January 7-12, 2024 | Severe Weather

[ElectricStorm]

Well looks like the first major severe weather event of the year is here. Marginal risk in Texas today but probably won't be much. Main threat looks to be tomorrow and Tuesday with enhanced risks up for both. 

10 hatched tornado area for tomorrow as well. 

Rare Day 3 update upgrades to enhanced 

Should be an interesting one

Edited January 8 by ElectricStorm

[Neoncyclone]

I don't think we're going to see much in the way of tornadoes until late tonight into the AM, that being said if we see a confluence band like this tonight those pre-frontal storms are going to be in an absolutely insane environment. 

 

[ElectricStorm]

Spoiler

Mesoscale Discussion 0017
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Southwest Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 081854Z - 082100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are continuing to slowly intensify, with the
   issuance of a tornado watch likely in the next 1-3 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue to intensify across
   parts of east TX and western LA, mainly along and north of a surface
   warm front that extends from north of HOU to east of ACT.  To the
   south of the front, surface dewpoints have risen into the mid/upper
   60s, with MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg.  VAD profiles near the
   warm front show very strong low-level vertical shear with 0-3km SRH
   values of 500 and 900 m2/s2 at HGX and LCH.  

   Thus far, thunderstorms have been elevated with primarily a large
   hail threat.  Recent CAM solutions suggest that continued daytime
   heating will begin to aid convective development along the immediate
   warm front to the west of HOU in the next couple of hours, which
   would potentially have a greater risk of surface-based supercells
   and an attendant threat of tornadoes - along with large hail and
   damaging winds.  This area is being closely monitored for convective
   development and potential tornado watch issuance.

 

[ElectricStorm]

First tornado watch of the year is up now including Houston, where the championship game is tonight. One warning up now as well 

[cer5059]

 

[Neoncyclone]

Someone made a real-time deep learning model for tornadoes, and it verified.. in real-time earlier. 

 

Edited January 8 by Neoncyclone

[Neoncyclone]

Newest watch is up, some pretty serious probabilities. 

[Neoncyclone]

Wow, the entire line is embedded supercells this morning.

 

Edited January 9 by Neoncyclone

[ElectricStorm]

15 tornado reports and 227 wind reports so far today, quite an active day for January 

[Neoncyclone]

Woah, large day 3 enhanced risk.. 

Quote

SPC AC 100826

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO
   SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few
   strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday
   through Friday evening.

   ...Discussion...
   Models continue to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will proceed
   Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a
   vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the
   southern Great Plains.  It still appears that the center of the
   growing cyclone will undergo a period of very rapid deepening across
   the lower Ohio Valley during the day, perhaps with minimum surface
   pressures falling in excess of 15 mb in 12 hours, before continuing
   to deepen while migrating northeastward into the lower Great Lakes
   region by late Friday night.

   Associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields is forecast to
   include a developing swath of 90-120+ kt southwesterly flow at 500
   mb across the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the
   Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period.  In the 850-700
   mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast
   to overspread the inland advancing warm sector.

   There remains some uncertainty just how expansive of an unstable
   warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and
   moistening becoming sufficient for weak boundary-layer
   destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through
   parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day.

   More substantive low-level moistening seems probable off the north
   central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through
   southern Atlantic Coast states.  It appears that this may remain
   south of the mid-level cold pool, with relatively warm layers aloft,
   even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing
   east-northeastward across coastal areas, possibly inhibiting
   destabilization.

   However, strong to severe thunderstorm development initiating
   Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into lower
   Mississippi Valley may spread east/northeast of the Mississippi
   River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening.  Thereafter, it
   appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will
   develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the
   Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening.  Near the southern
   periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the
   primary focus for organized storm development.  Otherwise, models
   suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east
   central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon,
   before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late
   Friday evening.

   Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this
   environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development
   with a risk for strong tornadoes.  Otherwise, the evolution of at
   least a small organized cluster might also be possible, accompanied
   by potential for very strong and damaging convective gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

 

Edited January 10 by Neoncyclone

[ClicheVortex2014]

Not terribly impressed with this coming event. Shear is very strong but mid-level lapse rates look pathetic and the unstable warm sector looks small. 

[ElectricStorm]

10 hatched tornado area added on the new Day 1

Also a 10 hatched on the new Day 2 but there's so much uncertainty there I wouldn't be surprised if it gets downgraded 

[Neoncyclone]

Wow dewpoints are like 60 degrees max right now here, decent couplet in AR. Heading for populated areas. 

 

[Neoncyclone]

Could see our first confirmed tornado of the event this morning, looks like it'll track about 10 miles south of Rolling Fork.