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January 30–February 1, 2024 Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm Potential


Poco

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0z gmao said sure! 

gfs 06z and 12z are trying to pull off a big M B

watch for the gmao corollary on 12z euro.  Unfortunately I’m still dealing with some crazy stuff. Cheers and happy tracking! 

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Edited by Poco
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Time to create some space for the trailing wave that comes diving south out of Canada with some vigor...I'll get some posts moved into this one from the other thread

Screenshot 2024-01-25 at 12.36.59 PM.png

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3 hours ago, Poco said:

0z gmao said sure! 

gfs 06z and 12z are trying to pull off a big M B

watch for the gmao corollary on 12z euro.  Unfortunately I’m still dealing with some crazy stuff. Cheers and happy tracking! 

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IMG_3941.png

IMG_3942.png

Twin to the 12z GFS actually

 image.thumb.png.1eb001c6f54b164d193e4b54e42fedaf.png

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The upper low drops in over Canada and this is what we are following in this thread, right?

500hv.na.png

And it sticks around to the 4th. 

500hv.conus.png

Or are we just talking about the system circled and not the one x'd out. 

image.thumb.png.1d177145d94469e2a95e3be4cea4c3d8.png

 

So which thread does this one belong in... seems to be from a combo of these systems, but a day later. 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_60.png

 

This one is circling the same upper low but is on the third

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_secan_59.png

This is also involved with the upper low that is coming in from this system, but is on the 4th

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_secan_64.png

On the other hand, the GFS is just sending a clipper like system through to our west and harmlessly out to sea with no upper low over NE/Canada

image.thumb.png.1d04b484cc2d384c13763bbc56adbe37.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_25.png

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26 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

The upper low drops in over Canada and this is what we are following in this thread, right?

500hv.na.png

And it sticks around to the 4th. 

500hv.conus.png

Or are we just talking about the system circled and not the one x'd out. 

image.thumb.png.1d177145d94469e2a95e3be4cea4c3d8.png

 

So which thread does this one belong in... seems to be from a combo of these systems, but a day later. 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_60.png

 

This one is circling the same upper low but is on the third

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_secan_59.png

This is also involved with the upper low that is coming in from this system, but is on the 4th

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_secan_64.png

On the other hand, the GFS is just sending a clipper like system through to our west and harmlessly out to sea with no upper low over NE/Canada

image.thumb.png.1d04b484cc2d384c13763bbc56adbe37.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_25.png

Yep - you got it. LOL

Screenshot 2024-01-21 140015.png

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And here's a loop from that run - clearly showing TWO systems. And that it's the second parcel that gathers everything together. (this is where I messed up in subsequent threads by allowing people to discuss the first one - even though at first I kept saying NO not that one, this one - and would show the correctly dated one) 

When that bigger phased storm idea dropped off the radar, I made matters worse by adjusting dates on the discussion thread. I know mods will say it's on them - but I know better and should never have chased dates - something I never did in the past. Call it age related feebleness (or that I didn't mind discussing both storms at once, for reasons I stated on the other thread). 

As is shown, this idea still exists - that the storm occludes after forming first at DelMarva as a Miller Hybrid (mostly B though) - starts in Clipper land but clearly scoops a separate piece of STJ energy along the way - lingering in N New England before exiting. 

Now that I've done my self flagellating mea culpa - time to focus (I say to myself) 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_fh186-276.gif

Edited by Undertakerson2.0
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I mean - even the pros at WPC mention the multi faceted aspect of these two 

There are lingering differences with weather focus of a main surface low to track up/off the Eastern Seaboard Sunday into Monday, but the system seems deep enough to warrant a moderate increase in QPF versus WPC continuity. Later, quite a bit of uncertainty develops over the central to eastern U.S. with a series of upper impulses dropping from Canada, albeit in a relatively tranquil weather regime. Accordingly, the WPC forecast was primarily derived from a multi-deterministic model blend valid for Sunday and Monday, transitioning Tuesday and for next Wednesday and Thursday to the more compatible ensemble means amid growing forecast spread and model run to run consistency issues as noted.

 

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2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

The one behind it looks like some impressive energy

500hv.conus.png

It's so weird b/c it gets to the DelMarVa but doesn't light up at all. 

So it just lingers and waits for that last piece to drop in I guess. Snow over SE PA/NJ for quite a while. 

Edited by Undertakerson2.0
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Uptons stab at this

There is a lot of spread in the
guidance with the evolution of the upper air pattern next week
behind the storm system. However, it looks highly amplified
and blocky by the end of the week.
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Just can't trust any phased solutions beyond D4, not sure that'll ever change, no matter how many model upgrades, nor the the prowess of our pending robot overlords.

gfs_z500a_namer_fh126_trend.thumb.gif.a986a199070cc7413944e117fe2ab4da.gif

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It actually is the same vort max dropping in behind the 28th storm. This run, it hooks up with the huge ULL which it then uses to pull into the coast - previously it got shunted hard "right" and not really close at all to the US 

Huge swing from previous so...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh126-198.gif

Edited by Undertakerson2.0
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Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

It actually is the same vort max dropping in behind the 28th storm. This run, it hooks up with the huge ULL which it then uses to pull into the coast. 

Huge swing from previous so...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh126-198.gif

Ample spread on the front side of that ridge. 

 

24020200_2600 (1).gif

24020200_2600.gif

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