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Cat 5 Lee | peak 165 mph 926 mb | post-tropical


Iceresistance

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1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is 
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the 
south of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for some gradual development of this system by the middle 
part of next week, and a tropical depression is likely to form while 
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the 
eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

Edited by StretchCT
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  • The title was changed to 95L | High Ceiling potential for the MDR | 40/80
  • The title was changed to 95L | High Ceiling potential for the MDR | 60/90
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Long way to go and a lot of model runs before this happens.  GFS is most bullish.  Others recurve before getting this close. Still over 10 days out.  Key model differences are what is going on ahead and north of the system. 

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3 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Long way to go and a lot of model runs before this happens.  GFS is most bullish.  Others recurve before getting this close. Still over 10 days out.  Key model differences are what is going on ahead and north of the system. 

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GFS all summer has been predicting a storm that comes up the NE coast (Carolina's, VA, Long Island, Maine).  So far they have been wrong but they still seem to think that at least 1 system will hit the northeast coast.

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  • The title was changed to 95L | Very High Ceiling potential for the MDR | 90/100

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located over the central tropical Atlantic about 800 miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little in 
organization through the day.  However, environmental conditions 
are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or 
tropical storm is expected to form over the next day or so while the 
low moves toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the 
central tropical Atlantic.  Additional strengthening, possibly to a 
hurricane, is likely later this week while the system moves over 
western portions of the tropical Atlantic, near or to the northeast 
of the northern Leeward Islands.  For additional information on 
this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

"possibly to a hurricane"

How often do y'all hear that?

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  • The title was changed to TD 13| Very High Ceiling potential for the MDR |
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Least amount of shear I've seen this season in the area where it's supposed to track.

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20kts max shear through it making it to 933mb.  The RH profile doesn't look dry either once it gets going. 

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Edited by StretchCT
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  • The title was changed to TD 13 | Very High Ceiling potential for the MDR | 35 mph 1008 mb
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3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

MY GOD
 

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N  63.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

 

You left out my favorite line...

The NHC intensity forecast is extremely bullish for a first forecast, but remarkably lies below the intensity consensus.
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Some of the hurricane models... 6z run and I don't think any of these are the strongest frames of their runs.  HAFS B hit 908.  HAFS is fairly new, but I don't remember an Atlantic Hurricane with 908.  

This isn't 10 days out, it's five. 

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image.thumb.png.a2a4f00f081b75bf5363cb2e2dc8f233.pngimage.thumb.png.099cfc6641e9e0e8404c0039189e4a68.png 

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