September 2nd to 30th, 2023 | Severe Weather Sequence

[Iceresistance]

Just as it went away, it's back again.

 

@ClicheVortex2014, need to watch for Dry Thunderstorms.

[Iceresistance]

@ElectricStorm

Edited September 5, 2023 by Iceresistance

[Iceresistance]

@ElectricStorm

Wasn't expecting this

[ElectricStorm]

Small line of decently strong storms came through a little while ago. Can't really ask for much more for a marginal risk day

[ElectricStorm]

Storms trying to redevelop right over me. Bonus round 

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

On 9/4/2023 at 8:12 AM, Iceresistance said:

Just as it went away, it's back again.

 

@ClicheVortex2014, need to watch for Dry Thunderstorms.

There were a few dry thunderstorms that day, but Borger did received 0.03" of rain so they weren't entirely dry. Thankfully no fires were started by the lightning, but there were a couple wildfires.

Had a severe thunderstorm warning in the northeast TX Panhandle today where surface temps were around 108 degrees. 2000-2100 J/kg DCAPE there... and for reference, around 1200 J/kg is considered favorable for strong to severe wind gusts. 

Record high temperatures for the month of September were set at Amarillo and Borger today. Looks like Amarillo got up to 105 degrees, beating the old record for September of 103. Borger got up to 108 degrees, beating the old record for September of 106. Hopefully this will be the last 100 degree day of the year. I think we're up to 24 now.

Edited September 7, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Panhandle magic is back. Had a 2.5" hail report in the Oklahoma Panhandle earlier. Now we have another cell warned for 2" hail.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Right-moving supercells moving to the SSW

 

Edited September 10, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Mammoth supercell to my southeast

[ClicheVortex2014]

My view

[Iceresistance]

@ClicheVortex2014How is this not tornado warned??

(Removed the Severe Thunderstorm Warning shading for a better view)

Edited September 11, 2023 by Iceresistance

[Iceresistance]

Just posted this, from September 5th.

 

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Iceresistance
Wrong Date

[Iceresistance]

The Plot Thickens for next week from the SPC:

 Models show split flow over
   the West evolving into a larger-scale trough potentially by midweek
   next week.  A more active pattern for severe may develop towards the
   end of the extended period and focus over the Great Plains.

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Iceresistance

[Iceresistance]

@ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

34 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

@ClicheVortex2014

The big question is how much will we clear out tomorrow. Early next week may be interesting though.

Edited September 14, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

The big question is how much will we clear out tomorrow. Early next week may be interesting though.

Yeah, I am watching the SPC and the models, the models are suggesting there might be a tornado threat.

[ElectricStorm]

We typically don't see much organized severe weather around here in September (we see it more in Oct/Nov) so I'm a little skeptical for now. Maybe we can get some marginal risk days and maybe a slight if we're lucky. We'll see how models trend over the next few days. SPC mentioning it is certainly interesting although I'm wondering if most of it will end up being further north into KS/NE

Although a major severe weather event here in September would be very 2023-like...

[Iceresistance]

SPC on 9.15.2023 (My Birthday)

Severe weather potential will gradually increase during the extended
   period as the upper-air pattern transitions from a trough over the
   East, to a zonal-flow regime, followed by a trough/closed low over
   the West.  Moisture return into the Great Plains is forecast next
   week downstream of the western U.S. larger-scale trough.  Models
   show appreciably large model variability amongst different models
   and insufficient run-to-run consistency.  It is for the
   aforementioned reasons that a predictability-too-low highlight will
   characterize severe weather potential over the Great Plains
   beginning Tuesday through Friday next week.

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by Iceresistance

[StretchCT]

Found this graphic which I found interesting for the Philly/NJ area in particular.  Do we have a graphic somewhere that has the averages?

[StretchCT]

8 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

SPC on 9.15.2023 (My Birthday)

Severe weather potential will gradually increase during the extended
   period as the upper-air pattern transitions from a trough over the
   East, to a zonal-flow regime, followed by a trough/closed low over
   the West.  Moisture return into the Great Plains is forecast next
   week downstream of the western U.S. larger-scale trough.  Models
   show appreciably large model variability amongst different models
   and insufficient run-to-run consistency.  It is for the
   aforementioned reasons that a predictability-too-low highlight will
   characterize severe weather potential over the Great Plains
   beginning Tuesday through Friday next week.

 

Happy Birthday!

[ClicheVortex2014]

On 9/15/2023 at 12:20 AM, ElectricStorm said:

We typically don't see much organized severe weather around here in September (we see it more in Oct/Nov) so I'm a little skeptical for now. Maybe we can get some marginal risk days and maybe a slight if we're lucky. We'll see how models trend over the next few days. SPC mentioning it is certainly interesting although I'm wondering if most of it will end up being further north into KS/NE

Although a major severe weather event here in September would be very 2023-like...

The upper-level pattern early in the week with the STJ rounding a suppressed ridge reminds me of early to mid-June. Of course there's no shot we're going to get June-like instability, but looks like an active pattern for the southern/central Plains coming up.

[Iceresistance]

@ClicheVortex2014I think they know where you live... 😝

[Iceresistance]

Medium-range models continue to show the development of a
   large-scale trough/mid-level low over the West during the early half
   of the extended period.  Appreciable model variability exists on
   Wednesday (day 4) on the evolution of a mid-level trough over the
   lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast.  As the western U.S. upper disturbance
   pivots eastward into the Four Corners (Friday), the risk for severe
   will increase over portions of the central-southern Great Plains
   near and east of a dryline.  Will defer including a highlighted
   severe threat for Friday (day 6) over KS/OK/TX for the time being,
   until more model consistency is apparent and confidence in this
   scenario increases.

Friday could be the biggest of the week

[ElectricStorm]

The HRRR isn't super enthusiastic about tomorrow, especially for the western part of the slight risk. That would still give us a nice line of storms here though, especially for September, but this shouldn't be anything crazy. 

[Iceresistance]

10 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

The HRRR isn't super enthusiastic about tomorrow, especially for the western part of the slight risk. That would still give us a nice line of storms here though, especially for September, but this shouldn't be anything crazy. 

0z HRRR had a literal Supercell with a nasty hail core over Oklahoma City