Poco Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 (edited) 0z gmao said sure! gfs 06z and 12z are trying to pull off a big M B watch for the gmao corollary on 12z euro. Unfortunately I’m still dealing with some crazy stuff. Cheers and happy tracking! Edited January 25 by Poco 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 25 Moderators Share Posted January 25 Time to create some space for the trailing wave that comes diving south out of Canada with some vigor...I'll get some posts moved into this one from the other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 25 Admin Share Posted January 25 Not sure I've seen a storm move due south before. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 hours ago, Poco said: 0z gmao said sure! gfs 06z and 12z are trying to pull off a big M B watch for the gmao corollary on 12z euro. Unfortunately I’m still dealing with some crazy stuff. Cheers and happy tracking! Twin to the 12z GFS actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Euro is vastly different - perhaps doing it's "over phased" thing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Chaotic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 25 Moderators Share Posted January 25 The upper low drops in over Canada and this is what we are following in this thread, right? And it sticks around to the 4th. Or are we just talking about the system circled and not the one x'd out. So which thread does this one belong in... seems to be from a combo of these systems, but a day later. This one is circling the same upper low but is on the third This is also involved with the upper low that is coming in from this system, but is on the 4th On the other hand, the GFS is just sending a clipper like system through to our west and harmlessly out to sea with no upper low over NE/Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 26 minutes ago, StretchCT said: The upper low drops in over Canada and this is what we are following in this thread, right? And it sticks around to the 4th. Or are we just talking about the system circled and not the one x'd out. So which thread does this one belong in... seems to be from a combo of these systems, but a day later. This one is circling the same upper low but is on the third This is also involved with the upper low that is coming in from this system, but is on the 4th On the other hand, the GFS is just sending a clipper like system through to our west and harmlessly out to sea with no upper low over NE/Canada Yep - you got it. LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 But seriously, here are the opener images I started all this brew-ha-ha with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 (edited) And here's a loop from that run - clearly showing TWO systems. And that it's the second parcel that gathers everything together. (this is where I messed up in subsequent threads by allowing people to discuss the first one - even though at first I kept saying NO not that one, this one - and would show the correctly dated one) When that bigger phased storm idea dropped off the radar, I made matters worse by adjusting dates on the discussion thread. I know mods will say it's on them - but I know better and should never have chased dates - something I never did in the past. Call it age related feebleness (or that I didn't mind discussing both storms at once, for reasons I stated on the other thread). As is shown, this idea still exists - that the storm occludes after forming first at DelMarva as a Miller Hybrid (mostly B though) - starts in Clipper land but clearly scoops a separate piece of STJ energy along the way - lingering in N New England before exiting. Now that I've done my self flagellating mea culpa - time to focus (I say to myself) Edited January 25 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I mean - even the pros at WPC mention the multi faceted aspect of these two There are lingering differences with weather focus of a main surface low to track up/off the Eastern Seaboard Sunday into Monday, but the system seems deep enough to warrant a moderate increase in QPF versus WPC continuity. Later, quite a bit of uncertainty develops over the central to eastern U.S. with a series of upper impulses dropping from Canada, albeit in a relatively tranquil weather regime. Accordingly, the WPC forecast was primarily derived from a multi-deterministic model blend valid for Sunday and Monday, transitioning Tuesday and for next Wednesday and Thursday to the more compatible ensemble means amid growing forecast spread and model run to run consistency issues as noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 18z GFS is a lot slower than the Euro and allows the main shortwave to drop into the OH Vly while grabbing the STJ parcel Unlike Euro, it doesn't let the Arctic Jet bleed in too soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 25 Moderators Share Posted January 25 The one behind it looks like some impressive energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 25 Moderators Share Posted January 25 (edited) Hr 159 has me waiting to depart - its a little too close to shore but... Edited January 25 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 (edited) 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: The one behind it looks like some impressive energy It's so weird b/c it gets to the DelMarVa but doesn't light up at all. So it just lingers and waits for that last piece to drop in I guess. Snow over SE PA/NJ for quite a while. Edited January 25 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 25 Moderators Share Posted January 25 This is sad - now I know how my parents felt when I got into insurance 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 25 Moderators Share Posted January 25 Uptons stab at this There is a lot of spread in the guidance with the evolution of the upper air pattern next week behind the storm system. However, it looks highly amplified and blocky by the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 26 Admin Share Posted January 26 Just can't trust any phased solutions beyond D4, not sure that'll ever change, no matter how many model upgrades, nor the the prowess of our pending robot overlords. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 It really is odd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 (edited) Let's move the goalposts - if only to mess with RTC Edited January 26 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 26 Admin Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: It really is odd That's one hell of a ridge axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 26 Admin Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Let's move the goalposts - if only to mess with RTC @Doorman's Nor-Lun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: @Doorman's Nor-Lun? Stretches wreckage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 (edited) It actually is the same vort max dropping in behind the 28th storm. This run, it hooks up with the huge ULL which it then uses to pull into the coast - previously it got shunted hard "right" and not really close at all to the US Huge swing from previous so... Edited January 26 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 26 Admin Share Posted January 26 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: It actually is the same vort max dropping in behind the 28th storm. This run, it hooks up with the huge ULL which it then uses to pull into the coast. Huge swing from previous so... Ample spread on the front side of that ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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