Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 31, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 31, 2023 Meteorological spring is only a month away so why not? This January has been the most tornadic since at least 2005. 168 tornado reports this January which is more typical of April. Only January 2008 and 2017 are comparable. 2008 was the most tornadic year of the 21st century with a tornado season that lasted, really, the entire year. 2017 was extremely front-loaded but even the more lazy second half of the season was busy enough to keep the year above average throughout. The easy counterpoint is 2012 and 2020. Both years nearly hit 100 tornado reports by the end of January and both saw an extremely active first half of spring but both ended 200-300 tornadoes below average. ENSO/PDO are pretty similar to all the years mentioned here, though the barrage of atmospheric rivers that California got earlier this month reminds me of 2017. It'll be interesting to see what happens this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 I am worried about this year's Spring Storm Season because the seemingly endless La Niña is dying and it's going to be replaced by an El Niño. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 I would think the SER and the cold to the north west would offer up some bouts of severe storms/tornadoes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 (edited) On 1/31/2023 at 12:22 PM, Al_Czervik said: I would think the SER and the cold to the north west would offer up some bouts of severe storms/tornadoes. I’m going to second this thought in saying I think we’re going to see a quick and major start to the severe season this year in mid to late March. Meteorological Spring will still be cold IMO, but come astrological, we’re going to be seeing a huge clash of the air masses. Don’t know how April will shape up but I wonder if we’ll see a complete dissolution of La Niña at that point. Probably not but I expect a delayed spring here in the Great Lakes with a quick transition to summer come late April early May. Aka: past few springs lately in general. I’ve also been wondering if increased solar activity will have an impact on weather more so this year as we dive deeper into Solar Cycle 25. My understanding is yes Edited February 2, 2023 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 3 hours ago, NWOhioChaser said: I’m going to second this thought in saying I think we’re going to see a quick and major start to the severe season this year in mid to late March. Meteorological Spring will still be cold IMO, but come astrological, we’re going to be seeing a huge clash of the air masses. Don’t know how April will shape up but I wonder if we’ll see a complete dissolution of La Niña at that point. Probably not but I expect a delayed spring here in the Midwest with a quick transition to summer come late April early May. Aka: past few springs lately in general. I’ve also been wondering if increased solar activity will have an impact on weather more so this year as we dive deeper into Solar Cycle 25. My understanding is yes I know you generally have less experience for the Plains, but what do you think of that area in the Springtime? I haven't had quality and quantity Spring Storm Season since 2019. 2022 returned with the 'quality'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwisterW101 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 (edited) I honestly think Dixie Alley and Midwest will fairly be active this Spring tornado season. La Nina is fairly fading as we get into February and early March before ENSO Neutral takes over. It is generally fairly high enough that multiple/several severe storm events will take place. Dixie Alley (Southeast/Deep South) will be first up February into early March, then Midwest/Ohio Valley (but still Deep South/Southeast) early March through April, then basically the entire Midwest and Dixie by May 2023. There is GEFS and CFS patterns (along with ECMWF Monthly and CanSIPS), suggesting troughing in the western/central US, with ridging to the east, this makes up an favorable pattern for severe weather during months of February through May. Even still, the highest severe risk probabilities I think will be across the lower Ohio Valley/lower Midwest to the Deep South/Southeast. The potential remains fairly there for more tornado activity this spring season. Edited February 2, 2023 by TwisterW101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 4 hours ago, TwisterW101 said: I honestly think Dixie Alley and Midwest will fairly be active this Spring tornado season. La Nina is fairly fading as we get into February and early March before ENSO Neutral takes over. It is generally fairly high enough that multiple/several severe storm events will take place. Dixie Alley (Southeast/Deep South) will be first up February into early March, then Midwest/Ohio Valley (but still Deep South/Southeast) early March through April, then basically the entire Midwest and Dixie by May 2023. There is GEFS and CFS patterns (along with ECMWF Monthly and CanSIPS), suggesting troughing in the western/central US, with ridging to the east, this makes up an favorable pattern for severe weather during months of February through May. Even still, the highest severe risk probabilities I think will be across the lower Ohio Valley/lower Midwest to the Deep South/Southeast. The potential remains fairly there for more tornado activity this spring season. What about Ohio specifically? Not OV but above I-70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 I'm not as pessimistic about this year for the southern plains as I have been the last couple years. The drought in the SW is currently significantly less, and I feel like with the transition from La Niña to neutral this could be a solid year. However, just like the past few years I think the deep south/Dixie Alley will be more active than the Plains again. If we can get a decent pattern like we had in April-early May 2022 I think this could be a good year for storms in the Plains. The only thing that held 2022 back here was the ridiculously strong EML at times that caused some really promising setups to become total cap busts. Assuming the SW drought remains less like it is right now, hopefully the cap won't be quite as strong. Yearly Disclaimer: Obviously I don't want any death or destruction, but hopefully we get some good storm setups but not necessarily tornado outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwisterW101 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 1 hour ago, NWOhioChaser said: What about Ohio specifically? Not OV but above I-70? I would say it’s definitely possible during the late Spring months (late March into May), north of I-70. