February 22-24(?), 2023 | Strong/Severe Storms?

[ClicheVortex2014]

A lot of uncertainty about this next system. A big longwave trough dips into the western US, but severe potential could kick off as early as Wednesday. GFS has a pretty freaking ridiculous severe setup that reminds me a bit of Easter Sunday 2020. I don't buy it at this range, seems too crazy. Euro is more realistic but I think underdone a bit. Regardless, a large warm sector will be present ahead of a big ass western trough, so chances are some storms will happen. The question is the magnitude of the storms.

Comparison between GFS and Euro. GFS digs that shortwave way down into the warm sector. I don't think it's very realistic but we'll see.

 

A small dose of the absolute clown show that the GFS is putting on. Ridiculous hodograph, moderately unstable. Not a good combination. 

Area average sounding for west-central MS

 

Point-and-click for just west of the above using Euro. Again, ridiculous shear but much different thermo profile. This profile would be too capped/dry for storms, but as shown above, there's still a big trough to the west. So that just creates an issue for the 3 days afterward.

 

I think the most reasonable solution is between the two. I'm afraid that we'll end up with a more GFS-like thermo profile without the shear weakening too much. I don't trust Euro that much nowadays. 

Edited February 17, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

For Wednesday, do you think that it will kick off in Central and Eastern Oklahoma?

[ClicheVortex2014]

18 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

For Wednesday, do you think that it will kick off in Central and Eastern Oklahoma?

Depends on where the dryline sets up. Euro and GFS both initiate convection there but early in the day and probably just thunderstorms. Plenty of time for things to change, but what I don't think is going to change is that the worst of the storms will be east of there.

Edited February 18, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Depends on where the dryline sets up. Euro and GFS both initiate convection there but early in the day and probably just thunderstorms. Plenty of time for things to change, but what I don't think is going to change is that the worst of the storms will be east of there.

If this was April, I would be absolutely sweating bullets! And so would the Southeast as it could be a repeat of April 27th, 2011 and Easter 2020 all over again in terms of setup!

[ClicheVortex2014]

19 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

If this was April, I would be absolutely sweating bullets! And so would the Southeast as it could be a repeat of April 27th, 2011 and Easter 2020 all over again in terms of setup!

4/27/11 is in a league of two because the parameters were very high-end and the evolution of the day played out as flawless as it can get. On the other hand, most of the tornadoes from Easter 2020 were embedded within a squall... whether it was mesovortices or embedded supercells. But yeah, that was a prolific tornado day because of extreme shear and moderate instability. Both days were historic for a reason, though of different magnitudes of historic. I wouldn't expect another Easter 2020 to happen for a while. Overall though I agree, I wouldn't want to see this GFS-like setup any time of the year, much less in April.

What concerns me with this setup is the warm sector.... unseasonably broad and moist. Not like it's a mystery how... very obvious that several weak systems help draw moisture north before that beast of a low ejects. Still a pretty far way out so as of right now, a few things I can see help bust this event: dry air/capping/weak instability holds on (e.g., Euro), messy storm mode, or one of the weak systems prior to the big one actually pushes a cold front to the Gulf. 

 

Edited February 18, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Double post somehow

Edited February 18, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

This is the most spherical slight risk I have ever seen!

[ClicheVortex2014]

This system is no longer in fantasy range, despite what one would expect when you see a setup like this in February

 

Going out to Wednesday, we have this system producing precip literally from coast to coast

[ClicheVortex2014]

Thankfully GFS is trending toward a less favorable thermo profile for Wednesday. Weaker mid-level lapse rates. Shear is still extreme so it won't take much instability to get some severe weather.

SW MS

NE MS

Edited February 19, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

I can't see the images from the School Chromebook, it really does not like Imgur.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Already got gusts in the 40s here today... windier tomorrow, Tuesday even windier, and Wednesday the windiest. There's new lee cyclogenesis literally every day until Wednesday. No wonder there's so much moisture to the east.

Edited February 19, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

7 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Already got gusts in the 40s here today... windier tomorrow, Tuesday even windier, and Wednesday the windiest. There's new lee cyclogenesis literally every day until Wednesday. No wonder there's so much moisture to the east.

Still getting sustained winds in the mid to upper 20s, gusting 35-40 mph. Just when I thought I was starting to understand how to forecast winds here... ugh.

Record max low for tonight is 45 degrees... tonights forecast low is 49. Still 55 degrees right now. With the winds overachieving tonight, I have a feeling we won't get out of the 50s

[ElectricStorm]

Definitely trending much less impressive now, and SPC has downgraded to marginal so not really expecting anything major. 

For my area though this could end up being a decent rain event so hopefully we can get in on some of that. 

Might need to watch 2/26-27 for the next potential severe weather setup.

[ClicheVortex2014]

4 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

Definitely trending much less impressive now, and SPC has downgraded to marginal so not really expecting anything major. 

For my area though this could end up being a decent rain event so hopefully we can get in on some of that. 

Might need to watch 2/26-27 for the next potential severe weather setup.

Was pleasantly surprised to see the 00z GFS had a possible severe event to the eastern Texas Panhandle Sunday. Not surprised to see it go away already.

Edited February 20, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

Day 2 outlook upgrades back to slight and is in a completely different area than the previous outlooks. Maybe I can get a good birthday storm...

[Iceresistance]

The 25th to 27th appear to be unrelated to this one.

[Central Illinois]

Weather Radio just went off Tornado Watch till 6pm for MO/IL

Edited February 22, 2023 by Central Illinois

[Central Illinois]

[snowlover2]

Couple of tornado warnings west of St Louis.

[Iceresistance]

I hope your device is compatible for the cameras in Saint Louis, MO!

https://traveler.modot.org/map/index.html

[ak9971]

Well, based on current warning and the watch, looks like they nailed the location of the slight risk today. 

[Neoncyclone]

73 degrees, windy, with a tornado watch. If I didn't know any better I'd think it was April. Don't expect much in the way of severe weather as my location has pretty weak dewpoints and some veering winds.

[Gerb131]

brother west of STL had hail this morning and a tornado warning this afternoon. said the winds were a good 70+