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Spring 2023 | Outlooks and Discussions


ClicheVortex2014

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Meteorological spring is only a month away so why not?

This January has been the most tornadic since at least 2005. 168 tornado reports this January which is more typical of April.

Only January 2008 and 2017 are comparable. 2008 was the most tornadic year of the 21st century with a tornado season that lasted, really, the entire year. 2017 was extremely front-loaded but even the more lazy second half of the season was busy enough to keep the year above average throughout.

The easy counterpoint is 2012 and 2020. Both years nearly hit 100 tornado reports by the end of January and both saw an extremely active first half of spring but both ended 200-300 tornadoes below average. 

ENSO/PDO are pretty similar to all the years mentioned here, though the barrage of atmospheric rivers that California got earlier this month reminds me of 2017. It'll be interesting to see what happens this year.

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On 1/31/2023 at 12:22 PM, Al_Czervik said:

I would think the SER and the cold to the north west would offer up some bouts of severe storms/tornadoes.  

I’m going to second this thought in saying I think we’re going to see a quick and major start to the severe season this year in mid to late March. Meteorological Spring will still be cold IMO, but come astrological, we’re going to be seeing a huge clash of the air masses. Don’t know how April will shape up but I wonder if we’ll see a complete dissolution of La Niña at that point. 
 

Probably not but I expect a delayed spring here in the Great Lakes with a quick transition to summer come late April early May. Aka: past few springs lately in general. 
 

I’ve also been wondering if increased solar activity will have an impact on weather more so this year as we dive deeper into Solar Cycle 25. My understanding is yes

 

Edited by NWOhioChaser
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3 hours ago, NWOhioChaser said:

I’m going to second this thought in saying I think we’re going to see a quick and major start to the severe season this year in mid to late March. Meteorological Spring will still be cold IMO, but come astrological, we’re going to be seeing a huge clash of the air masses. Don’t know how April will shape up but I wonder if we’ll see a complete dissolution of La Niña at that point. 
 

Probably not but I expect a delayed spring here in the Midwest with a quick transition to summer come late April early May. Aka: past few springs lately in general. 
 

I’ve also been wondering if increased solar activity will have an impact on weather more so this year as we dive deeper into Solar Cycle 25. My understanding is yes

 

I know you generally have less experience for the Plains, but what do you think of that area in the Springtime? I haven't had quality and quantity Spring Storm Season since 2019. 2022 returned with the 'quality'.

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I honestly think Dixie Alley and Midwest will fairly be active this Spring tornado season. La Nina is fairly fading as we get into February and early March before ENSO Neutral takes over. It is generally fairly high enough that multiple/several severe storm events will take place. Dixie Alley (Southeast/Deep South) will be first up February into early March, then Midwest/Ohio Valley (but still Deep South/Southeast) early March through April, then basically the entire Midwest and Dixie by May 2023. There is GEFS and CFS patterns (along with ECMWF Monthly and CanSIPS), suggesting troughing in the western/central US, with ridging to the east, this makes up an favorable pattern for severe weather during months of February through May. Even still, the highest severe risk probabilities I think will be across the lower Ohio Valley/lower Midwest to the Deep South/Southeast. The potential remains fairly there for more tornado activity this spring season. 

Edited by TwisterW101
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4 hours ago, TwisterW101 said:

I honestly think Dixie Alley and Midwest will fairly be active this Spring tornado season. La Nina is fairly fading as we get into February and early March before ENSO Neutral takes over. It is generally fairly high enough that multiple/several severe storm events will take place. Dixie Alley (Southeast/Deep South) will be first up February into early March, then Midwest/Ohio Valley (but still Deep South/Southeast) early March through April, then basically the entire Midwest and Dixie by May 2023. There is GEFS and CFS patterns (along with ECMWF Monthly and CanSIPS), suggesting troughing in the western/central US, with ridging to the east, this makes up an favorable pattern for severe weather during months of February through May. Even still, the highest severe risk probabilities I think will be across the lower Ohio Valley/lower Midwest to the Deep South/Southeast. The potential remains fairly there for more tornado activity this spring season. 

What about Ohio specifically? Not OV but above I-70?

