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2023 Tropical Atlantic Discussion and Pre-invest thread


StretchCT

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Instead of multiple areas of development with systems developing in one and then another, let's try doing one basin wide discussion instead this season.

Posts in this thread should be topics like predictions, observations, conditions and model runs up to the time that an Invest is assigned. Can also be used to post pre-season forecasts, pre-season possible development and other odds and ends that are Atlantic tropic related.  

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Still there.  Seems to form at 500mb first, but... it's pretty close.  Not seeing any real baroclinic forcing of this either.  It's like the energy coming through TX into the gulf gets split and a piece gets caught in an eddy and develops. 

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Here's how it generates aloft

gfs_z500_vort_eus_fh60-132.thumb.gif.430b1f27b2ce685c7816d71f04174c0f.gif

And at surface

Spoiler

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh60-144.thumb.gif.0d19ac2f12b73123295a697c01621df7.gif

Tough to call it tropical as it's not forming over 26c water.

image.png.4b543b4c98a41dedb744be53520f3683.png

But looking closer, the middle of the gulf is over 26c.

Screenshot2023-04-07at8_32_31PM.png.a1e59e88d2855710aabe202cdcb5355a.pngScreenshot2023-04-07at8_33_01PM.png.ac8821ca499e53a66cbdb71551394966.png

Edited by StretchCT
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System is still there, on all the 12z models, but isn't impressive enough to warrant much attention.  Too much shear.  If it were relaxed the 500mb system could sync better, spawn a stronger surface low and develop a hybrid system that if stayed over the GOM long enough could warrant attention. 

 

 

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On 4/8/2023 at 2:58 PM, StretchCT said:

System is still there, on all the 12z models, but isn't impressive enough to warrant much attention.  Too much shear.  If it were relaxed the 500mb system could sync better, spawn a stronger surface low and develop a hybrid system that if stayed over the GOM long enough could warrant attention. 

 

 

Great discussion. The fact that we are seeing things develop this early bodes not well for this upcoming season (granted shear did this one in) 

 

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On 4/5/2023 at 2:30 PM, StretchCT said:

Instead of multiple areas of development with systems developing in one and then another, let's try doing one basin wide discussion instead this season.

Posts in this thread should be topics like predictions, observations, conditions and model runs up to the time that an Invest is assigned. Can also be used to post pre-season forecasts, pre-season possible development and other odds and ends that are Atlantic tropic related.  

I like this idea of having one place to discuss all Atlantic activity.  It should prevent any confusion. I will add gulf of Mexico and Caribbean tags.

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Watches/warnings for that area

Screenshot2023-04-11at9_08_57PM.png.3cf2f60d4a5e5121ec4a97865332e41b.png

Could see up to 5" of rain too per AFD'

Spoiler
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023

Key Messages:
1. Coastal flooding of 1-3 feet above normal high tide is expected
across coastal Louisiana and Mississippi today through Thursday
night. East-facing shores will observe the highest inundation
heights especially between Waveland, MS and east of the
Mississippi River.

2. Excessive rainfall will be possible Wednesday through Thursday
morning across southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. Two-
day rainfall totals will be between 1-3" with locally higher
amounts. Avoid driving through flooded areas and take extra
precaution when driving on wet roads.

Latest water vapor satellite imagery portrays a deepening mid-
level trough centered over the Lake Charles area with southeast
Louisiana situated in the diffluent exit region of subtropical jet
stream over the central Gulf of Mexico. Falling heights coupled
with these favorable upper-level dynamics are aiding in pressure
falls across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and a better defined
baroclinic surface low is expected to develop tonight. These
pressure falls are tightening the pressure gradient with the
southeastern CONUS high which will cause a notable increase in
easterly winds by Wednesday morning. P-ETSS tidal guidance
indicates that coastal inundation produced by these winds will be
between 1-3 feet with locations like Waveland, MS and Shell Beach,
LA on the higher side of this range with high tide on Wednesday
night.

Temperatures will remain seasonably cooler than normal through the
short term period due to the rex block pattern keeping the upper-
level trough stuck over southern Louisiana until Thursday. Highs
will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with lows in the upper 50s to
low 60s due to cloud cover limiting diurnal variation of
temperature.

