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Feb 15-16th, Clipper Potential

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Little "tweener" system possible between the two larger threats. In the interest of keeping the discussion cleaner for each, I'm creating this place to discuss it and its impacts. 

GFS/CMC say "yes" - Euro Op run is out to lunch. Would imagine both ENS sets have a mix of hit or nada


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  • Meteorologist

Now that we see the Euro is having some issues right now. This clipper looks rather entertaining! We may even have some convective aspects with this across PA late Thursday.

I also wouldn't be surprised if this ends up a bit further south as well. Much better established blocking pattern and this storm hitting us is the 50/50.

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GFS 24 hour snow totals at hour 78 shows snow more widespread in MA & CT than what the NAM shows.  Will be interesting to see if this storm trends southward like the last storm.


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BTV's forecast discussion mentions that rations should run in the 16-18:1 range.  It will be nice not having to remove concrete snow from my driveway.

As of 248 PM EST Tuesday...Quick moving clipper low remains on track
to affect the region Thursday night into Friday morning. Ahead of
this system, expect increasing clouds on Thursday with periods of
light snow overspreading far western counties toward early evening
as highs top out from the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Model consensus supports a low track east-southeast across the
forecast area with best 850-700 hPa warm thermal advection and
frontogenesis focusing on our south/southwest zones, though everyone
should see a light accumulating snowfall Thursday night. Snow should
taper off fairly quickly into the daylight hours on Friday though
some lingering, persistent snow showers will likely remain across
the northern mountains into Friday afternoon. This will be a lower
density snowfall with snow ratios generally running in the 16-18:1
ballpark, so while the Friday morning commute will see some travel
disruptions, major impacts are not expected. Overall 12-18 hour
amounts should average from 2 to 4 inches with slightly higher
totals in the 3-5/3-6 inch range across the southern SLV,
Adirondacks and possibly the higher terrain of the southern Greens.
At the summits, 6 inch amounts, give or take an inch or so are
certainly plausible by days end on Friday.


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