Moderators StretchCT Posted May 23, 2023 Moderators Share Posted May 23, 2023 (edited) Edited May 27, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 23, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 23, 2023 From yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 23, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 23, 2023 Currently looks like an ERC taking place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: Currently looks like an ERC taking place Radar from Guam has a dry slot entrenched into the Northern Eyewall. And this is actually Mawar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 23, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 23, 2023 DPN31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.2N 146.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 135 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 114 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION, A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE, SURROUNDING A 12 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE EVIDENT IN BOTH RADAR AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RADAR VELOCITY DATA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SMALL SLOT OF DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM CORE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, POSSIBLY ACCOUNTING FOR THE OBSERVED SUSPENSION OF THE PREVIOUS INTENSIFICATION TREND. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND SMAP DATA FROM 230753Z CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) TO THE NORTH AND EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS CIMSS ADT: 140 KTS AT 231130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY INHIBITOR TO ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION REMAINS THE IMPACT OF INNER-CORE DYNAMICS, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION TO 140 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BASED ON HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, THE SYSTEM IS TURNING TOWARD A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE PROJECTED TRACK WILL CARRY STY MAWAR OVER THE ISLAND OF GUAM WITHIN 12 TO 18 HOURS, ALMOST CERTAINLY INCLUDING PASSAGE OF THE INNER EYEWALL. STY 02W WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW SOLIDLY ENTRENCHED FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, APPROACHING THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH NO NOTEWORTHY OUTLIERS, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AVAILABLE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, ALL AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS LIE IN THE STRONG TYPHOON TO SUPER TYPHOON RANGE. GIVEN THE ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND SOME SPREAD IN MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY FORECAST IS MEDIUM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 24, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 24, 2023 (edited) Mawar has thankfully eased a bit due to an eyewall replacement cycle. Unfortunately it's moving really slowly and will douse the islands as well as expose them to longer sustained winds. WDPN31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.5N 145.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 86 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS A SMALL (6 NM DIAMETER) EYE. IN ADDITION, BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE NOTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FRAGMENTED BANDS OF CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THESE FRAGMENTED BANDS ARE THE RESULT OF DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTH BEING INTRODUCED INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE WERE SEVERAL HOURS WITHOUT ANY USABLE MICROWAVE DATA, HOWEVER A RECENT 231756Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PASS SHOWS THE INNER EYEWALL HAS BEEN BROKEN DOWN AND A SECONDARY EYEWALL IS FORMING. DUE TO THE ONSET OF THIS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. RADAR IMAGERY FROM ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE (PGUA) SHOWS THE OUTER BANDS OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER GUAM, ROTA, AND THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS, AS WELL AS THE EYE OF THE SYSTEM IN CLEAR VIEW AS IT APPROACHES GUAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MOREOVER, RECENT SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM ANDERSEN AFB INDICATE CONSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TC MAWAR IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, A PRONOUNCED 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES, ALONG WITH THE ABOVEMENTIONED RADAR IMAGERY AND RECENT SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OFF ANALYSIS OF THE ERC AND A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. Edited May 24, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 24, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 24, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 Mawar is now at 170 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 That thing is a monster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 25, 2023 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.7N 141.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 150 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 191 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 63 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 120 KNOTS AT 241200Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 150 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 20-22NM SLIGHTLY OBLONG EYE WITH A 21.0C EYE TEMPERATURE AND A NEAR-SYMMETRIC EYEWALL. THE 250910Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN 80-100NM DIAMETER CORE WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 150 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES, WHICH RANGE FROM T7.0 TO T7.5, AS WELL AS THE CIMSS SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES. THE LATEST D-PRINT AND D-MINT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO THE 153-157 KNOT RANGE. AS A SIDE NOTE, A 250847Z RCM-2 SAR IMAGE INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 111 KNOTS, WHICH WERE ASSESSED AS ERRONEOUSLY LOW DUE TO THE HIGH INCIDENCE ANGLES OF 50-51 DEGREES. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 25, 2023 (edited) https://apnews.com/article/super-typhoon-mawar-guam-pacific-fd49b810f85f69d1e86f9ee6b0cc3583 https://apnews.com/article/super-typhoon-mawar-guam-pacific-d7a2634b7730c6e6594eb25226e0b30b Edited May 25, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 25, 2023 (edited) Edited May 25, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 26, 2023 Share Posted May 26, 2023 Some stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 26, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 26, 2023 Picked up some speed and is 145kts now down from 150. JTWC is citing an ERC for this weakening. 1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 136.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT WDPN31 PGTW 261500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 027// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.7N 136.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 145 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 810 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 64 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W CONTINUES TO UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) AS PREDICTED BY THE UW-CIMSS M-PERC PRODUCT OVER THE PAST DAY. A 260857Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS SEPARATED BY A MOAT FEATURE WITH THE SMALL INNER EYEWALL BEGINNING TO ERODE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE OUTER EYEWALL CONSOLIDATES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER (17.8C) EYE TEMPERATURE. EIR IMAGERY, HOWEVER, CONTINUES TO SHOW A ROUND, 26NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN GENERAL, DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES HAVE DECREASED TO THE T6.5 TO T7.0 (127 TO 140 KNOTS) RANGE WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 7.5 TO 8.0 (155 TO 170 KNOTS). ADT ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED STEADILY TO 7.1 (143 KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 145 KTS REFLECTS THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND AND IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON A 260855Z RCM-2 SAR MAXIMUM WIND VALUE OF 138 KNOTS AND THE ADT ESTIMATE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE RCM-2 SAR IMAGE. Current Intensity Analysis UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 9.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 26 MAY 2023 Time : 170000 UTC Lat : 15:55:48 N Lon : 135:11:24 E Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.5 6.4 6.4 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km Center Temp : +17.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.0C Scene Type : EYE Subtropical Adjustment : OFF Extratropical Adjustment : OFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 26, 2023 Share Posted May 26, 2023 Mawar did one of the cleanest EWRC's I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 27, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 27, 2023 I did find where they had a sustained wind speed of 155kts or 180mph. Gusts of 190kts is about 220mph 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 28, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 28, 2023 120 kts still SGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 032// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 032 DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 02W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 129.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 28, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 28, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 28, 2023 Share Posted May 28, 2023 On 5/25/2023 at 2:23 PM, StretchCT said: MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.7N 141.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 150 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 191 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 63 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 120 KNOTS AT 241200Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 150 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 20-22NM SLIGHTLY OBLONG EYE WITH A 21.0C EYE TEMPERATURE AND A NEAR-SYMMETRIC EYEWALL. THE 250910Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN 80-100NM DIAMETER CORE WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 150 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES, WHICH RANGE FROM T7.0 TO T7.5, AS WELL AS THE CIMSS SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES. THE LATEST D-PRINT AND D-MINT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO THE 153-157 KNOT RANGE. AS A SIDE NOTE, A 250847Z RCM-2 SAR IMAGE INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 111 KNOTS, WHICH WERE ASSESSED AS ERRONEOUSLY LOW DUE TO THE HIGH INCIDENCE ANGLES OF 50-51 DEGREES. I've seen satellite imagery over the last few days of this beast, but haven't payed much attention otherwise. 64 FT waves, It would be an absolutely awful time to be stranded on a boat in the path of that, wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 1, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted June 1, 2023 Still going - it was named on 5/20. It's the strongest May storm in the history of the basin, and in the northern hemisphere. Currently at 50kts and 974mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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