Iceresistance Posted April 18, 2023 Posted April 18, 2023 The GEFS has a strong signal, and the SPC mentions it right now, but instability is currently too low/forecast too far out. West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast across much of the nation on Monday. Moisture return will probably take place in the southern Plains, around the western periphery of an area of surface high pressure. Dewpoints could increase into the 60s F across parts of Texas. Further north, thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of Oklahoma and Kansas during the day. Any severe threat is expected to remain isolated due to relatively weak instability. The same general setup is expected on Tuesday with a moist airmass in place across the western Gulf Coast region. Strong thunderstorms could develop at the northern end of the moist sector in the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley during the day on Tuesday. However, medium-range model forecasts generally have wide spreads for Monday and Tuesday, suggesting predictability is low.
ElectricStorm Posted April 20, 2023 Posted April 20, 2023 Looks like this could be a good rain multi-day rain event for OK. Could see some non severe storms as well. I think we'll be a little too far north for the moisture to make it up here but something to keep an eye on.
Iceresistance Posted April 20, 2023 Author Posted April 20, 2023 21 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Looks like this could be a good rain multi-day rain event for OK. Could see some non severe storms as well. I think we'll be a little too far north for the moisture to make it up here but something to keep an eye on. It does look like we are north of the boundary, close enough to the storm system for a lot of rain and lightning, but no tornado threat.
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 21, 2023 Meteorologist Posted April 21, 2023 (edited) We've had a little more than an inch of rain since the start of 2023. This next week started off looking promising but the fear is something like GFS will verify. Even that would be great because that's still almost half of what we average for April, but the preference is definitely Euro/Canadian. Edited April 21, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 21, 2023 Meteorologist Posted April 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: We've had a little more than an inch of rain since the start of 2023. This next week started off looking promising but the fear is something like GFS will verify. Even that would be great because that's still almost half of what we average for April, but the preference is definitely Euro/Canadian. I'm going to choose to ignore the 18z GFS because the 3 previous runs were more inline with the CMC and Euro (and for the longest the GFS was the main one showing big rain here). But our funny motto here is "when in drought forecast drought" lol. Rain has been hard to come by xD
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 21, 2023 Meteorologist Posted April 21, 2023 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Ingyball said: I'm going to choose to ignore the 18z GFS because the 3 previous runs were more inline with the CMC and Euro (and for the longest the GFS was the main one showing big rain here). But our funny motto here is "when in drought forecast drought" lol. Rain has been hard to come by xD That's exactly the sentiment here. One of the leads here has been a lead here for 30 years and he's been hammering that home. Starting to see some trends toward GFS but I'm still hoping that maybe we're starting to see the Nina break its group and that we're looking at a wetter pattern. But if you ignore what Euro/Canadian are showing and you stick with GFS... that 0.40" here would normally get people excited. It's just the potential of what could've been is the bummer. But hopefully this is the beginning of a better pattern, if that 0.40" doesn't turn to something more negligible. Edited April 21, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 21, 2023 Meteorologist Posted April 21, 2023 Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said: That's exactly the sentiment here. One of the leads here has been a lead here for 30 years and he's been hammering that home. Starting to see some trends toward GFS but there's still some hope that maybe we're starting to see the Nina break its group and that we're breaking out of the drought pattern. The 30-day and 90-day average of the SOI have been trending down this month with the 90-day approaching the negatives. That's a great signal for a wet pattern developing in Texas. It's going to be a fast flip imo. Once that subtropical jet becomes active I don't think it'll stop. Unlike last year where the faucet shut off, the atmosphere should continue to be favorable for a wet pattern, especially with Nino 1+2 going crazy. I think we're just a few more amplified loops into phase 6 and 7 of the MJO away from the El Nino being solidified. A strong typhoon kicking off a westerly wind burst could get us there too. 1
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 21, 2023 Meteorologist Posted April 21, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Ingyball said: The 30-day and 90-day average of the SOI have been trending down this month with the 90-day approaching the negatives. That's a great signal for a wet pattern developing in Texas. It's going to be a fast flip imo. Once that subtropical jet becomes active I don't think it'll stop. Unlike last year where the faucet shut off, the atmosphere should continue to be favorable for a wet pattern, especially with Nino 1+2 going crazy. I think we're just a few more amplified loops into phase 6 and 7 of the MJO away from the El Nino being solidified. A strong typhoon kicking off a westerly wind burst could get us there too. Yeah I've been keeping up with MJO/ENSO but I haven't looked at SOI in a bit. This would be a great time for the SOI to flip and for some Nino forcing to begin. Kinda funny how the standards