January 3-5, 2024 Winter Storm Potential

[snowlover2]

I normally wouldn't start a thread this far out but we need something to track. Also i remember seeing in the LR winter thread that there is BSR support for something around or maybe just after this timeframe and GFS is consistently showing a storm here. Below is the 12z GFS today. Needless to say this will change and hopefully won't just disappear.

Edited December 29, 2023 by snowlover2

[RobB]

3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

I normally wouldn't start a thread this far out but we need something to track. Also i remember seeing in the LR winter thread that there is BSR support for something around or maybe just after this timeframe and GFS is consistently showing a storm here. Below is the 12z GFS today. Needless to say this will change and hopefully won't just disappear.

Yeah, long way out but there is such a dearth of anything remotely interesting to track, might as well start here...

[Penn State]

16 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

I normally wouldn't start a thread this far out but we need something to track. Also i remember seeing in the LR winter thread that there is BSR support for something around or maybe just after this timeframe and GFS is consistently showing a storm here. Below is the 12z GFS today. Needless to say this will change and hopefully won't just disappear.

I love this timeframe.. the BSR looked just about as good as can be hoped for. Should have an injection of cold air around this period too. Just need the southern branch to be active (let’s go MJO!) and something to dive in from the north to energize - also on the BSR. That GFS depiction was nice.. needs some tweaking, but man.. this could be a banger for all of us on the forum if it’s right.

[Crowbar]

Watched a video of the AccuWeather guy (senior moment - can't remember his name) who is saying that there's potential for a storm in our area during that time frame.  He seems to think that it won't go past Jan 5, IIRC, so it may be something in the couple of days after the new year. 

[snowlover2]

1 hour ago, Crowbar said:

Watched a video of the AccuWeather guy (senior moment - can't remember his name) who is saying that there's potential for a storm in our area during that time frame.  He seems to think that it won't go past Jan 5, IIRC, so it may be something in the couple of days after the new year. 

Bernie Rayno?

[Crowbar]

1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

Bernie Rayno?

Yep, Bernie Rayno, thanks.  Amazing how I can remember trivial crap from 40 years ago but can't remember the video I watched yesterday. 

[Pghsnow]

[snowlover2]

Well 18z GFS was certainly a fun run. 

[snowlover2]

Kinda scary how that run was eerily similar to the storm 19 years ago today that i posted about here.

 

[Cdfarabaugh]

Talk about long duration.......too bad it's Hr 300+ goofus fantasy just adding to my 275" of digital snow

[Pghsnow]

Just now, snowlover2 said:

Kinda scary how that run was eerily similar to the storm 19 years ago today that i posted about here.

 

Reminded me of the Feb 2010 storm track. A storm I left my wife at home for because I had a church retreat. She ends up injuring her clavicle from trying to shovel 24 inches... She said never again will you leave me home alone... Well I am going to San Diego for work from Jan 2-6... If this storm happens she will not be happy... 😂

[Jaf316]

1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

Well 18z GFS was certainly a fun run. 

Yes, please!

Edited December 23, 2023 by Jaf316

[Penn State]

Something interesting.. Two dates on the CPC 8-14 analogs are late 1995 and early 1983. About 2 weeks after the dates listed on the analogs, were 2 major NESIS storms. Coincidence? Probably.. me considering it.. 

 

 

[snowlover2]

17 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Something interesting.. Two dates on the CPC 8-14 analogs are late 1995 and early 1983. About 2 weeks after the dates listed on the analogs, were 2 major NESIS storms. Coincidence? Probably.. me considering it.. 

 

 

Never forget the 1996 one. If memory serves it started as a cold rain here in the morning as i got to work at 11am at a restaurant i worked at at that time about a 5 minute drive from my home. Only had to work until 2 and then go back at 5pm. Well by 12:30 it was heavy snow and pretty much a blizzard by that point. Of course we were dead that day so everyone was sent home except the 1 kitchen person, bartender and waitress who were scheduled until 5pm. Took me around 45 minutes to get back home. Finally got a call somewhere from 3-3:30 saying they were closing the restaurant and to stay home. Felt bad for the 3 that were still there and had to close everything. That was a crazy storm even for us in western Ohio.

[Penn State]

8 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Never forget the 1996 one. If memory serves it started as a cold rain here in the morning as i got to work at 11am at a restaurant i worked at at that time about a 5 minute drive from my home. Only had to work until 2 and then go back at 5pm. Well by 12:30 it was heavy snow and pretty much a blizzard by that point. Of course we were dead that day so everyone was sent home except the 1 kitchen person, bartender and waitress who were scheduled until 5pm. Took me around 45 minutes to get back home. Finally got a call somewhere from 3-3:30 saying they were closing the restaurant and to stay home. Felt bad for the 3 that were still there and had to close everything. That was a crazy storm even for us in western Ohio.