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I'm not as pessimistic about this year for the southern plains as I have been the last couple years. The drought in the SW is currently significantly less, and I feel like with the transition from La Niña to neutral this could be a solid year.

However, just like the past few years I think the deep south/Dixie Alley will be more active than the Plains again. 

If we can get a decent pattern like we had in April-early May 2022 I think this could be a good year for storms in the Plains. The only thing that held 2022 back here was the ridiculously strong EML at times that caused some really promising setups to become total cap busts. Assuming the SW drought remains less like it is right now, hopefully the cap won't be quite as strong. 

Yearly Disclaimer: Obviously I don't want any death or destruction, but hopefully we get some good storm setups but not necessarily tornado outbreaks.

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26 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

I'm not as pessimistic about this year for the southern plains as I have been the last couple years. The drought in the SW is currently significantly less, and I feel like with the transition from La Niña to neutral this could be a solid year.

However, just like the past few years I think the deep south/Dixie Alley will be more active than the Plains again. 

If we can get a decent pattern like we had in April-early May 2022 I think this could be a good year for storms in the Plains. The only thing that held 2022 back here was the ridiculously strong EML at times that caused some really promising setups to become total cap busts. Assuming the SW drought remains less like it is right now, hopefully the cap won't be quite as strong. 

Yearly Disclaimer: Obviously I don't want any death or destruction, but hopefully we get some good storm setups but not necessarily tornado outbreaks.

Yeah, but the drought monitor remains fairly evident for Plains to regain drought probabilities again. But however, you can still get severe storms even when inside a drought. Anything is possible.

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In my brief opinion, Dixie Alley and Midwest, along with Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and eastern portions of the southern Plains are at risk for greatest severe storms during the spring. The rest Southern Plains will likely be rain to strong storms with some severe storms possible. 
 

Patterns are suggesting this to occur soon. Temperatures will warm up across the central/southern US, along with lower Midwest very soon once mid-March comes in. The moisture is already gonna enter Dixie Alley/low MS Valley/ArkLaMiss frequently, before Ohio/Tennessee/MidMS Valleys next to get frequent moisture return soon after. Instability will also slowly rise to nearly 3000 J/kg in the Dixie Alley/Deep South for early Spring, before ramping northward by April.

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56 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Ryan Hall Y'all projects the Southern Plains to be the bullseye for this year.

We'll see, but I do feel like areas further east will be more of a bullseye than the Plains. 

That being said however, I do think we could see a more active season in the southern plains than the last few years (which to be fair, isn't really saying much, at least in terms of tornado activity) 

I wonder if we'll see a high risk this year. Every odd year recently starting in 2017 has had at least one with none of the even years having any. I think if we do see one, it'll be in April in the southeast. Just kind of an interesting little pattern going on 

Edited by OKwx_2001
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27 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

We'll see, but I do feel like areas further east will be more of a bullseye than the Plains. 

That being said however, I do think we could see a more active season in the southern plains than the last few years (which to be fair, isn't really saying much, at least in terms of tornado activity) 

I wonder if we'll see a high risk this year. Every odd year recently starting in 2017 has had at least one with none of the even years having any. I think if we do see one, it'll be in April in the southeast. Just kind of an interesting little pattern going on 

Not just that, the SW Drought is much weaker compared to last year. That is my main concern on why the 2023 Spring Storm Season could be crazier in the Southern and Central Plains.

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We've already seen quite a few Colorado lows the past 2-4 months and it seems like we should expect more over the next 2-4 months. 

Colorado lows result in classic tornado alley outbreaks. Not to mention tornado alley has been quiet for several years, they're due for an active season and it seems like a favorable synoptic scale pattern.

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2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Not just that, the SW Drought is much weaker compared to last year. That is my main concern on why the 2023 Spring Storm Season could be crazier in the Southern and Central Plains.

Yeah for sure, still have a big drought in the plains though but I'm not sure that would effect the setups as much, but I'm not an expert

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3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Not just that, the SW Drought is much weaker compared to last year. That is my main concern on why the 2023 Spring Storm Season could be crazier in the Southern and Central Plains.

The plains still have a drought which will have the EML stand by across the southern Plains. However, even so, you can still have severe storms in the southern plains w/ a drought. I do however, think the bullseye will be further east, like Southeast into the Midwest.

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