April 19th/20th - April 23rd, 2023 | Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak with Severe Storms elsewhere

[Iceresistance]

The models have been going crazy, but there is still uncertainty from the SPC to introduce any severe weather zones, just enough uncertainty for now.

   Moisture scouring from the frontal passage will result in stable
   conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS on
   D5/Monday. Low-level moisture may begin returning across the
   southern and central Plains and Lower MS Valley late D5/Monday and
   D6/Tuesday, ahead of a low-latitude shortwave trough expected to
   move across the southern High Plains on D6/Tuesday. Current guidance
   suggests only limited low-level moisture will precede this
   shortwave, creating capping issues as the shortwave moves through.

   Despite relatively good agreement that low-level moisture advection
   will continue on D7/Wednesday, guidance diverges with evolution of
   the upper pattern after D6/Tuesday. This limits forecast confidence
   for D7/Wednesday and D8/Thursday.

 

[Iceresistance]

Hot off the press on the 18z GEFS for 4.19.2023, that does not look good.

And April 20th, oh boy

Edited April 13, 2023 by Iceresistance

[ElectricStorm]

This potential system should have better moisture than this current one, but these plains systems that look decent a week out tend to downtrend as we get closer. Could have some capping issues again. Needs to be watched though 

[Iceresistance]

Oh geez! I guess the SPC saw the model consistency!

[Iceresistance]

April 20th Mean Bulk Shear from the 0z EPS, I don't like that kind of signal that is 7 days out!

[Ingyball]

I do like the upper jet alignment in Kansas for Thursday next week. Looks like potentially a 2 day outbreak with the failure mode on Thursday being the cap and the failure mode on Friday being storm mode (upper jet becomes more meridional). Should be fun to watch the next week or so. 

 

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

I do like the upper jet alignment in Kansas for Thursday next week. Looks like potentially a 2 day outbreak with the failure mode on Thursday being the cap and the failure mode on Friday being storm mode (upper jet becomes more meridional). Should be fun to watch the next week or so. 

 

Imagine this storm season busts so much because of the inversions, that would be the most annoying!

[Ingyball]

Just now, Iceresistance said:

Imagine this storm season busts so much because of the inversions, that would be the most annoying!

It happens, but the flip side of it is that it only takes one event to make a season. If it wasn't for Andover last season would have been mostly a cap bust for us. We did have some severe weather in May but the real story that month was the near record rain, not the tornadoes. One significant tornado over a populated Plains city and it becomes the story for the season unless a bigger outbreak occurs.

[ElectricStorm]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Imagine this storm season busts so much because of the inversions, that would be the most annoying!

That's pretty much what April 2022 was for us. Both 4/12 and 4/29 could have been big if not for the cap. Really only 4/23 did anything, other than that the entire month was pretty dull. But that's obviously better than a major destructive tornado outbreak. I don't want any of that, I just want nice storms

Edited April 14, 2023 by ElectricStorm

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, ElectricStorm said:

That's pretty much what April 2022 was for us. Both 4/12 and 4/29 could have been big if not for the cap. Really only 4/23 did anything, other than that the entire month was pretty dull. But that's obviously better than a major destructive tornado outbreak. I don't want any of that, I just want nice storms

Well, May 2022 was a "OH GEEZ!" month, and May 2023 could be the same, except it could be MUCH worse!

(Also, 4/29 was when I was in Alabama, Georgia, and Florida)

[Iceresistance]

@Ingyball How much rain have you gotten under the Thunderstorm Watch?

[Ingyball]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

@Ingyball How much rain have you gotten under the Thunderstorm Watch?

Just a trace at the airport so far

[Iceresistance]

15 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Just a trace at the airport so far

Oops, just realized I was on the wrong thread. 🤦‍♂️

[Iceresistance]

Also, the Bulk Shear signal is stronger on the 12z EPS compared to the 12z CMCE, how often can I say that?

[ElectricStorm]

Last couple GFS runs are starting to show a cold front crashing south severely limiting severe potential for OK/KS by keeping the moisture to the south with this setup. I'm not sure I buy that quite yet but it's something to watch going forward on future runs. 

Edited April 15, 2023 by ElectricStorm

[ElectricStorm]

Slight risk shifted east due to faster trough movement. Not expecting any storms here honestly

[Iceresistance]

4 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

Slight risk shifted east due to faster trough movement. Not expecting any storms here honestly

I've noticed that this is just on the 20th, the 19th is looking interesting, but another cap bust? Really? The cap busts are already getting old -_-

[Iceresistance]

Had to extend the ending date, April 21st is looking really nasty for Northern Texas and SE Oklahoma, it may go here if the system slows down/trends west.

[Ingyball]

There may be a chance for something in Oklahoma and Texas on Friday, but the lead shortwave pretty much kills the chance for severe here in Kansas outside of far southeast Kansas maybe. If that energy were held back with main trough I think we'd be looking at another big outbreak. 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Ingyball said:

There may be a chance for something in Oklahoma and Texas on Friday, but the lead shortwave pretty much kills the chance for severe here in Kansas outside of far southeast Kansas maybe. If that energy were held back with main trough I think we'd be looking at another big outbreak. 

This is for that on the 18z NAM basically at my area, I know the NAM loves to be crazy this far out, but if this verifies... RUN!

[Iceresistance]

And the week after that could be another big outbreak potential, not worthy of a new topic...yet...

[Iceresistance]

Some BIG outbreaks are part of the CIPS analog for April 21st: April 22nd, 1996, April 19th, 2011, and May 21st, 2001.

 

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SP&fhr=F132&rundt=2023041612&map=thbSVR

[Ingyball]

CIPS is pretty active beginning Wednesday going all the way through Friday. Looks like Wednesday would favor the Central Plains (where SPC has an outlook). Thursday may end up favoring the Midwest if the GFS is right, and then Friday would favor the Southern Plains and Dixie Alley.  I still think we're seeing a ton of potential getting wasted due to the lead shortwave and the front that it sends down. Without that we'd have multiple days of moisture return over a large area. 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Ingyball said:

CIPS is pretty active beginning Wednesday going all the way through Friday. Looks like Wednesday would favor the Central Plains (where SPC has an outlook). Thursday may end up favoring the Midwest if the GFS is right, and then Friday would favor the Southern Plains and Dixie Alley.  I still think we're seeing a ton of potential getting wasted due to the lead shortwave and the front that it sends down. Without that we'd have multiple days of moisture return over a large area. 

Also the nonstop crazy inversions, it was not that problematic up to 4 years ago!

 

And the SE Ridge is nonexistent.

[ElectricStorm]

Latest mid-long range GFS is disgusting... Sends the cold front way into the gulf, restricting moisture return pretty much the entire rest of the month, with perhaps a small exception towards the end of the month. 

Ew 

May is going to have to clutch up