Iceresistance Posted September 3, 2023 Share Posted September 3, 2023 (edited) 1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95): A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system by the middle part of next week, and a tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Edited September 17, 2023 by StretchCT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 3, 2023 Author Share Posted September 3, 2023 Odds are getting higher, and I hope it's a recurve (repeating Sam 2021) and not a Irma 2017 repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 3, 2023 Share Posted September 3, 2023 Ruh roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 4, 2023 Author Share Posted September 4, 2023 Formation odds are increasing, 95L got 4 ASCAT hits in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 4, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 4, 2023 Long way to go and a lot of model runs before this happens. GFS is most bullish. Others recurve before getting this close. Still over 10 days out. Key model differences are what is going on ahead and north of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 3 hours ago, StretchCT said: Long way to go and a lot of model runs before this happens. GFS is most bullish. Others recurve before getting this close. Still over 10 days out. Key model differences are what is going on ahead and north of the system. GFS all summer has been predicting a storm that comes up the NE coast (Carolina's, VA, Long Island, Maine). So far they have been wrong but they still seem to think that at least 1 system will hit the northeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 4, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 4, 2023 45 minutes ago, clm said: GFS all summer has been predicting a storm that comes up the NE coast Yeah, but this system actually exists. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 4, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 4, 2023 a lot of majors here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, StretchCT said: a lot of majors here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 4, 2023 Author Share Posted September 4, 2023 I have never seen anything like this before. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 4, 2023 Author Share Posted September 4, 2023 Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic about 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little in organization through the day. However, environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the next day or so while the low moves toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional strengthening, possibly to a hurricane, is likely later this week while the system moves over western portions of the tropical Atlantic, near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. For additional information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. "possibly to a hurricane" How often do y'all hear that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 5, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 5, 2023 ASCAT pass seems to have gotten it. Circulation is there but might not be strong enough for depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 I'm half asleep so trying to make heads or tails out of this. But it seems that GFS and Euro on the same run are quite at odds on the location of the storm. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 5, 2023 Author Share Posted September 5, 2023 First Advisory comes out at 10 AM CDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 5, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 5, 2023 (edited) Least amount of shear I've seen this season in the area where it's supposed to track. 20kts max shear through it making it to 933mb. The RH profile doesn't look dry either once it gets going. Edited September 5, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 5, 2023 Author Share Posted September 5, 2023 MY GOD OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 5, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: MY GOD OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. You left out my favorite line... The NHC intensity forecast is extremely bullish for a first forecast, but remarkably lies below the intensity consensus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 5, 2023 Author Share Posted September 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: You left out my favorite line... The NHC intensity forecast is extremely bullish for a first forecast, but remarkably lies below the intensity consensus. I was about to post that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 5, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 5, 2023 Some of the hurricane models... 6z run and I don't think any of these are the strongest frames of their runs. HAFS B hit 908. HAFS is fairly new, but I don't remember an Atlantic Hurricane with 908. This isn't 10 days out, it's five. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 5, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 5, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Oh I think this is definitely happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cer5059 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Now Tropical Storm Lee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Either a front comes through and bounces this thing out to sea or someone is gonna get wrecked, like biblically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 5, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 5, 2023 Looks like one nasty EPS member there for my area. GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 5, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 5, 2023 EPS trend at D11. Bermuda looks to be in a bad spot. So many storms thread that needle and seem to miss, that I'd be inclined to go with that type of track at this long lead, but certainly bears watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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