Convective coverage along coastal Louisiana is already markedly
increasing as surface pressure falls aid convergent banding and
diffluent flow aloft vents the developing convection. While the
upper-trough has verified a bit east of model guidance from the
prior days, deepest convection is occurring west of the MS River
Mouth which could keep the low further west initially before
better upper-level dynamics force the low to consolidate and move
northeastward toward the Mississippi coast Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Beginning tomorrow morning, this developing
convection will begin to drift northward and confidence is highest
for measurable precipitation to begin in the New Orleans metro by
midday with areas further north following thereafter. Monitoring
trends in where the surface low develops and tracks will be
crucial in determining where the axis of heaviest rainfall
ultimately ends up, but confidence is highest for rainfall totals
of 2-3" near coastal Louisiana and Mississippi with 1-2" further
inland. Locally higher totals upwards of 5" could occur especially
along the coast with any heavier, slow-moving bands of showers
and storms.

 

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The swirl over LA/TX is the upper low. One of the swirls in the gulf is the surface low.  There might be something right by the coast but definitely firing up over gulf. 

Miserable day in Florida.  

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-southeast-02-19_26Z-20230412_map-mslp_noBar-24-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.3a2fa1542a0b280dd468c3e1dbb8c726.gif

 

Special Marine warnings out.

Spoiler
Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-130315-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A 1010 mb low pres has developed over the central Gulf
near 26N89W, with a stationary front extending ESE to the Florida
Keys. Strong to near gale force E winds, with gusts to gale 
force, are observed in the NE semicircle of the low. These strong 
to gale force winds will continue over the NE and north-central 
Gulf through tonight as the low moves N. The low will move inland 
over the U.S. north-central Gulf Coast on Thu. Once the low moves 
inland, marine conditions will improve Thu afternoon and evening. 
For the weekend, a cold front is forecast to enter the western 
Gulf which will cause winds and seas to increase.

$$

GMZ040-130315-
NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-
1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

.TODAY...N to NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NE to E swell. 
.TONIGHT...N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NE to E
swell. 
.THU...NW to N winds 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable less
than 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NE to E swell. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE to S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S of 27N, N to NE winds 10 kt late.
Variable winds less than 5 kt in the evening. N of 27N, N to NE
winds 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE swell. 

$$

GMZ041-130315-
SW Louisiana Offshore Waters including Flower Garden Bank Marine
Sanctuary-
1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

.TODAY...N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NE to E
swell. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NE to E swell.
.THU...NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W of 92W, variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming SE
to S 10 kt late. E of 92W, W to NW winds 10 kt,
shifting to SW late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE to S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W of 92W, E to SE winds 10 kt, shifting to N to NE
late. E of 92W, SE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to
10 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.SUN...N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in E to SE
swell. 

$$

GMZ056-130315-
N Central Gulf Offshore Waters-
1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

...GALE WARNING...

.TODAY...W of 89W, N winds 15 to 20 kt, shifting to SW 10 kt in
the afternoon. E of 89W, SE winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft in
NE to E swell. Scattered tstms. 
.TONIGHT...W of 89W, W winds 15 to 20 kt. E of 89W, SE winds 25 
to 35 kt, diminishing to S to SW 15 to 25 kt late. Seas 8 to 12 
ft in NE to E swell. 
.THU...SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in W swell. 
.THU NIGHT...SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in W to NW
swell. 
.FRI...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in W to NW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.SUN...W of 89W, NE to E winds 10 kt, shifting to NE 15 to 20 kt
in the afternoon. E of 89W, N to NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. 

$$

GMZ057-130315-
NE Gulf N of 26N E of 87W-
1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

...GALE WARNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft in E to SE swell. 
Scattered tstms. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt late. 
Seas 8 to 12 ft in E swell. 
.THU...S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in W swell. 
.FRI...SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft in W
swell, subsiding to 3 ft or less in W swell late. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 to 15 kt W of 85W, and variable less than
5 kt E of 85W. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SUN...W of 85W, N winds 10 kt. E of 85W, variable winds less
than 5 kt, becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 

$$

GMZ058-130315-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W-
1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

.TODAY...N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N to NE winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable
less than 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NE to E swell. 
.THU...Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NE to E swell. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SAT...W of 96W, SE winds 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable
less than 5 kt. E of 96W, SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE to E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SUN...N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE to E
swell. 

