Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 3, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 3, 2023 (edited) On Sunday, February 12th.. The Philadelphia Eagles will square off against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII.. and in all likelihood that will be the most exciting event of the weekend. As a history teacher by profession.. I did my best to find a connection, an analog.. unfortunately to no avail. If this winter storm were to occur, it would do so without much historical context. In times of desperation for snow lovers, that will do! Now.. for those officially waving the white flag on 2022-‘23, there did happen to be a favorable connection.. or coincidence.. but we won’t know which until next winter. The last two Super Bowls played in Glendale, Arizona were in ‘08 and ‘15. The following years, ‘09 and ‘16 featured some memorable winter storms. We can hope that ‘24 will follow that trend. Anyways.. back to the current speculative storm threat! It would be malpractice to suggest that there’s a lot to like about this; there just isn’t much to be excited about. With that being said, it’s just too boring to ignore even the longest of long-shots. So, we shall pursue it! The justification for this speculative threat can be found in the BSR and on the latest GFS, ECMWF, and EPS ensembles. The GDPS and remaining ensembles (GEFS and CMCE) have little to nothing, really emphasizing the speculative nature of this threat. There’s just not that much overall support. Even the teleconnections are largely flipped, with a +NAO, +AO, and +PNA (for now..). The MJO.. it’s in phases 3 and 4, opposite of a favorable position in phases 7 and 8. The lack of consistency from one model to the next, and across the models as a whole is discouraging as well. Despite the unfavorable conditions, I’m pulling for a winter storm to be manufactured from this pattern, even if as a surprise. Happy Tracking 🤓 12z EPS (Hours 192-240) 12z GFS Surface (Hours 192-240) 12z Comparison | Ensembles, Surface, & 500 MB (Hours 192-240) Spoiler Ensemble Comparison Surface Comparison 500 MB Comparison 12z GFS, ECMWF, & GDPS + Ensembles (Hours 192-240) Spoiler GFS Surface GFS 500 MB ECMWF Surface ECMWF 500 MB GDPS Surface GDPS 500 MB GEFS EPS CMCE 12z Teleconnections (BSR, MJO, +AO, +NAO, +PNA) Spoiler BSR MJO NAO Forecast AO Forecast PNA Forecast Edited February 8, 2023 by Penn State 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 3, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 3, 2023 Actually.. the 12z EPS looks even better to me, and I would argue is more important than the GFS surface depiction. There's a high pressure above Maine, and the mean MSLP track is off the coast. There's even a fair.. for this lead time.. amount of placement agreement. I definitely want to follow the trends on this, as it's nice to have something defined. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Penn State said: Actually.. the 12z EPS looks even better to me, and I would argue is more important than the GFS surface depiction. There's a high pressure above Maine, and the mean MSLP track is off the coast. There's even a fair.. for this lead time.. amount of placement agreement. I definitely want to follow the trends on this, as it's nice to have something defined. Yea, this has great op and ensemble support. Could this be our first big one of the year??? Only time will tell. But I am desperate, no denying that. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 3, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 3, 2023 Just now, PA road DAWG said: Yea, this has great op and ensemble support. Could this be our first big one of the year??? Only time will tell. But I am desperate, no denying that. I sure hope we get at least one larger storm this winter. I’ll be honest.. I had pretty much given up on anything substantial, but this is a glimmer of digital hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Penn State said: I sure hope we get at least one larger storm this winter. I’ll be honest.. I had pretty much given up on anything substantial, but this is a glimmer of digital hope. Ah, dont give up yet. Theres still a solid 1, 1.5 months left for many in the midAtl to get that random big one inbetween this horrid heat. 🙂 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 3, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Ah, dont give up yet. Theres still a solid 1, 1.5 months left for many in the midAtl to get that random big one inbetween this horrid heat. 🙂 Speaking of giving up.. there’s one guy I miss on the forums. Any way we can get Snobal over here? 😂 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley8778 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 This will happen because I'll be in Florida. I have figured for a while we'll finally break the snow drought when I'm out of town. 🤪 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 I wonder if this cold snap, short though it may be, can help cool the coastal waters just enough to help keep the onshore warm 850mb flow at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Gfs oddly stable the past 3ish runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 4, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Gfs oddly stable the past 3ish runs. It’s lulling us into a false sense of security.. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 4, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 4, 2023 It’s not very impressive.. for a sub 1000 MSLP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Euro playing along too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 30 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Euro playing along too. Nice to actually have the euro on board it's usually just the gfs playing with our minds in the longer ranger this year. Week to go so let's see. It is February where we get most of our bigger storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 (edited) Well in my memory we had a a snow storm 36nyears ago on Jan 25, 1987. Super Bowl Sunday. How I know I my wife sang were married 2weeks and1 day before . unusual in Dc areas that it was the first time we had back to back 8” snow storms within 3 days.Of each storm. further side note this was Giants Bills and the Norwood miss at end of game. I would like to have just the enough to have mote than a trace. ‘’looks good for most but our anti snow dome remains in full force down here. Edited February 4, 2023 by Wtkidz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 06z Gfs seems it on Saturday but not Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 4, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 4, 2023 I like the depth of this trough.. but I don’t believe it goes negative, and the little ball of energy is too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 4, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 4, 2023 (edited) The trend over the last 24 hours.. better heights to the west, or at least on par; however the ridge is moving east. Edited February 4, 2023 by Penn State Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 4, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 4, 2023 On the EPS.. there’s definitely still a good signal, and the ECMWF agreed. Trend in the mean MSLP has been to confirm the low and high overhead. Trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 4, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 4, 2023 GEFS is a little bit all over the place, but there are more members on the southern end now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 I wasnt going to be happy until the ICOn was on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 4, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I wasnt going to be happy until the ICOn was on board. I feel like it’s actually been a decent performer over the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 (edited) with that low placement it should be all snow in most of eastern,pa Edited February 4, 2023 by NEPAsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 4, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 4, 2023 Well.. there’s definitely a big storm on the GFS. Needs to be colder.. but.. big storm is there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, Penn State said: I feel like it’s actually been a decent performer over the past few years. Then you can understand why I wouldnt be happy until it was onboard. 😄 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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