It’s cool to hear that perspective.. I was only about 8 at the time, but I can remember watching it out of my Grandmother’s house. I never really realized the impacts stretched to Ohio, even though that’s evident on the snow map lol.. The only cool story that I have.. that ‘96 storm is what got me into weather. My mom, unbeknownst to me.. saved a snowball in the freezer from that storm. She told me about it in 2015.. shortly before the Blizzard of 2016. We threw the ‘96 snowball in our backyard on the eve of the ‘16 storm. Coincidentally, we ended with 33” in both storms lol 

And.. If anyone’s wondering if we saved a snowball from the 2016 storm, the answer is yes! It’s tucked in our deep freeze ready for release on the eve of the next big one. 🤓

[Jaf316]

28 minutes ago, Penn State said:

It’s cool to hear that perspective.. I was only about 8 at the time, but I can remember watching it out of my Grandmother’s house. I never really realized the impacts stretched to Ohio, even though that’s evident on the snow map lol.. The only cool story that I have.. that ‘96 storm is what got me into weather. My mom, unbeknownst to me.. saved a snowball in the freezer from that storm. She told me about it in 2015.. shortly before the Blizzard of 2016. We threw the ‘96 snowball in our backyard on the eve of the ‘16 storm. Coincidentally, we ended with 33” in both storms lol 

And.. If anyone’s wondering if we saved a snowball from the 2016 storm, the answer is yes! It’s tucked in our deep freeze ready for release on the eve of the next big one. 🤓

The 96 storm is my all-time favorite. I was living in NYC at the time. The city was about as shut-down as I've ever seen it. I remember walking home from the movies that night in the middle of Amsterdam Ave (there were no cars out). We already had at least a foot on the ground and it was just pouring snow. Suddenly the sky lit up as bright as day and a huge clap of thunder echoed off the buildings. It was amazing.

[snowlover2]

1 hour ago, Penn State said:

It’s cool to hear that perspective.. I was only about 8 at the time, but I can remember watching it out of my Grandmother’s house. I never really realized the impacts stretched to Ohio, even though that’s evident on the snow map lol.. The only cool story that I have.. that ‘96 storm is what got me into weather. My mom, unbeknownst to me.. saved a snowball in the freezer from that storm. She told me about it in 2015.. shortly before the Blizzard of 2016. We threw the ‘96 snowball in our backyard on the eve of the ‘16 storm. Coincidentally, we ended with 33” in both storms lol 

And.. If anyone’s wondering if we saved a snowball from the 2016 storm, the answer is yes! It’s tucked in our deep freeze ready for release on the eve of the next big one. 🤓

The more i thought about it made me realize it wasn't that storm i was thinking of but mine i do believe happened that same winter.

[snowlover2]

0z GFS pretty much looked like a clipper. Just northern energy but no southern energy to make anything big out of it.

[SnowloverSid]

6 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

Well 18z GFS was certainly a fun run. 

Wow, even St. Louis gets in on the action. I want to thank the GFS for their belated Christmas gift to me: digital snow!!

[SnowloverSid]

3 hours ago, Penn State said:

It’s cool to hear that perspective.. I was only about 8 at the time, but I can remember watching it out of my Grandmother’s house. I never really realized the impacts stretched to Ohio, even though that’s evident on the snow map lol.. The only cool story that I have.. that ‘96 storm is what got me into weather. My mom, unbeknownst to me.. saved a snowball in the freezer from that storm. She told me about it in 2015.. shortly before the Blizzard of 2016. We threw the ‘96 snowball in our backyard on the eve of the ‘16 storm. Coincidentally, we ended with 33” in both storms lol 

And.. If anyone’s wondering if we saved a snowball from the 2016 storm, the answer is yes! It’s tucked in our deep freeze ready for release on the eve of the next big one. 🤓

Make sure, when you release the snowball, the storm gets the approval of Snobal. If Snobal says the storm is coming, then it most certainly is!

[bigben89]

14 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

Well 18z GFS was certainly a fun run. 

Yea, I’ll take that one.

[snowlover2]

12z GFS

[Pghsnow]

For the 7th

[BuckeyeGal]

Lotssss to track potentially. 😁 Including a clipper after the snowy tail end of the gross rain this week!

[snowlover2]

0z GFS