Moderators StretchCT Posted October 24, 2023 Moderators Share Posted October 24, 2023 (edited) I want to ignore the Pacific like I used to, but the rate that tropical systems develop here is remarkable and I can't ignore it. So here's the history of Otis... Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 ...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 96.7W ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES The next advisory Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OTIS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.3N 96.9W ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES The advisory from 10pm last night, still a TS at 50mph but now forecast to be NEAR hurricane strength at landfall. Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 ...OTIS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 97.9W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES 10am this morning and it's still a TS but at 70mph. Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 ...OTIS NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 99.1W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES And since 10am this morning, now 4pm, Otis bombed out. Winds increased 55mph and pressure dropped 33mb in 6 hours. Hurricane Otis Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 ...OTIS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...NOW EXPECTED TO BE AT CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY AT LANDFALL... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 99.5W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES Edited October 25, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 24, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 24, 2023 Otis is now forecast to reach 140mph before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 24, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 24, 2023 Here's a longer loop of Otis today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 24, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 24, 2023 Vortex message has winds at 133mph. Highest winds on dropsonde were 163mph at 867 mb Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC) Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 20:38Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307 Storm Name: Otis Storm Number & Year: 18 in 2023 (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 15 A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 20:06:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15.20N 99.53W B. Center Fix Location: 116 statute miles (187 km) to the S (170°) from Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,791m (9,157ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 962mb (28.41 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 140° at 17kts (From the SE at 20mph) F. Eye Character (Undecoded): CIRCULAR G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 116kts (133.5mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the SSW (212°) of center fix at 20:04:30Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 303° at 99kts (From the WNW at 113.9mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the SW (216°) of center fix at 20:04:00Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 106kts (122.0mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the NE (40°) of center fix at 20:08:30Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 135° at 125kts (From the SE at 143.8mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix at 20:09:30Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,063m (10,049ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,089m (10,135ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 125kts (~ 143.8mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (40°) from the flight level center at 20:09:30Z H 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btbucks Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 From a nothing burger to massive storm in very little time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 24, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 24, 2023 All the cat 2 storms to be within 60 miles of Acapulco - there's never been a major hurricane recorded within 60miles of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 24, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 24, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 24, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 24, 2023 Raw T on this is 7 . ADT has a lag when RI is involved. It calculates CI over time and has contraints built in. A score of 7 is just about a Cat 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 25, 2023 7:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 Location: 15.7°N 99.6°W Moving: NNW at 8 mph Min pressure: 941 mb Max sustained: 145 mph crazy. Now forecast to be near Cat5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 25, 2023 Raw T now well into Cat 5 territory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 25, 2023 Monster 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 25, 2023 12z Model data for 0z (Otis is 941mb and 145mph or stronger at 0z). 18z models were markedly deeper but still too weak. Hafs B - 976mb 91kts HAfs A - 976mb 91kts HMON - 977mb 73kts HWRF - 981mb 79 kts GFS - 969 mb 71 kts Euro - 995mb 49kts. (18z was 993mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 25, 2023 The gravity waves it's sending out on the visible right before night are incredible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 25, 2023 Officially a Cat Five now. It seems to be moving along the right side of the cone too, which isn't a good thing for Acapulco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Mac Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Dear God. I can only imagine the surge into Acapulco Bay...it's just a giant bowl surrounded by mountains. Follow that up with feet of rainfall flooding back down the mountains into the bay. They never get these storms, they are probably totally unprepared. Not to mention that there has hardly been any warning since this thing exploded so fast. It's probably already too late to get people out since the weather has already begun to deteriorate there. This REALLY may be a worst case scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 It’s wild to me how fast this intensified. I saw it earlier as it was first named and kind of dismissed it not following up. This has to be some kind of record or close to one for RI… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 25, 2023 Admin Share Posted October 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Rich Mac said: Dear God. I can only imagine the surge into Acapulco Bay...it's just a giant bowl surrounded by mountains. Follow that up with feet of rainfall flooding back down the mountains into the bay. They never get these storms, they are probably totally unprepared. Not to mention that there has hardly been any warning since this thing exploded so fast. It's probably already too late to get people out since the weather has already begun to deteriorate there. This REALLY may be a worst case scenario. "This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday. There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico." https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep18/ep182023.discus.012.shtml? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted October 25, 2023 Admin Share Posted October 25, 2023 https://www.threads.net/@mikebettes/post/Cy0dJfbrpHV/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ== What a monster. Acapulco got the full brunt of the north east quadrant. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted October 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted October 25, 2023 9 hours ago, StretchCT said: 12z Model data for 0z (Otis is 941mb and 145mph or stronger at 0z). 18z models were markedly deeper but still too weak. Hafs B - 976mb 91kts HAfs A - 976mb 91kts HMON - 977mb 73kts HWRF - 981mb 79 kts GFS - 969 mb 71 kts Euro - 995mb 49kts. (18z was 993mb) Graphic form... 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 25, 2023 There's chatter that this is the first Cat 5 cyclone to make landfall as a Cat 5 in the Pacific. Certainly in the Eastern Pacific as this is the first Cat 5 to hit Mexico on the Pacific side. Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 125 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 ...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO... Satellite imagery indicates that Otis has made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico around 125 AM CDT (0625 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 165 mph (270 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated at 923 mb (27.26 inches). Otis is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. SUMMARY OF 125 AM CDT...0625 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8 99.9W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Kelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 25, 2023 Washington Post article on Otis, gifted so all can read. Notes the record rapid intensification. I've read other sources that say Patricia still holds the record, but Phil is an expert. I'm not sure of the caveat of the Northern Eastern Pacific when Patricia held the previous record of the entire Pacific and Otis has now surpassed it. Also Otis has become the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the Pacific, and the strongest to hit Mexico. https://wapo.st/3Fwx4di Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 25, 2023 Here's a list of the most intense landfalling Pacific hurricanes. I'm thinking the term hurricane is key here so that it excludes Western Pacific typhoons, and maybe that's why Phil is qualifying it as North East Pacific. Interestingly, Lidia from this year is the fourth strongest to hit Mexico, after Otis, Patricia and Madeline. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/10/cat-4-lidia-is-mexicos-3rd-strongest-landfalling-pacific-hurricane-on-record/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 25, 2023 Indeed, Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 and Super Typhoon Meranti in 2016 had 190mph winds at landfall in the Philippines. Goni from 2020 holds the record with 195mph 1 minute sustained winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 25, 2023 Good sat view of landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 25, 2023 AI-RI from CIMSS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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