November 19th - 21st, 2023 Severe Weather | The 2nd Season

[Iceresistance]

Even in November, there will be action

Dixie Alley threat on Monday

Edited November 16, 2023 by Iceresistance

[ElectricStorm]

Could have some low-end thunderstorm potential here Sunday but it doesn't look very promising. Haven't had anything since early Oct though so I'll take it. Models don't look very promising, inversion will likely be too strong and moisture and instability are also lacking. Don't see this going back up to a slight risk right now.

[CentralLA_Wx]

It's been pretty quiet here for a while. Very dry since summer with exceptional drought conditions, but did get over an inch of rainfall late last week. Haven't heard thunder since September. 

Looking like Monday has potential to be an active day for central LA (under slight risk right now). HRRR 00z run for Monday afternoon at 3 PM. 

Edited November 19, 2023 by CentralLA_Wx

[CentralLA_Wx]

SPC maintained slight risk with the 1st 2 day outlook but mentioned possibility of a corridor with greater threat with potential for strong tornado. 

[ElectricStorm]

Enhanced risk is up for tomorrow now, including a 10 hatched tor area. A little surprised they went hatched since storm mode still looks questionable but it'll still be a dangerous day regardless 

[CentralLA_Wx]

 

[Chinook]

I expect a tornado threat for Louisiana and the southern half of Mississippi, possibly into Alabama much later in the night. It's possible that Texas doesn't get too much development. I wonder if we will get the situation such that too many cells are interfering with each other, such that the tornado threat is lower. I guess it will be interesting to see if Ryan Hall and company will have a lot to discuss. I'm not really sure if the wind damage threat might be just 15%-ish, as sometimes the wind damage reports are not prevalent, even when the wind fields are strong.

attached: WRF-ARW has one very strong updraft-helicity track. I don't know if one supercell could survive this long, but it sort of doesn't matter.

[ElectricStorm]

0z model runs looked a lot more dangerous than earlier runs did, and certainly supports a 10 hatched. 0z HRRR looks borderline 15 hatched IMO. Wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade later if models continue to uptrend. I could be wrong but I believe there hasn't been a 15 hatched tor area since April 4

[Iceresistance]

Tornado warning north of Winnfield, LA

[ClicheVortex2014]

Definitely a fall setup but the question will be if storms can develop ahead of the line/cold front. Obviously already have that one leading supercell but it looks like the environment is more favorable further south and southwest.

Edited November 20, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[FortySixAnd32]

Looking pretty nasty!!!