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November 19th - 21st, 2023 Severe Weather | The 2nd Season


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Could have some low-end thunderstorm potential here Sunday but it doesn't look very promising. Haven't had anything since early Oct though so I'll take it. Models don't look very promising, inversion will likely be too strong and moisture and instability are also lacking. Don't see this going back up to a slight risk right now.

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It's been pretty quiet here for a while. Very dry since summer with exceptional drought conditions, but did get over an inch of rainfall late last week. Haven't heard thunder since September. 

Looking like Monday has potential to be an active day for central LA (under slight risk right now). HRRR 00z run for Monday afternoon at 3 PM. 


Edited by CentralLA_Wx
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I expect a tornado threat for Louisiana and the southern half of Mississippi, possibly into Alabama much later in the night. It's possible that Texas doesn't get too much development. I wonder if we will get the situation such that too many cells are interfering with each other, such that the tornado threat is lower. I guess it will be interesting to see if Ryan Hall and company will have a lot to discuss. I'm not really sure if the wind damage threat might be just 15%-ish, as sometimes the wind damage reports are not prevalent, even when the wind fields are strong.

attached: WRF-ARW has one very strong updraft-helicity track. I don't know if one supercell could survive this long, but it sort of doesn't matter.


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0z model runs looked a lot more dangerous than earlier runs did, and certainly supports a 10 hatched. 0z HRRR looks borderline 15 hatched IMO. Wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade later if models continue to uptrend. I could be wrong but I believe there hasn't been a 15 hatched tor area since April 4

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  • The title was changed to November 19th - 21st, 2023 Severe Weather | The 2nd Season
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Definitely a fall setup but the question will be if storms can develop ahead of the line/cold front. Obviously already have that one leading supercell but it looks like the environment is more favorable further south and southwest.

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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