Moderators StretchCT Posted April 5, 2023 Moderators Share Posted April 5, 2023 Instead of multiple areas of development with systems developing in one and then another, let's try doing one basin wide discussion instead this season. Posts in this thread should be topics like predictions, observations, conditions and model runs up to the time that an Invest is assigned. Can also be used to post pre-season forecasts, pre-season possible development and other odds and ends that are Atlantic tropic related. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 5, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 5, 2023 Example would be this hybrid system forming on today's 12z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 5, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 5, 2023 Euro has it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 6, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 6, 2023 EPS today still has it. Interesting feature. GEFS with an unorganized low in the nook of FL and over it in later imagery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted April 7, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted April 7, 2023 Yea cold core with warm waters all around definitely could be the first subtropical named system of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 7, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 7, 2023 Still there. Seems to form at 500mb first, but... it's pretty close. Not seeing any real baroclinic forcing of this either. It's like the energy coming through TX into the gulf gets split and a piece gets caught in an eddy and develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 8, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 8, 2023 (edited) Here's how it generates aloft And at surface Spoiler Tough to call it tropical as it's not forming over 26c water. But looking closer, the middle of the gulf is over 26c. Edited April 8, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 8, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 8, 2023 System is still there, on all the 12z models, but isn't impressive enough to warrant much attention. Too much shear. If it were relaxed the 500mb system could sync better, spawn a stronger surface low and develop a hybrid system that if stayed over the GOM long enough could warrant attention. april trop gom.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted April 10, 2023 Admin Share Posted April 10, 2023 On 4/8/2023 at 2:58 PM, StretchCT said: System is still there, on all the 12z models, but isn't impressive enough to warrant much attention. Too much shear. If it were relaxed the 500mb system could sync better, spawn a stronger surface low and develop a hybrid system that if stayed over the GOM long enough could warrant attention. april trop gom.mp4 22.45 MB · 0 downloads Great discussion. The fact that we are seeing things develop this early bodes not well for this upcoming season (granted shear did this one in) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted April 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted April 11, 2023 On 4/5/2023 at 2:30 PM, StretchCT said: Instead of multiple areas of development with systems developing in one and then another, let's try doing one basin wide discussion instead this season. Posts in this thread should be topics like predictions, observations, conditions and model runs up to the time that an Invest is assigned. Can also be used to post pre-season forecasts, pre-season possible development and other odds and ends that are Atlantic tropic related. I like this idea of having one place to discuss all Atlantic activity. It should prevent any confusion. I will add gulf of Mexico and Caribbean tags. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted April 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted April 11, 2023 ECMWF trick cyclone frequency forecast. Hurricane forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 12, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 12, 2023 NAM has a nice look to it inland. Wonder if any tornados spin up over the panhandle or peninsula. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 12, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 12, 2023 FV3 not impressed. I'm disappointed that we couldn't test this model out more during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 12, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 12, 2023 (edited) Winds over 45kts on NAM. GFS and Euro in the 30s Widespread gusts in 40+kts Edited April 12, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 12, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 12, 2023 EFI with an unusual wind event. Bahamas might need to watch out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 12, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 12, 2023 Watches/warnings for that area Could see up to 5" of rain too per AFD' Spoiler .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2023 Key Messages: 1. Coastal flooding of 1-3 feet above normal high tide is expected across coastal Louisiana and Mississippi today through Thursday night. East-facing shores will observe the highest inundation heights especially between Waveland, MS and east of the Mississippi River. 2. Excessive rainfall will be possible Wednesday through Thursday morning across southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. Two- day rainfall totals will be between 1-3" with locally higher amounts. Avoid driving through flooded areas and take extra precaution when driving on wet roads. Latest water vapor satellite imagery portrays a deepening mid- level trough centered over the Lake Charles area with southeast Louisiana situated in the diffluent exit region of subtropical jet stream over the central Gulf of Mexico. Falling heights coupled with these favorable upper-level dynamics are aiding in pressure falls across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and a better defined baroclinic surface low is expected to develop tonight. These pressure falls are tightening the pressure gradient with the southeastern CONUS high which will cause a notable increase in easterly winds by Wednesday morning. P-ETSS tidal guidance indicates that coastal inundation produced by these winds will be between 1-3 feet with locations like Waveland, MS and Shell Beach, LA on the higher side of this range with high tide on Wednesday night. Temperatures will remain seasonably cooler than normal through the short term period due to the rex block pattern keeping the upper- level trough stuck over southern Louisiana until Thursday. