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December 17-19, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Storm


Penn State

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Over the past several days, the GFS has depicted an impactful storm for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on or around December 18th. This timeframe has been one of interest as it has the potential to coincide with a transition to colder temperatures in the East. The MJO is forecasted to be exiting its warmer phases with a return to its colder phases of 7 and 8.

In terms of teleconnections, signals are mixed. The AO looks likely to be negative or going negative around the 18th. The NAO looks to be positive, but may be transitioning more negative during this timeframe. The PNA looks to be neutral, but may be transitioning more positive. I wouldn’t call the teleconnections unfavorable; however, I wouldn’t call it a screaming signal either. 

Blocking seems to be a feature of this timeframe as model depictions indicate something slower.. and some individual runs have even shown a loop. Intensity also seems to be a feature thus far. Individual members of the EPS have shown pressures as low as 949mb just off the coast. If analogs are any indication.. these features may have legs 🧐. The #3 analog is December 20, 1986.. which, according to the LA Times, is associated with a storm system that delivered strong winds, heavy snow, and flooding in the Northeast. 

Personally, I have been waiting to see some ensemble agreement.. and there is a congregation of low pressures, in particular, on the EPS during this timeframe. Of course, this could change, but as of now I think it’s safe to say there’s a storm signal for this period. For what it’s worth.. I like this opportunity, although it won’t get too much attention until our current storm is resolved. Hopefully it will come on the heels of some of that infamous back-end snow (but that’s impossible.. so.. 😜) At any rate.. full details and graphics will be available in the spoiler. 

Happy Tracking! 🤓

12z EPS (Hour 270)

IMG_0458.thumb.png.b25ed955fd7c3241bc6a802540abc62a.png

12z GEFS (Hour 270)

IMG_0461.thumb.png.43dbdbb0ec428e17e7e364c79446e692.png

12z CMCE (Hours 270)

IMG_0460.thumb.png.79e262d7aa8afe9b798fb77bc55f6635.png

GFS Model Trend 

trend-gfs-2023120618-f264.prateptype_cat-imp.conus.gif.4f2eb2971d4ed6e0695f5ad0149666ee.gif

Spoiler

Ensembles 

12z EPS (Hours 228-312) 

floop-epsens-2023120612.sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.gif.642fa5d7c1e2b17f7aad95def9d7d2b3.gif

12z GEFS (Hours 228-312)

floop-gefsens-2023120612.sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.gif.7e8d43db295a48e0fda84d9b3f9dcb71.gif

12z CMCE (Hours 228-312) 

floop-cmceens-2023120612.sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.gif.24f9733d72ae66fd1e81965bd24b15c6.gif

Teleconnections 

AO

IMG_0463.thumb.png.ec019a741aa76c9b9cf424d2609d766b.png

NAO

IMG_0464.thumb.png.81f8d2dd30c295ced56e42ff9de91ade.png

PNA 

IMG_0465.thumb.png.ee8d728d037f7954f6c34bdd9d79b98a.png

MJO

IMG_0462.thumb.png.b4dd63361767bad15fd475e92d30cb7b.png

BSR 

IMG_0469.gif.d338c5ffc7e254bb98a5056649bfa150.gif

CPC 8-14 Day Analog

IMG_0468.thumb.gif.f6a8c0570080df5b066e439c9318da85.gif

Reference to Analog #3

IMG_0466.thumb.jpeg.d370e37a76585bdccb3ca5969aff2a85.jpeg

WPC Forecast Day 7 

IMG_0467.thumb.gif.9da4dde1f2273e00ae0842835b0590ed.gif

 

Edited by Penn State
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To provide a quick morning update.. the overnight model runs were not favorable; however, there's still a signal on the ensembles. The EPS is the strongest as you can clearly make out a contingent of lows along the gulf coast that track to the northeast with some bunching near the Chesapeake. Another positive takeaway from the EPS is the presence of high pressure to the north and west, which is usually a hallmark of east coast storms. You hate for the GFS to lose it.. but it wouldn't be the first time, and it won't be the last. 

