Moderators StretchCT Posted September 5, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 5, 2023 (edited) Jova was named overnight Tropical Storm Jova Advisory Number 3...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023 Corrected movement ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM JOVA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 106.9W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES Jova has a pretty clear shot NW into a light/moderate shear environment with favorable water temps. Not sure if that shear in the NW is moving out or not, but Jova makes it to Cat three before hitting cooler waters on this forecast. AI-RI is pretty impressive with a Max Potential of 148kts. 65+% chance of Rapid Intensification is pretty strong too. Indeed the NHC is bullish on intensity with it nearing 100mph in less than 36 hrs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 13.1N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 13.4N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 14.1N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.1N 112.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.2N 115.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 17.5N 117.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 21.3N 124.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 23.6N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH Edited September 11, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 6, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 6, 2023 Went from TS to 85mph in 24 hrs. 1004mb to 979. Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 ...JOVA BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 109.6W ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 6, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 6, 2023 9:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 6Location: 14.2°N 110.6°WMoving: WNW at 13 mphMin pressure: 972 mbMax sustained: 105 mph That escalated fast - look at the eye. Has to be 120mph now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 6, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 6, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 6, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 6, 2023 (edited) 3:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 6Location: 14.9°N 111.7°WMoving: WNW at 15 mphMin pressure: 953 mbMax sustained: 130 mph Since it was named at 9UTC yesterday, 36 hrs, the winds have increased 90mph. Edited September 6, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 Current raw T# is an astounding 7.7. Keep in mind there are built in restraints to how the adj t and CI T are calculated. It can only increase at predefined capped rates, otherwise it just looks foolish. But 7.7 CI would equate to somewhere around 160-165 kts, or 185-190mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 Goodnight Jova - now RawT 7.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 CAT 5, progged to go to 175MPH 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 ...JOVA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 113.0W ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 15.7N 113.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 16.4N 115.1W 150 KT 175 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 17.6N 117.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 18.7N 120.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 21.4N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 22.8N 127.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 24.6N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 25.5N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 MIMIC last 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 What an absolute beast of a storm.. and to think it was just named a couple days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: What an absolute beast of a storm.. and to think it was just named a couple days ago. WOW impressive eye wall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 19 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: WOW impressive eye wall! I'm not sure that super typhoon Saola earlier in August looked this good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 Jova back to Cat 4, by 1mph. Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023 ...POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE JOVA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 115.7W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 9, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 9, 2023 At 9UTC Sept 7, Jova was 160mph and 929mb. By 21 UTC Sept 8, Jova was 85mph and 980mb. Currently, around 0z Sept 9, Jova is likely closer to 75mph and still looks better than Lee right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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