have changed for both of us. We used to get excited about Ninas for storms and rain was never an issue... here we are hoping for a Nino and we're talking about an inch of rain like most people talk about a foot of snow. Edited April 21, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 21, 2023 Meteorologist Posted April 21, 2023 15 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Yeah I've been keeping up with MJO/ENSO but I haven't looked at SOI in a bit. This would be a great time for the SOI to flip and for some Nino forcing to begin. Kinda funny how the standards have changed for both of us. We used to get excited about Ninas for storms and rain was never an issue... here we are hoping for a Nino and we're talking about an inch of rain like most people talk about a foot of snow. Yeah, though I always had a different perspective on rain since I grew up in Texas. Funny thing is if I end up at WPC like I hope to someday I'll still want an El Nino just to experience one of those big East Coast blizzards lol. Still mad about missing out on January 2016 outside of a few flakes in Columbus lol. 1
Iceresistance Posted April 22, 2023 Author Posted April 22, 2023 14 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Yeah I've been keeping up with MJO/ENSO but I haven't looked at SOI in a bit. This would be a great time for the SOI to flip and for some Nino forcing to begin. Kinda funny how the standards have changed for both of us. We used to get excited about Ninas for storms and rain was never an issue... here we are hoping for a Nino and we're talking about an inch of rain like most people talk about a foot of snow. Here is the site for the SOI index https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 23, 2023 Meteorologist Posted April 23, 2023 (edited) Label me very skeptical but 18z GFS has some potential for supercells here on Tuesday. First GFS run that does so. GFS supercell composite trend Edited April 23, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 24, 2023 Meteorologist Posted April 24, 2023 NAM disagrees on the instability axis but it's a similar look
Chinook Posted April 25, 2023 Posted April 25, 2023 (edited) On 4/23/2023 at 10:31 PM, ClicheVortex2014 said: NAM disagrees on the instability axis but it's a similar look Tonight's NAM has the better instability with the 55-65 degree dew points in central Texas. The convection allowing models have some areas of storms from San Antonio to Houston, with perhaps shear values of 40 knots. I would say the SPC will keep the slight risk in that area and also for farther west, kind of closer to mid-Texas and the Panhandle. I think a few isolated storms will form. There could even be a chance for chase-able supercells with dew points of only 50-55.\ Wednesday: the cold front comes into northern Texas. NAM soundings show that the hail indices should be pretty high. shown below: the FV3 model has a supercell near Amarillo with a surface temp of 62 (crazy, huh?) Edited April 25, 2023 by Chinook
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 25, 2023 Meteorologist Posted April 25, 2023 The GFS has not backed down with the rain for southern Kansas (especially southwest) and northern Oklahoma. If that plays out it would really set us up for an active May with the dryline setting up over western Kansas for multi-day storms (and maybe some chase chances for me?) once the PNA goes negative again.
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 25, 2023 Meteorologist Posted April 25, 2023 Day 2 enhanced for wind in DFW tomorrow. Could be an interesting couple of days down in Texas. I haven't been paying much attention to the severe side due to being sick the last few days. 1
Iceresistance Posted April 25, 2023 Author Posted April 25, 2023 @ClicheVortex2014 Whatever you do, PLEASE DO NOT LOOK AT THE 12z HRRR! 1
ElectricStorm Posted April 25, 2023 Posted April 25, 2023 Slight risk expanded to the NW, now includes SW OK and parts of the TX panhandle
snowlover2 Posted April 26, 2023 Posted April 26, 2023 2" hail near Sweetwater TX. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service San Angelo TX 705 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 TXC151-353-260030- /O.CON.KSJT.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-230426T0030Z/ Nolan TX-Fisher TX- 705 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN NOLAN AND SOUTHEASTERN FISHER COUNTIES... At 703 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Gannon, or near Sweetwater, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters reported 2 inch diameter hail 6 miles northwest of Sweetwater at 7 PM CDT. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. This severe storm will be near... Longworth around 715 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Busby, Capitola and Gannon.
snowlover2 Posted April 26, 2023 Posted April 26, 2023 Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 705 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0700 PM HAIL 6 NW SWEETWATER 32.53N 100.48W 04/25/2023 M2.00 INCH FISHER TX STORM CHASER
snowlover2 Posted April 26, 2023 Posted April 26, 2023 Up to possible baseball size now. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service San Angelo TX 713 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Jones County in west central Texas... Northeastern Nolan County in west central Texas... Northwestern Taylor County in west central Texas... Southeastern Fisher County in west central Texas... * Until 815 PM CDT. * At 711 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Sweetwater, moving southeast at 25 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR SWEETWATER AND NORTHEAST NOLAN COUNTY HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. * This severe thunderstorm will be near... Trent around 745 PM CDT. Merkel around 755 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Lake Sweetwater and Camp Butman. This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 240 and 272.
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