March 4-9, 2024 | Severe Weather

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like another couple rounds of potential severe weather over the next week or so. A couple low ends days Monday and Tuesday but could see better potential later in the week with the second system. 

Could see some OK/TX action on Thursday 3/7 but I'm not really seeing much there so far. Friday 3/8 has better potential for the gulf coast areas, but could be over a relatively small area.

Globals have been ridiculously bad so far this year and pretty much every potential event has downtrended around the Day 4-6 timeframe so we'll see if it's different this time. Something to watch 

Edited March 9 by ElectricStorm

[ElectricStorm]

Now have Day 4 and 5 slight risks for SPC 

[Hoosier]

Tornado warnings in Wisconsin

[snowlover2]

32 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Tornado warnings in Wisconsin

NW IL too.

[OxfordOh_]

Sirens were going off in Oxford but I see nothing warned at all? Haven’t looked under this storm but hail has been reported as well 

[snowlover2]

Frisky storms here. I’m at work and we had a very close lightning strike that caused the power to flicker.

[snowlover2]

Got home just in time. Round 2 is about to unleash here.

[NWsnowhio]

Surprisingly received text that buses were delayed at our school today due to funnel clouds and potential tornado touchdowns. Did some social media searching and sure enough, footage emerged of what appears to be a tornado between Leipsic and McComb, Ohio in Putnam/Hancock County this afternoon. Damage reported.

https://www.facebook.com/deb.pothast/posts/pfbid0hdCSGHWEAG6kbGhMVMYzAbEGHUtoXe3ve77nF44fSKNpxntoSNmwGWHMGmpPpKa3l

 

 

 

Edited March 5 by NWsnowhio

[NWsnowhio]

The Putnam/Hancock County line is such a bad radar dead zone, too. Right on the far eastern edge of Northern Indiana and far western edge of Cleveland radar sites. 

No warnings or sirens here, but I was looking back at radar scans after receiving the text because I was questioning it all, and the cell in that area between 2:36 and 2:50 p.m. on my Wunderground app did catch my attention when looking at it a bit closer. I don't have any apps to check velocity, but just the shape as it popped up before it merged with other cells was a bit suspicious for hot minute.

One Toledo met calling it a likely landspout at this point. Still, ripped up a house pretty darn good. 

Edited March 5 by NWsnowhio

[NWsnowhio]

Edited March 5 by NWsnowhio

[NWOhioChaser]

2 hours ago, NWsnowhio said:

The Putnam/Hancock County line is such a bad radar dead zone, too. Right on the far eastern edge of Northern Indiana and far western edge of Cleveland radar sites. 

No warnings or sirens here, but I was looking back at radar scans after receiving the text because I was questioning it all, and the cell in that area between 2:36 and 2:50 p.m. on my Wunderground app did catch my attention when looking at it a bit closer. I don't have any apps to check velocity, but just the shape as it popped up before it merged with other cells was a bit suspicious for hot minute.

One Toledo met calling it a likely landspout at this point. Still, ripped up a house pretty darn good. 

For an EF-0 it sure looks pretty photogenic.

[ClicheVortex2014]

NAM is pretty excited about something happening in the southern Texas Panhandle Thursday. NAM is the NAM though. I might believe it if it's still there Thursday morning.

[NWsnowhio]

An interesting little debate about yesterday's landspout/tornado in northwest Ohio.

 

 

[ElectricStorm]

Marginal risks tonight and tomorrow for me here. Overall looks pretty good for some nice rain/storm action though I doubt we'll see much severe here. 

Tomorrow looks iffy for western OK/TX. Depends on how quick the morning round can move out. Could see a few tornadoes though. 

Starting to get a little concerned about Friday though. Storm mode might be questionable but it seems like we could see a volatile environment across LA and SW MS. The HRRR at 48 hours isn't super reliable but right now it's showing several semi-discrete cells in LA. Wouldn't be all that surprised to see an upgrade to enhanced from SPC at some point.

[Hassaywx1223]

12 hours ago, NWsnowhio said:

An interesting little debate about yesterday's landspout/tornado in northwest Ohio.

 

 

To be fair to the national weather services I went back on radar omega and first it’s in a radar dead zone. I did tilt 1 and 2 in basic and super res velocity on inx cle and dtw radar. and the best shots I got was from Detroit radar and that’s marginal to say the least no way to tell from that so I think it wasnt a landspout and actually a tornado it’s very possible as velocity does link up for about 10-15 minutes but that’s an extremely hard call especially with everything looking garden variety yesterday 

Edited March 7 by Hassaywx1223

[NWsnowhio]

33 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said:

To be fair to the national weather services I went back on radar omega and first it’s in a radar dead zone. I did tilt 1 and 2 in basic and super res velocity on inx cle and dtw radar. and the best shots I got was from Detroit radar and that’s marginal to say the least no way to tell from that so I think it wasnt a landspout and actually a tornado it’s very possible as velocity does link up for about 10-15 minutes but that’s an extremely hard call especially with everything looking garden variety yesterday 

Thanks for sharing those. I was hoping somebody would be able to do that.

I was very surprised by a) it actually happening, and b) that it was more impressive looking than I imagined it would be given the general conditions.

Certainly looked a bit beefier than a typical spout would be that we get around these parts a few times a year. And yes, it’s a notoriously terrible spot for radar coverage. Looks like the wind/rating estimates are pretty on point though given your screenshots. Appreciate you chiming in!

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like some new experimental NSSL models have been added to Pivotal. These are showing several discrete cells in OK/TX, while most other CAMs are not

I'm not sold on this solution yet due to the incoming morning convection potentially hurting this setup quite a bit, but certainly need to watch trends tomorrow morning/early afternoon. 

One area I'm interested in for tornado potential is up near the warm front in KS. The 2% doesn't cover that area yet but wouldn't be surprised if they added it in later outlooks. 

Overall doesn't look bad for an early March setup, as long as the morning convection behaves and exits the area quick enough to allow for recovery (big if...)

[OxfordOh_]

This cells startin to look real nasty 

[ElectricStorm]

First watch of the year here. Expecting some decent storms in a few hours but most of the cells in OK have been struggling so far 

[ElectricStorm]

First tornado warning of the day in southern KS

[OxfordOh_]

Tornado warned 

[Chinook]

this one put out 2.50" hail

[ElectricStorm]

Getting some nice rain now with occasional rumbles. Severe event never really materialized here but I'll take it, can't really expect much from an early March event. 

Both 5% tornado areas didn't see anything produce today and I believe that KS cell was the only tor warned cell of the day. Seemed like a pretty good structure day though. 

As for tomorrow I'm thinking E LA and S MS have the best chance for tornado potential, but I have concerns about storm mode and ongoing morning convection hindering this setup. I think the current 5% area looks pretty good for now. Outside chance of a small area of strong tornado potential but can't really know for sure until seeing obs tomorrow morning. 

[Neoncyclone]

Can't get KHDC to load, but there's a supercell starting to mature in LA. Looking pretty good, just south of  Killian, LA.

[ElectricStorm]

Big L for radar coverage today, hope they can get at least one of those up 

Edit: probably won't matter anyway, looks extremely messy. Doubt we see much tornado action 

Edited March 8 by ElectricStorm