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwisterW101 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 26 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: I'm not as pessimistic about this year for the southern plains as I have been the last couple years. The drought in the SW is currently significantly less, and I feel like with the transition from La Niña to neutral this could be a solid year. However, just like the past few years I think the deep south/Dixie Alley will be more active than the Plains again. If we can get a decent pattern like we had in April-early May 2022 I think this could be a good year for storms in the Plains. The only thing that held 2022 back here was the ridiculously strong EML at times that caused some really promising setups to become total cap busts. Assuming the SW drought remains less like it is right now, hopefully the cap won't be quite as strong. Yearly Disclaimer: Obviously I don't want any death or destruction, but hopefully we get some good storm setups but not necessarily tornado outbreaks. Yeah, but the drought monitor remains fairly evident for Plains to regain drought probabilities again. But however, you can still get severe storms even when inside a drought. Anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 1 hour ago, TwisterW101 said: Yeah, but the drought monitor remains fairly evident for Plains to regain drought probabilities again. But however, you can still get severe storms even when inside a drought. Anything is possible. 2011 featured an EF-5 tornado in El Reno, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwisterW101 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: 2011 featured an EF-5 tornado in El Reno, OK Yes ik, but this year will not be like 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwisterW101 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 In my brief opinion, Dixie Alley and Midwest, along with Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and eastern portions of the southern Plains are at risk for greatest severe storms during the spring. The rest Southern Plains will likely be rain to strong storms with some severe storms possible. Patterns are suggesting this to occur soon. Temperatures will warm up across the central/southern US, along with lower Midwest very soon once mid-March comes in. The moisture is already gonna enter Dixie Alley/low MS Valley/ArkLaMiss frequently, before Ohio/Tennessee/MidMS Valleys next to get frequent moisture return soon after. Instability will also slowly rise to nearly 3000 J/kg in the Dixie Alley/Deep South for early Spring, before ramping northward by April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Ryan Hall Y'all projects the Southern Plains to be the bullseye for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 (edited) 56 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Ryan Hall Y'all projects the Southern Plains to be the bullseye for this year. We'll see, but I do feel like areas further east will be more of a bullseye than the Plains. That being said however, I do think we could see a more active season in the southern plains than the last few years (which to be fair, isn't really saying much, at least in terms of tornado activity) I wonder if we'll see a high risk this year. Every odd year recently starting in 2017 has had at least one with none of the even years having any. I think if we do see one, it'll be in April in the southeast. Just kind of an interesting little pattern going on Edited February 6, 2023 by OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 27 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: We'll see, but I do feel like areas further east will be more of a bullseye than the Plains. That being said however, I do think we could see a more active season in the southern plains than the last few years (which to be fair, isn't really saying much, at least in terms of tornado activity) I wonder if we'll see a high risk this year. Every odd year recently starting in 2017 has had at least one with none of the even years having any. I think if we do see one, it'll be in April in the southeast. Just kind of an interesting little pattern going on Not just that, the SW Drought is much weaker compared to last year. That is my main concern on why the 2023 Spring Storm Season could be crazier in the Southern and Central Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 We've already seen quite a few Colorado lows the past 2-4 months and it seems like we should expect more over the next 2-4 months. Colorado lows result in classic tornado alley outbreaks. Not to mention tornado alley has been quiet for several years, they're due for an active season and it seems like a favorable synoptic scale pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Not just that, the SW Drought is much weaker compared to last year. That is my main concern on why the 2023 Spring Storm Season could be crazier in the Southern and Central Plains. Yeah for sure, still have a big drought in the plains though but I'm not sure that would effect the setups as much, but I'm not an expert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwisterW101 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Not just that, the SW Drought is much weaker compared to last year. That is my main concern on why the 2023 Spring Storm Season could be crazier in the Southern and Central Plains. The plains still have a drought which will have the EML stand by across the southern Plains. However, even so, you can still have severe storms in the southern plains w/ a drought. I do however, think the bullseye will be further east, like Southeast into the Midwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Signs are pointing to a very active start to the spring season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: Signs are pointing to a very active start to the spring season Already seeing a pretty good setup next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/spring-forecast-2023-la-nina-winter-pattern-extends-jet-stream-anomaly-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 That persistent western trough is going to be big trouble if it sticks around for the spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 17 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: That persistent western trough is going to be big trouble if it sticks around for the spring Could be seriously worrying when it's combined with the SE Ridge? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Oh, this does not look pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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