December 10-12, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Penn State]

At present.. long-range model guidance has hinted at a large scale, impactful storm to form in the Southwest U.S. and eject into the Midwest during the week of December 11th. There’s the potential for a cut-off low to interact with an incoming trough; however, the timing and tilt of that trough is questionable. Likewise, the strength the cut-off low is questionable as well. During the month of November, the storm track has not been favorable for much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, and there hasn’t been much in the way of sustainable cold. To be honest.. I don’t think this storm is likely to produce the wintry impacts that many on this forum wish to see. That doesn’t mean that it won’t be interesting to discuss! I do think there will be some snow and ice.. but it will likely be limited to interior parts of New England. Of course, this could change. It looks like there will be a negative AO, but it will be off its depths. The NAO looks to be more neutral, well off its depths as well. The PNA looks to be neutral or negative; which is just simply unfavorable. Unfortunately, the MJO is in its warmer phases and the BSR shows something further west than would be favorable. Indeed.. bad news is abundant here! At any rate.. the depictions at hour 240 are impressive. More details are available in the spoiler. 

Opportunities are on the horizon! I’m still feeling confident about the second half of December, and at least the first half of January. I have heard rumblings that the polar vortex may weaken around the middle of the month (Judah Cohen on X). That should provide opportunities for arctic intrusions. The MJO looks to be enhanced and primed to round through its colder phases later this month as well. Our El Niño should continue to supply an active southern jet. There are also good indications in terms of blocking. The ingredients are there.. but everything has to come together. In the meantime.. we can enjoy the appetizers! Unfortunately, this is NOT the BIG one 🥱

Regardless.. Happy Tracking 🤓

12z GFS | Hour 240 

12z GDPS | Hour 240 

12z ECMWF | Hour 240 

Spoiler

Teleconnections 

AO

NAO

PNA

MJO 

BSR | December 11th 

CPC 8-14 Day Analogs 

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Penn State

[snowlover2]

29 minutes ago, Penn State said:

The BIG one… or is it? Gulp. 

Stay tuned. Full write-up coming this evening. 

12z GFS | Hour 240 

12z GDPS | Hour 240 

Happy Tracking 🤓

Through yesterday's 18z run GFS had a good looking storm but since it's been cutting off the energy in the SW like the Euro. Still lots of time for this to change.

[Penn State]

2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Through yesterday's 18z run GFS had a good looking storm but since it's been cutting off the energy in the SW like the Euro. Still lots of time for this to change.

Definitely.. What I'm curious about is whether that energy will stall or eject, and whether the northern branch will dig as far south. If it would eject a bit quicker, and the trough digs enough to catch it.. and there's enough cold air.. then we might have something fun to track. I've been looking for a strong H.. which is modeled, but the trough looks to go negative too early for the East. This one's probably fool's gold, but at least its something to talk about. 

[so_whats_happening]

Yea that SW low is going to play havoc on models. It is nice to see there is more consistent EL Nino like modes popping up now, hope it continues.

[Penn State]

Interesting evolution.. lol

[Penn State]

Google’s Graph Cast has an interesting solution. Frame by frame offered in the spoiler. 

 

Spoiler

 

[Penn State]

Severe weather may be a factor too in the SE. That’s a lot of energy. 

[Penn State]

The ICON also has a much different solution heading into this one. It’ll be interesting to see if it’s showing the same at 12z today. 

[bigben89]

I keep seeing a FROPA

[Penn State]

22 minutes ago, bigben89 said:

I keep seeing a FROPA

That’s what the major globals have been showing up to this point. But… 

12z ICON 

[Penn State]

WPC day 7 forecast.. Just for reference. Let’s see how it shifts over the next couple days. 

Edited December 3, 2023 by Penn State

[MaineJay]

East Asia. This would likely correlate at the tail end of the dates.

 

[Penn State]

Those 12z runs.. curveball 😂

[so_whats_happening]

10 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

East Asia. This would likely correlate at the tail end of the dates.

 

Looks like a triple point through 95 corridor. We shall see though but yea looks like quite a severe weather potential in the SE regardless of a snow threat.

[Penn State]

GEFS sliding to the east.. There are more members on the S and E side too. 

[Pghsnow]

[Penn State]

A little GEFS analysis at 18z.. There are more members to the S and E. The red line shows the northern track, which includes the majority of members. The yellow line shows the more southern members. The green circle is the furthest SE member in the range. Just an observation.. not sure that it amounts to much at the moment. 

[Penn State]

Update from Google’s Graph Cast.. Additional frames in spoiler.

 

Spoiler

 

[bigben89]

Latest GFS for this thread's time frame looks like a frontal passage. IMO.

[bigben89]

I'd even take the back end clipper at this point.

Hopefully the cold air can stick around so our local ski resorts can make snow.... fingers crossed.

[bigben89]

*Noticed the thread title changed LOL. What a start to this winter...

[Penn State]

3 hours ago, bigben89 said:

*Noticed the thread title changed LOL. What a start to this winter...

Indeed. There really wasn't a wintry component modeled anywhere in the Northeast from what I could tell. Should be interesting to see what severe weather unfolds, if any. Granted, this is typical for an El Nino winter in December. Eventually, our time will come.. just not for the foreseeable future. BTW.. did you guys get hail on Sunday? We have a few friends that live near Homestead and they had hail. Steelers game was rough. 

[bigben89]

49 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Steelers game was rough. 

Yes. Tomlin needs to go LOL

[Penn State]

6 minutes ago, bigben89 said:

Yes. Tomlin needs to go LOL

He's been a solid coach for quite some time.. but a consistent 9-8 isn't good enough. I agree that it's time for something new.. the team feels stale, unmotivated. One reservation that I have is that I don't have a name readily available to say.. that's the guy I want. I like that Mike McDaniel in Miami. 

[Penn State]

Ruh-Roh