$$

GMZ045-130315-
W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 91W and 94W-
1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

.TODAY...NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NE swell. 
.THU...S of 24N, NW winds 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable
less than 5 kt. N of 24N, W to NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to
7 ft in NE swell. 
.THU NIGHT...Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming E to SE
10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft S of 24N, and
6 to 8 ft N of 24N. 

$$

GMZ046-130315-
Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 91W-
1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

.TODAY...W winds 10 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE swell. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt S of 24N, and SW to W 15 to 20 kt N of
24N. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NE swell. 
.THU...SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt S of 24N, and SW to W 15 to
20 kt N of 24N. Seas 5 to 7 ft in N swell. 
.THU NIGHT...SW to W winds 10 kt, shifting to SE to S late. Seas
4 to 6 ft in NW to N swell. 
.FRI...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to NE to E in the
afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in SE swell. 

$$

GMZ047-130315-
SE Gulf from 22N to 26N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

.TODAY...S of 24N, variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming SW to
W 10 kt in the afternoon. N of 24N, S to SW winds 10 to 15 kt.
Seas 6 to 9 ft in NE to E swell. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NE swell. 
.THU...SW winds 10 kt S of 24N, and SW 15 to 20 kt N of 24N. Seas
4 to 6 ft in NW to N swell. 
.THU NIGHT...S to SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in W to NW
swell. 
.FRI...SE to S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S of 24N, SE winds 10 to 15 kt. N of 24N, variable
winds less than 5 kt, becoming SE 10 kt late. Seas 2 to
4 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SUN...S of 24N, SE winds 10 kt, shifting to NE in the afternoon.
N of 24N, E to SE winds 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable
less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N to NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 

$$

GMZ048-130315-
SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W-
1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

.TODAY...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N to NE winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable
less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.THU...Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE to S winds 10 kt, shifting to NE to E in the afternoon.
Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. 
.SUN...N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. 

$$

GMZ049-130315-
Central Bay of Campeche-
1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

.TODAY...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.THU...Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming E to SE 10 kt in
the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.FRI...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 to 20 kt, shifting to E to SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 

$$

GMZ050-130315-
E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank-
1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

.TODAY...Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...W of 90W, NW to N winds 10 kt. E of 90W, NW to N winds
10 kt in the evening, becoming variable less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to
4 ft. 
.THU...W of 90W, variable winds less than 5 kt. E of 90W,
variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming NW to N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.FRI...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 to 20 kt, shifting to E to SE 10 to
15 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. 
.SAT...W of 90W, SE winds 15 to 20 kt, shifting to NE 10 kt in
the afternoon. E of 90W, E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to
4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to E to SE late. Seas
2 to 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to N in the afternoon. Seas
2 to 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. 

$$

Forecaster Hagen

 

And a mention in the Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between low
pressure of 1010 mb centered in the central Gulf near 26N89W, with
associated warm and stationary fronts and high pressure to its
north and northeast east has resulted in a tight pressure 
gradient that is bringing strong to near-gale force east winds 
with gusts to gale-force over most of the north-central and NE 
Gulf waters. A recent ASCAT data pass over the NE and eastern Gulf 
clearly depicted these winds. These winds are forecast to 
generate seas in the range of 8-12 ft. Some of the observations 
from buoys and oil platforms over these areas of the Gulf have 
begun to reflect these wind conditions. The strong to gale-force 
winds will continue over the north- central and NE Gulf through 
tonight as the low tracks generally northward. The low will move 
inland over the U.S. north- central Gulf Coast on Thu. Once the 
low moves inland, marine conditions will improve Thu afternoon and
evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
Edited by StretchCT
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WESH in Orlando has their analysis with a near average amount of storms. 14-18 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes

WJCL in Savannah put out their forecast in March.  Looks very similar to WESH 🤔

image.png.1f8025280cdbaac14aa6ddc7955c4c1d.png 

 

TropicalStormRisk.com with their predictions - https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/Screenshot2023-04-14at12_02_45PM.png.f407b4d847476cb6971f27e71084a587.png

NC State forecast  via WFXR

image.png.cbac39dcd7ca63867995576d282594b3.png

 

Accuweather's outlook  They mention the African Easterly Jet as another factor beyond El Nino and warm SSTs

image.png.6185c46e8569a1c65b60d516bead7603.png

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