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January Mid/Long Range Outlook


PA road DAWG

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12z gfs was pretty decent. There will be a lot of opportunities, the pac jet will slow and bend so there will be improvements pattern wise. I like to take it threat by threat rather than a pattern guy. And we have lots of Chances coming with cold enough air in the vicinity for snow/ice/ mix events starting next week. I84 on N is favored IMO.

 

Here's the 12z gfs loop:

 

gfs-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-1673611200-1673838000-1674842400-40.thumb.gif.74e494a4781f7bf0c459d83f96f43e8c.gif

 

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3 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Well folks, I’ll be honest….This January might go down as the least snowiest in a vast majority of the northeast.    That dang southeast ridge just doesn’t want to go away.  
 

9098FB85-B1E3-4022-A00E-B10296FDD0F0.png

And let's not just leave out the EURO, it looks totally different same period.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-z500_anom-4907200.thumb.png.4819acbd56dc23aa47bba8483e47034f.png

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48 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

12z gfs was pretty decent. There will be a lot of opportunities, the pac jet will slow and bend so there will be improvements pattern wise. I like to take it threat by threat rather than a pattern guy. And we have lots of Chances coming with cold enough air in the vicinity for snow/ice/ mix events starting next week. I84 on N is favored IMO.

 

Here's the 12z gfs loop:

 

gfs-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-1673611200-1673838000-1674842400-40.thumb.gif.74e494a4781f7bf0c459d83f96f43e8c.gif

 

The Pattern just screams western apps and GLC runners.  We need to get some definitive changes out west before we can talk about us out east.  

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Yes my area gets thumped with snow to ice to drillze a lot on these types of patterns. Similar to what the 0z Canadian shows. Obviously I want pure snowstorms but I'll take any snow ice whatever at this point until we get something better. Interior cam still do okay. 

gem-all-ne-instant_ptype-4183600.thumb.png.e21ff793f3f8f05f49d3669e2360a1ff.png

 

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22 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Sorry, just not seeing it yet.  

There will be a lot of storms with some cold in Southern Canada so while not artic and frigid, certainly can get some events of frozen variety off the coast. More inland the better but I highly doubt it will be all rain every storm starting next week. 

500s don't tell you anything about CAD. So while valuable, on a case by case basis the surface needs to be looked at not just say oh well 500s say bad pattern = no snow.

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Hoping for snow threats too but I feel like this is the GLC pattern, maybe a one off.

Going to need all the ingredients to line up and put a storm on the coast, otherwise the west side of the apps is where these storms look to setup and that track just means sucking up warm air.

Edited by TLChip
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19 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

There’s a bunch of thread the needle type scenarios coming up, so we shall see.  Still not an ideal h5 flow though 

Exactly what I've been saying. Definitely potentials but not ideal, however can get some frozen events out of it. At least it's active and better than the past 2 weeks.

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GYX

Quote
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB pattern continues with split flow and very blocky, weak
flow through the end of the week at least. Some changes possible
this weekend as possible strong E Pacific ridging develops,
setting up a stronger +PNA pattern, followed by a developing
block over the Atlantic early next week and a possible -NAO.
Following the Euro this would portend more winter-like
conditions. However, the previous models run, showed nothing of
this sort, so confidence is low.

 

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3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

GYX

 

Ensembles are looking decent with blocking and PV drooping S into Canada providing the cold in the 7-14 day range. This is a look that will present opportunities, maybe not the perfect placement for the coast but it will definitely make for some winter in the East. Not bad IMO.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1673913600-1674388800-1675209600-40.thumb.gif.deb160c1ade6824ece7b815583dd03d1.gif

 

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