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Jan 3-5, 2024 | Winter Storm Potential


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  • Admin

Trying to keep the dates narrow to allow for other threads. Not saying it's all of sudden rapid fire storms, but there's some possibilities out there.

EPS doesn't look great, but that spread INVOF the Ohio and Mississippi rivers confluence is the focus.







Sure looks like it should slide harmlessly west to east, but who knows.  Models are really struggling beyond D5.


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  • The title was changed to Jan 2-4rd, 2024 | Winter Storm Potential
Sterling agrees

An expansive, slow-moving upper low from earlier in the week will
finally be in the process of exiting the Eastern Seaboard on
Saturday. The presence of these lower heights aloft will keep
residual shower chances in the forecast. Most notably, this is more
favored east of U.S. 15, with snow showers along the Allegheny
Front. Moisture is rather scant which would keep any precipitation
amounts on the lighter end. While clouds should continue to fill out
the skies, there may be some periods of sunshine as the system exits
the area. With a strong coastal low south of Nova Scotia, gradients
remain potent enough to keep brisk west-northwesterly winds in the
forecast. Afternoon gusts could reach 20 to 25 mph, locally a tad
higher across the Allegheny ridges. High temperatures stay fairly
close to late December climatology, generally in the 40s with 30s
across the mountains.

To close out the weekend and the year, this mentioned system should
continue to push further out to sea. Sunday will bring a brief
period of shortwave ridging through the area ahead of the next
trough. Global models differ on timing of this upstream feature, but
generally agree on its positively-tilted nature. The wave of low
pressure and associated cold front push through late Sunday (New
Year`s Eve) into Monday morning (New Year`s Day). Any precipitation
chances appear largely relegated to the terrain. A number of global
ensembles show a deep surface low evolving out over the Atlantic.
However, at this point, this would just increase wind fields early
next week. The guidance agree on a slow but steady cooling trend
into the start of the new year. However, this would just keep
readings seasonable and rather close to climatology.

Edited by Wtkidz
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  • Admin

There's kinda 2 threats in this time frame. Debating whether it's worth it to separate into a 1-3rd and a 4-5th thread. It's just they are so low probability, I'm not sure it even matters.

First "threat"


Second chance 


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  • The title was changed to Jan 3-5, 2024 | Winter Storm Potential
  • Admin

Some bombers in there.  Hard to buy the phased solutions though, but there's at least a modicum of consistency in the models, and there's *some* possibility for a snow storm.  The danger, is that it ends up another warm storm.


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