Admin MaineJay Posted December 25, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 25, 2023 Trying to keep the dates narrow to allow for other threads. Not saying it's all of sudden rapid fire storms, but there's some possibilities out there. EPS doesn't look great, but that spread INVOF the Ohio and Mississippi rivers confluence is the focus. ECMWF GFS Sure looks like it should slide harmlessly west to east, but who knows. Models are really struggling beyond D5. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 25, 2023 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Much further south than previous runs. However it will change several times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 26, 2023 Trof axis is likely too far east as depicted, but there's lots of details that would also need to be ironed out. So we wait. Not a terrible look though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 26, 2023 GEFS seen to be leaning towards a coastal scraper. Funny thing is that there looks like less spread here, than the system 3.5 days ahead of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Nice to see the storm. What it produces? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted December 26, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 26, 2023 3 hours ago, Wtkidz said: Nice to see the storm. What it produces? Desperation, depression, and excessive consumption of alcohol? 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 27, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 27, 2023 I'll maintain the thread in case of a miracle, but headwinds are increasing on this one. Still can't make the turn. As is the case with the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 (edited) Sterling agrees .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An expansive, slow-moving upper low from earlier in the week will finally be in the process of exiting the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. The presence of these lower heights aloft will keep residual shower chances in the forecast. Most notably, this is more favored east of U.S. 15, with snow showers along the Allegheny Front. Moisture is rather scant which would keep any precipitation amounts on the lighter end. While clouds should continue to fill out the skies, there may be some periods of sunshine as the system exits the area. With a strong coastal low south of Nova Scotia, gradients remain potent enough to keep brisk west-northwesterly winds in the forecast. Afternoon gusts could reach 20 to 25 mph, locally a tad higher across the Allegheny ridges. High temperatures stay fairly close to late December climatology, generally in the 40s with 30s across the mountains. To close out the weekend and the year, this mentioned system should continue to push further out to sea. Sunday will bring a brief period of shortwave ridging through the area ahead of the next trough. Global models differ on timing of this upstream feature, but generally agree on its positively-tilted nature. The wave of low pressure and associated cold front push through late Sunday (New Year`s Eve) into Monday morning (New Year`s Day). Any precipitation chances appear largely relegated to the terrain. A number of global ensembles show a deep surface low evolving out over the Atlantic. However, at this point, this would just increase wind fields early next week. The guidance agree on a slow but steady cooling trend into the start of the new year. However, this would just keep readings seasonable and rather close to climatology. && Edited December 27, 2023 by Wtkidz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 27, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 27, 2023 A few hail Mary's in there, not widespread, but locally impactful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 4 hours ago, MaineJay said: A few hail Mary's in there, not widespread, but locally impactful. Is this one of those memory games where you have to match 2? 🤪 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted December 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 27, 2023 12z GEM certainly provides plenty of room to come north... incoming vort though ends up pushing it too far east to be impactful...but certainly not a bad look aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 27, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 27, 2023 There's kinda 2 threats in this time frame. Debating whether it's worth it to separate into a 1-3rd and a 4-5th thread. It's just they are so low probability, I'm not sure it even matters. First "threat" Second chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 27, 2023 (edited) I'm in FL from the 2nd to the 5th. Lock in a storm. Preferably not on the 5th, Edited December 27, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Nothing promising but a long ways to go here. Let's just pray we don't go from warm wet to cold dry/ suppression depression. Which looks like a possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted December 28, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 28, 2023 12z Euro says "Don't give up the ship just yet..." But when looking aloft...it's pretty sloppy... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 29, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted December 29, 2023 We have a hit! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 29, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 29, 2023 Still trying to "venn diagram" lift, moisture, and cold, but it's hard to find much of an area of overlap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 29, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 29, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 29, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 29, 2023 Some bombers in there. Hard to buy the phased solutions though, but there's at least a modicum of consistency in the models, and there's *some* possibility for a snow storm. The danger, is that it ends up another warm storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 29, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 29, 2023 Still meh in EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted December 29, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 29, 2023 (edited) Canadian says...."bombs away" shedding 30mb in 24 hours Not a widespread snow maker, but plowable for WV and interior NH/ME Edited December 29, 2023 by telejunkie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 12z Ukie appears to be showing a more organized system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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