40% range. A better /spatial and forcing/ signal exists for showers and thunderstorms to develop tonight in Illinois and cross Indiana on an ENE trajectory toward the northwestern third of the ILN forecast area, arriving in the hours before or just after sunrise in west central Ohio. Likely elevated in nature, these are unlikely to be strong / severe but do warrant the maintenance of higher rain chances that were ongoing in the forecast already across west central Ohio in the 10Z-12Z timeframe. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Expect the cluster of showers/storms mentioned above entering west central Ohio around sunrise to continue on a east-northeast trajectory toward central Ohio during the morning hours, but it is at this point where the forecast begins to lose some degree of certainty, and how long these hold together downstream over central Ohio (or perhaps moving more into northern Ohio) remains to be seen. In general, as a potent mid level speed max ejects northeast owing to height falls digging into the Rockies and with heights rising downstream over the Ohio Valley, activity should have the propensity to either weaken/diminish over central Ohio or lift more north into northern Ohio as forcing diminishes immediately over the ILN CWA, leaving somewhat of an open-warm- sector lull across much of our forecast area from late morning into early mid afternoon. That being said, as this speed max and embedded shortwave arrives into Indiana/Michigan during the afternoon, expect a renewed storm cluster/MCS to develop across ILN/IN and move rapidly toward MI/OH. There are some convective-allowing solutions which develop a rather robust MCS that rides along the synoptic warm front lying either just north of our area or across our northern tier, taking on linear/bowing characteristics. Some solutions ride this activity well north of our area, but there is a general / overarching trend in most guidance /backed up by machine learning probabilities based on GEFS/HREF/ that our northern half of our forecast area is under a threat for severe storms tomorrow that could - if things come together - exceed current Level 1 /Marginal Risk/ categories from the SPC. But the uncertainty tied to the coverage / track of this cluster of storms, coupled with marginal thermodynamics are likely playing a role here. What we do know is that low level and deep level shear /hodograph curvature/ is rather optimal for storm longevity and organization for any MCS or discrete cells which may form, but there is some concern for the level of moistening that can be maintained in an open warm sector scenario. If dewpoints can`t ascend past the mid 50s - which is being hinted by some of the CAMS which have handled low level moisture more optimally this week - overall convection may struggle to maintain intensity outside a more optimal setup with regards to shear/warm front/synoptic forcing with the jet streak. This situation will need to be watched closely, and if a more robust storm cluster can get going in this kind of shear environment across the northern half of the ILN forecast area, all modes of severe weather including a tornado or two will be in play. After the potential afternoon-early evening storm threats, we are not out of the woods as the passing jet streak will begin to push low pressure and associated cold front southeast toward our area later Thursday night into Friday morning, and another wave of storms /likely focused more to the southwest of the ILN CWA/ may impact areas along the Ohio River and points south later in the night. While severe threats with this activity would be less, there would still be ample low level shear in play,as despite the more reduced instability by coming through at such a late time of night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 8 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: ILN with a lengthy disco on how tomorrow could exceed the marginal in place or not be as severe. 18z HRRR looking very active. Pretty wild run for sure. interested to see how it looks in the morning after the MCS moves through. Never know how those will affect storms later in the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 13 Author Share Posted March 13 CU field starting to develop near the dryline in N/NE OK. I would watch areas from Tulsa north for potential storm development. South of that looks pretty stable. Dryline well east of OKC metro now so looks like we're not getting anything here. Looks like a watch is coming soon for the warm front in KS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted March 13 Admin Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, Neoncyclone said: Pretty wild run for sure. interested to see how it looks in the morning after the MCS moves through. Never know how those will affect storms later in the day. This is definitely a set up for some discrete powerful Supercells. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Tomorrow is looking very active on the CAMS. Supercells being modeled around St Louis is concerning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 (edited) Mcs tomorrow late morning/ afternoon might be the main show for central Indiana unless we somehow quickly recover which models do show. Edited March 13 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 🤔 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 Starting to wrap up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Reed timmer from his stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 Wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now