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s due to cloud cover limiting diurnal variation of temperature. Convective coverage along coastal Louisiana is already markedly increasing as surface pressure falls aid convergent banding and diffluent flow aloft vents the developing convection. While the upper-trough has verified a bit east of model guidance from the prior days, deepest convection is occurring west of the MS River Mouth which could keep the low further west initially before better upper-level dynamics force the low to consolidate and move northeastward toward the Mississippi coast Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Beginning tomorrow morning, this developing convection will begin to drift northward and confidence is highest for measurable precipitation to begin in the New Orleans metro by midday with areas further north following thereafter. Monitoring trends in where the surface low develops and tracks will be crucial in determining where the axis of heaviest rainfall ultimately ends up, but confidence is highest for rainfall totals of 2-3" near coastal Louisiana and Mississippi with 1-2" further inland. Locally higher totals upwards of 5" could occur especially along the coast with any heavier, slow-moving bands of showers and storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 12, 2023 Share Posted April 12, 2023 HRRR has something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 12, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 12, 2023 (edited) The swirl over LA/TX is the upper low. One of the swirls in the gulf is the surface low. There might be something right by the coast but definitely firing up over gulf. Miserable day in Florida. Special Marine warnings out. Spoiler Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL 1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height. GMZ001-130315- Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico 1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 .SYNOPSIS...A 1010 mb low pres has developed over the central Gulf near 26N89W, with a stationary front extending ESE to the Florida Keys. Strong to near gale force E winds, with gusts to gale force, are observed in the NE semicircle of the low. These strong to gale force winds will continue over the NE and north-central Gulf through tonight as the low moves N. The low will move inland over the U.S. north-central Gulf Coast on Thu. Once the low moves inland, marine conditions will improve Thu afternoon and evening. For the weekend, a cold front is forecast to enter the western Gulf which will cause winds and seas to increase. $$ GMZ040-130315- NW Gulf including Stetson Bank- 1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 .TODAY...N to NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NE to E swell. .TONIGHT...N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NE to E swell. .THU...NW to N winds 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable less than 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NE to E swell. .THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .FRI...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SAT...SE to S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...S of 27N, N to NE winds 10 kt late. Variable winds less than 5 kt in the evening. N of 27N, N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SUN...NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE swell. $$ GMZ041-130315- SW Louisiana Offshore Waters including Flower Garden Bank Marine Sanctuary- 1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 .TODAY...N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NE to E swell. .TONIGHT...N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in NE to E swell. .THU...NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. .THU NIGHT...W of 92W, variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming SE to S 10 kt late. E of 92W, W to NW winds 10 kt, shifting to SW late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .FRI...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. .SAT...SE to S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...W of 92W, E to SE winds 10 kt, shifting to N to NE late. E of 92W, SE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SUN...N to NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in E to SE swell. $$ GMZ056-130315- N Central Gulf Offshore Waters- 1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 ...GALE WARNING... .TODAY...W of 89W, N winds 15 to 20 kt, shifting to SW 10 kt in the afternoon. E of 89W, SE winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft in NE to E swell. Scattered tstms. .TONIGHT...W of 89W, W winds 15 to 20 kt. E of 89W, SE winds 25 to 35 kt, diminishing to S to SW 15 to 25 kt late. Seas 8 to 12 ft in NE to E swell. .THU...SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in W swell. .THU NIGHT...SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in W to NW swell. .FRI...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in W to NW swell. .FRI NIGHT...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SAT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. .SAT NIGHT...SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SUN...W of 89W, NE to E winds 10 kt, shifting to NE 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. E of 89W, N to NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. $$ GMZ057-130315- NE Gulf N of 26N E of 87W- 1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 ...GALE WARNING... .TODAY...E winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft in E to SE swell. Scattered tstms. .TONIGHT...SE winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 8 to 12 ft in E swell. .THU...S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in SW swell. .THU NIGHT...SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in W swell. .FRI...SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .FRI NIGHT...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft in W swell, subsiding to 3 ft or less in W swell late. .SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. .SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 to 15 kt W of 85W, and variable less than 5 kt E of 85W. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SUN...W of 85W, N winds 10 kt. E of 85W, variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. $$ GMZ058-130315- W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94W- 1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 .TODAY...N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .TONIGHT...N to NE winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable less than 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NE to E swell. .THU...Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NE to E swell. .THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .FRI...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SAT...W of 96W, SE winds 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable less than 5 kt. E of 96W, SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE to E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SUN...N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE to E swell. $$ GMZ045-130315- W Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 91W and 94W- 1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 .TODAY...NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .TONIGHT...NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NE swell. .THU...S of 24N, NW winds 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable less than 5 kt. N of 24N, W to NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NE swell. .THU NIGHT...Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming E to SE 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .FRI...