SnowloverSid Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Someone on the winter forum was wondering when someone was going to start the spring discussion, so I decided to bite the bullet and begin the spring discussion, covering March 1 to May 31. A sure sign of spring is when posters begin to deplore the sun angle when discussing late- season snowstorms. Today is Ash Wednesday, which falls on Valentine’s Day for the second time since 2018. When I was young, it signaled to me that we were no longer in midwinter but late winter. It is the beginning of Lent, the 40 days (not counting Sundays) before Easter. My Lent diet— or I should say, my attempt at one, has just begun. May it be a fun spring of exciting weather, notably thunderstorms with adrenaline- inducing thunderstorms! 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Spring looks to get off to a very warm start and I am ready for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Spring looks to get off to a very warm start and I am ready for it. Would not be surprised to see a quick start to severe weather season come march! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Acton Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Time to rev up severe weather. NOAA likes it!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 hours ago, George Acton said: Time to rev up severe weather. NOAA likes it!! I'm surprised they went equal chances for Southern California. I've got a small lull for them for the end of the month into March, but then the train continues from my line of thinking. Maybe it's because March is 3.14 inches, but I truly think they get there and even beat their .83 April average before the hose shuts off. If you're keeping count, LA has had 8.72 inches of rain so far this month. Further east, not too much to say. Spring is coming early. I realize there are some still holding out hope for mid-march, but I'm not buying the Alaska high that the CFS keeps churning out. We've had it for a week or so and that could happen, but it will be quickly displaced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Trees are probably going to bloom early this spring with all the warmth being forecasted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Something to monitor is increasing severe weather chances 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Something to monitor is increasing severe weather chances 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Really starting to pay attention to next week. Setup is there for a decent to big event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) Multi-day outbreak appears possible Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to show a powerful mid- to upper-level trough ejecting into the central U.S. by late Tuesday into Wednesday. A deep cyclone is currently progged by most ensemble members to move from the central Great Plains into the Great Lakes vicinity. Preceding this upper trough, an antecedent re-charging of steep lapse rates associated with an elevated mixed layer over the southern High Plains is forecast. A few days of airmass modification, both in terms of ambient temperature and moistening over the Gulf Basin, will occur in wake of frontal passage on Saturday. Northward moisture return beneath the aforementioned EML will probably result in a substantial warm sector by late afternoon Tuesday and into Wednesday farther east. Model run-to-run continuity is such that there is increased confidence in the introduction of 15-percent severe-risk highlights with the expected eastward progression of the trough. Will defer the possibility of an additional area farther east on Thursday until confidence in details related to earlier days becomes more focused. ..Smith.. 02/22/2024 Edited February 22 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 From INDY Tuesday and Wednesday... After two days or warmer and more moist air arriving on southerly winds, The models start to hint at two stronger forcing waves passing across Central Indiana on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Tuesday system appears to be a bit weaker, while the Wednesday system is much more robust, associated with a moderate upper trough and a sharp surface cold front. Thunderstorms may be present as these waves pass as Central Indiana will be in the warm sector. Its very early, but should the pattern hold, severe thunderstorms would be possible. For now, will include pops on Tuesday and Wednesday with a thunderstorm mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Beautiful negative tilt trough on the 200 hour GFS and Euro. 😂 Better enjoy it now before it starts downtrending. This would be for the March 3-5 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Seeing a strong signal for an active first two weeks of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 29 Moderators Share Posted February 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 4 Moderators Share Posted March 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 6 Moderators Share Posted March 6 Perfect timing... 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted March 7 Author Share Posted March 7 12 hours ago, StretchCT said: Perfect timing... This month could be very much like March 1983: very mild to start; then turning cold right after the equinox. That is probably when it will snow. April 1983 still holds the record for monthly snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 7 Moderators Share Posted March 7 Is this a normal look for spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 7 Moderators Share Posted March 7 Euro AIFS also showing end of month cold snap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Euro AIFS also showing end of month cold snap Looking at this setup, the cooler air should last 7-10 days before the pacific floods the continent with mild air again. We actually seem to get a -NAO for a short time if the GFS is right. With what we have seen all year, I imagine it will be displaced relatively quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 3 hours ago, StretchCT said: Euro AIFS also showing end of month cold snap I mean wouldn’t have it any other way warm all winter then cold to delay actual spring weather nothing new the last decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 8 Moderators Share Posted March 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 8 Admin Share Posted March 8 17 hours ago, Hassaywx1223 said: I mean wouldn’t have it any other way warm all winter then cold to delay actual spring weather nothing new the last decade I hear this often repeated, but can't seem to see it in the data. Winter generally runs into April up here, but we are squarely in spring. Here's the last 10 March rankings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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