floop-epsens-2023120700.sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.gif.e6563923f26b1ef7a40835591ce75b4c.gif

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So.. after painting and agonizing through that Steelers game lol.. I decided to chill out with the 00z models. The GFS.. always interesting.. provides a beautiful looking low in the SE accompanied by a pipeline to the tropics. However.. it never taps the northern stream. What an incredible waste of energy, it’s just a shame. Storm’s there.. so that’s one thing I suppose. Anyways.. just look at that 500mb. Dang. 
IMG_0272.thumb.png.282f3db95714b1b3646d395eccfe0580.png

IMG_0273.thumb.png.abc1f981463781c6bd648217aaa17a23.png

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5 hours ago, Penn State said:

So.. after painting and agonizing through that Steelers game lol.. I decided to chill out with the 00z models. The GFS.. always interesting.. provides a beautiful looking low in the SE accompanied by a pipeline to the tropics. However.. it never taps the northern stream. What an incredible waste of energy, it’s just a shame. Storm’s there.. so that’s one thing I suppose. Anyways.. just look at that 500mb. Dang. 
IMG_0272.thumb.png.282f3db95714b1b3646d395eccfe0580.png

IMG_0273.thumb.png.abc1f981463781c6bd648217aaa17a23.png

As you mentioned, the northern jet is pretty far north. When it does impinge on the CONUS, it seems to dive though the northeast and off the coast.  Would like to see the Hudson Bay vortex digging more southerly instead of stretching SE.  

EPS23121600_0800.gif.b824ab429338167df7a54d4af3975fce.gif

The 0z GEFS show a wide distribution. In fact, there are some north stream only solutions that leave that southern piece way behind.  Still a loooong way out in modeling world, without terribly great consistency.  We don't need to see a banger every run. Enough pieces there to give this time.

  f228(1).thumb.gif.63607e015b8868011575fb66a9aaeaa7.gif

That all said, the Pacific air that is generally dominating right now is a hindrance.  You almost need 2 systems, a predecessor to usher in some cold, then the meat and potatoes.

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6 hours ago, Penn State said:

So.. after painting and agonizing through that Steelers game lol.. I decided to chill out with the 00z models. The GFS.. always interesting.. provides a beautiful looking low in the SE accompanied by a pipeline to the tropics. However.. it never taps the northern stream. What an incredible waste of energy, it’s just a shame. Storm’s there.. so that’s one thing I suppose. Anyways.. just look at that 500mb. Dang. 
IMG_0272.thumb.png.282f3db95714b1b3646d395eccfe0580.png

IMG_0273.thumb.png.abc1f981463781c6bd648217aaa17a23.png

Yeah, what's up with you guys letting us win. It's going to ruin our draft position.

🤣

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2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Yeah, what's up with you guys letting us win. It's going to ruin our draft position.

🤣

Lol.. It's our subtle way of getting back at you for all those years you had Brady. Not again.. No Williams. No Maye. You must forever be stuck with mediocrity, like us! 

Anyways, the 06z GFS looked much better than some previous iterations. Hopefully this trend continues. It's time for a big time event. floop-gfs-2023120806.prateptype_cat-imp.conus.gif.874030a451fa75d97ceb4ed827115676.gif

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6 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This certainly is looking like an interesting time period. I hope we see more storms like this into January and February.

The OPs seem to be on their own with the snow. Not a good signal on the ensembles. 

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3 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

The OPs seem to be on their own with the snow. Not a good signal on the ensembles. 

Yea unfortunately I would be cautious on any snow aspect with this until a few days out. The track is what drew me in overall a ridging pattern in the east with an undercutting low means at least a solid rainstorm potential. There is not a whole lot of cold around during this period but can't rule out an area or two getting in on the fun, where that is at this time is a real guess but nice to see a system like this setup.

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