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SAT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SUN...NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft S of 24N, and 6 to 8 ft N of 24N. $$ GMZ046-130315- Central Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 91W- 1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 .TODAY...W winds 10 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in NE swell. .TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt S of 24N, and SW to W 15 to 20 kt N of 24N. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NE swell. .THU...SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt S of 24N, and SW to W 15 to 20 kt N of 24N. Seas 5 to 7 ft in N swell. .THU NIGHT...SW to W winds 10 kt, shifting to SE to S late. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NW to N swell. .FRI...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SAT...SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SAT NIGHT...E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SUN...SE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to NE to E in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in SE swell. $$ GMZ047-130315- SE Gulf from 22N to 26N E of 87W including Straits of Florida- 1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 .TODAY...S of 24N, variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming SW to W 10 kt in the afternoon. N of 24N, S to SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in NE to E swell. .TONIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in NE swell. .THU...SW winds 10 kt S of 24N, and SW 15 to 20 kt N of 24N. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NW to N swell. .THU NIGHT...S to SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in W to NW swell. .FRI...SE to S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .FRI NIGHT...S of 24N, SE winds 10 to 15 kt. N of 24N, variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming SE 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SAT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. .SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SUN...S of 24N, SE winds 10 kt, shifting to NE in the afternoon. N of 24N, E to SE winds 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N to NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. $$ GMZ048-130315- SW Gulf S of 22N W of 94W- 1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 .TODAY...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .TONIGHT...N to NE winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .THU...Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .THU NIGHT...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .FRI...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SAT...SE to S winds 10 kt, shifting to NE to E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. .SUN...N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. $$ GMZ049-130315- Central Bay of Campeche- 1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 .TODAY...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. .TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .THU...Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming E to SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .THU NIGHT...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .FRI...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SAT...SE winds 15 to 20 kt, shifting to E to SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SUN...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. $$ GMZ050-130315- E Bay of Campeche including Campeche Bank- 1110 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023 .TODAY...Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft or less. .TONIGHT...W of 90W, NW to N winds 10 kt. E of 90W, NW to N winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .THU...W of 90W, variable winds less than 5 kt. E of 90W, variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming NW to N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .THU NIGHT...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .FRI...E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 to 20 kt, shifting to E to SE 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SAT...W of 90W, SE winds 15 to 20 kt, shifting to NE 10 kt in the afternoon. E of 90W, E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to E to SE late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SUN...SE winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to N in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. $$ Forecaster Hagen And a mention in the Tropical Weather Discussion Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between low pressure of 1010 mb centered in the central Gulf near 26N89W, with associated warm and stationary fronts and high pressure to its north and northeast east has resulted in a tight pressure gradient that is bringing strong to near-gale force east winds with gusts to gale-force over most of the north-central and NE Gulf waters. A recent ASCAT data pass over the NE and eastern Gulf clearly depicted these winds. These winds are forecast to generate seas in the range of 8-12 ft. Some of the observations from buoys and oil platforms over these areas of the Gulf have begun to reflect these wind conditions. The strong to gale-force winds will continue over the north- central and NE Gulf through tonight as the low tracks generally northward. The low will move inland over the U.S. north- central Gulf Coast on Thu. Once the low moves inland, marine conditions will improve Thu afternoon and evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Edited April 12, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 12, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 12, 2023 (edited) 35kt sustained at 20m Edited April 12, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 13, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 13, 2023 nightfall Still some winds >35kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 13, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 13, 2023 Looks inland this morning. Many buoys had sustained winds over 35kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 13, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 13, 2023 I'd worry about that line coming FL through for tornados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 13, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 13, 2023 (edited) Edited April 14, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 14, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 14, 2023 TWC and Colorado State April Hurricane Season outlook - looks fairly average and close to last year. TWC competing ideas are El Nino (less storms) and warm Atlantic (more storms) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 14, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted April 14, 2023 WESH in Orlando has their analysis with a near average amount of storms. 14-18 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes WJCL in Savannah put out their forecast in March. Looks very similar to WESH 🤔 TropicalStormRisk.com with their predictions - https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ NC State forecast via WFXR Accuweather's outlook They mention the African Easterly Jet as another factor beyond El Nino and warm SSTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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